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Forums - Sales Discussion - How Much Do You Expect the Nintendo Switch to Sell Lifetime?

 

How Much Do You Expect the Nintendo Switch to Sell Lifetime?

Less Than 35 Million 74 3.82%
 
35-50 Million 155 8.01%
 
51-65 Million 209 10.80%
 
66-80 Million 461 23.82%
 
81-95 Million 448 23.15%
 
96-110 Million 343 17.73%
 
111-125 Million 91 4.70%
 
126-140 Million 47 2.43%
 
141-155 Million 18 0.93%
 
More Than 155 Million 89 4.60%
 
Total:1,935
Lawlight said:

Less than the 3DS.

OK, this is safe enough to make a bet. How is it we make it about 3 months bronze tier supporter of VGC. As I'm already a supporter, if you lose you have to gift it to a user of my choice. What do you say, feel confident enough to make that bet?



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

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My original prediction before the Switch launched was 60-80 million. This is still plausible, so I don't want to change it yet. However, I'm leaning more towards 80 million now, and I can see it selling up to 100 million if Nintendo keeps making the right decisions and keeps putting out great games.



Miyamotoo said:
Lawlight said:

We’ll see. Official Switch shipment numbers are outpacing the 3DS shipment numbers by 3.5% but the 3DS had its life prolonged thanks to Pokemon Go.

And what the end of the Switch’s second full year is basically half its life.

Until now, but that difference is getting bigger, Switch is getting momentum, for instance it had best July month in US in last 8 years in gaming. Switch will not have typical life of Nintendo home console, it will have life span similar to handheld and 3DS because of its hybrid nature and future revisions, Nintendo said they want Switch to have longer life span than typical 6 years.

The 360 and Wii have the best July in history and yet the PS4 will eclipse both so that doesn’t mean much. And it is not up to Nintendo to determine the life span of a system - it’s up to the market. The Swith may be gaining momentum but so far it’s basically neck and neck with the 3DS as far as we know based on the numbers that we have.



Mnementh said:
Lawlight said:

Less than the 3DS.

OK, this is safe enough to make a bet. How is it we make it about 3 months bronze tier supporter of VGC. As I'm already a supporter, if you lose you have to gift it to a user of my choice. What do you say, feel confident enough to make that bet?

It’s a fair and safe bet for me but I don’t want to give my details to this site. The other thing is that it’s a bet that’s going to sit around for 3-4 years. How about an account ban? Like a 3-month ban or longer. Can that be done?



Lawlight said:
Miyamotoo said:

Until now, but that difference is getting bigger, Switch is getting momentum, for instance it had best July month in US in last 8 years in gaming. Switch will not have typical life of Nintendo home console, it will have life span similar to handheld and 3DS because of its hybrid nature and future revisions, Nintendo said they want Switch to have longer life span than typical 6 years.

The 360 and Wii have the best July in history and yet the PS4 will eclipse both so that doesn’t mean much. And it is not up to Nintendo to determine the life span of a system - it’s up to the market. The Swith may be gaining momentum but so far it’s basically neck and neck with the 3DS as far as we know based on the numbers that we have.

Switch is going to destroy 3DS' second full fiscal year and is notably outpacing it in the US NPD. 3DS 2012 is getting its ass whupped by Switch 2018. 

The fact is the Switch is selling virtually identical to the PS4 actually. It's US sales are trending much more in line with the PS4. 

In Europe we don't get regular hardware sales unfortunately but we can see Switch is showing software dominance and likely hardware sales, look at the Spain chart 8 top 10 games are Switch games, the last two charts from France show a clean sweep top 5 of all Switch games, even in the UK the top selling individual format game is Mario Kart 8 and half the top team individual SKUs are Switch games. We see Italy and Germany software sales charts dominated by Switch games too. 3DS was never performing like that in Europe. 

Switch will fucking demolish 3DS' peak year of 13.95 million. Abs-fucking-lutely demolishing that by 4-6 million this fiscal year and this fiscal year likely is not going to be the peak Switch year either. Labo hasn't broken out, most of the lineup this year is just Wii U ports so far and they are still going to demolish the 3DS' peak year. 

Anyone who thinks this another 3DS simply is not paying attention to what's actually going on. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 21 August 2018

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Lawlight said:
Miyamotoo said:

Until now, but that difference is getting bigger, Switch is getting momentum, for instance it had best July month in US in last 8 years in gaming. Switch will not have typical life of Nintendo home console, it will have life span similar to handheld and 3DS because of its hybrid nature and future revisions, Nintendo said they want Switch to have longer life span than typical 6 years.

The 360 and Wii have the best July in history and yet the PS4 will eclipse both so that doesn’t mean much.

And it is not up to Nintendo to determine the life span of a system - it’s up to the market. The Swith may be gaining momentum but so far it’s basically neck and neck with the 3DS as far as we know based on the numbers that we have.

That don't take anything for my point, my point is that Switch is getting momentum.

Lol, of course it's up to Nintendo to decide life span of system, if they continue releasing games and revisions and not successor to Switch, it will have longer life span of course. Actually its neck to neck with PS4 sales in same time period, Switch start destroying 3DS sales espacily in US and Europe, and again thats without any price cut while 3DS had huge price cut only 6 months after launch.



Miyamotoo said:
Lawlight said:

The 360 and Wii have the best July in history and yet the PS4 will eclipse both so that doesn’t mean much.

And it is not up to Nintendo to determine the life span of a system - it’s up to the market. The Swith may be gaining momentum but so far it’s basically neck and neck with the 3DS as far as we know based on the numbers that we have.

That don't take anything for my point, my point is that Switch is getting momentum.

Lol, of course it's up to Nintendo to decide life span of system, if they continue releasing games and revisions and not successor to Switch, it will have longer life span of course. Actually its neck to neck with PS4 sales in same time period, Switch start destroying 3DS sales espacily in US and Europe, and again thats without any price cut while 3DS had huge price cut only 6 months after launch.

Actually, you’re saying that the Switch is gaining momentum but I’m looking at official numbers and am not seeing it so far. When that happens, then yeah, the Switch would have gained momentum but so far we’re not seeing it.



81-95 million. Nintendo tend to release consoles quicker than Sony and Microsoft. I also think that the xbox 2 and PS5 will play a part in the latter stages of the Switch's sales life. People always want the shiny new toy. If I had to pick a solid number, 82 million.



Lawlight said:
Miyamotoo said:

That don't take anything for my point, my point is that Switch is getting momentum.

Lol, of course it's up to Nintendo to decide life span of system, if they continue releasing games and revisions and not successor to Switch, it will have longer life span of course. Actually its neck to neck with PS4 sales in same time period, Switch start destroying 3DS sales espacily in US and Europe, and again thats without any price cut while 3DS had huge price cut only 6 months after launch.

Actually, you’re saying that the Switch is gaining momentum but I’m looking at official numbers and am not seeing it so far. When that happens, then yeah, the Switch would have gained momentum but so far we’re not seeing it.

You dont see it that!? Look at NPD sales from June and July, YoY up for both months, Switch sales are very steady in Japan also last month or two with around 50k without huge system seller game, its obvous that Switch getting momentum slowly entering Holiday season when will explode with Pokemon and Smash in November and December.



Soundwave said:
Lawlight said:

The 360 and Wii have the best July in history and yet the PS4 will eclipse both so that doesn’t mean much. And it is not up to Nintendo to determine the life span of a system - it’s up to the market. The Swith may be gaining momentum but so far it’s basically neck and neck with the 3DS as far as we know based on the numbers that we have.

Switch is going to destroy 3DS' second full fiscal year and is notably outpacing it in the US NPD. 3DS 2012 is getting its ass whupped by Switch 2018. 

The fact is the Switch is selling virtually identical to the PS4 actually. It's US sales are trending much more in line with the PS4. 

In Europe we don't get regular hardware sales unfortunately but we can see Switch is showing software dominance and likely hardware sales, look at the Spain chart 8 top 10 games are Switch games, the last two charts from France show a clean sweep top 5 of all Switch games, even in the UK the top selling individual format game is Mario Kart 8 and half the top team individual SKUs are Switch games. We see Italy and Germany software sales charts dominated by Switch games too. 3DS was never performing like that in Europe. 

Switch will fucking demolish 3DS' peak year of 13.95 million. Abs-fucking-lutely demolishing that by 4-6 million this fiscal year and this fiscal year likely is not going to be the peak Switch year either. Labo hasn't broken out, most of the lineup this year is just Wii U ports so far and they are still going to demolish the 3DS' peak year. 

Anyone who thinks this another 3DS simply is not paying attention to what's actually going on. 

I was watching Pekin Express on M6, a French TV channel recently when I was away recently and the number of Switch ads shown was astounding. Nintendo are marketing the Switch like crazy in Europe and it’s still hasn’t caught the PS4’s sales yet. Not to mention that people are swiftly moving to digital on the PS4 so looking at retail charts is pointless these days.

But if you think the Switch will sell 100M or so, you’re free to do that.