JRPGfan said:
I think he trolls on purpose. Half of his statements are "normal" (these are normally on point) and the other half are just to create buzz, about how crazy pachter is. |
This is exactly true. One part of this prediction, that Nintendo will miss their 20 million target, is not an unreasonable claim to make. It is entirely unreasonable to suggest that Switch is on track to ship 8 million units this year; it's a disingenuous claim which ignores seasonal sales trends and ignores that the current 5% shipment decline year-over-year would have to become a 45% decline in order for this claim to hold any merit. Even if you extrapolated from the first quarter shipments that Switch will be down 5% year over year, that would still leave Switch on track to 14.8 million units for the financial year.
He's deliberately framed a reasonable prediction with an eye-catching figure to rile people and generate hits. He's also vague about Nintendo's strategy and sales targets - he suggests that Nintendo have no strategy despite the success of Switch so far, mentions price as a major issue and argues Nintendo will miss 20 million "by a mile". What, exactly, is "a mile" in this context? Anything below 16 million would clearly be a disappointment; anything over 18 million would have to be seen as a success, I'd argue. Let's not forget Pachter said very similar things 18 months ago before Switch launched - he predicted 1 million shipments for launch and 5 million shipments for the first full financial year; needless to say, he was way off on both counts.