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Forums - Sales Discussion - How Much Do You Expect the Nintendo Switch to Sell Lifetime?

 

How Much Do You Expect the Nintendo Switch to Sell Lifetime?

Less Than 35 Million 74 3.82%
 
35-50 Million 155 8.01%
 
51-65 Million 209 10.80%
 
66-80 Million 461 23.82%
 
81-95 Million 448 23.15%
 
96-110 Million 343 17.73%
 
111-125 Million 91 4.70%
 
126-140 Million 47 2.43%
 
141-155 Million 18 0.93%
 
More Than 155 Million 89 4.60%
 
Total:1,935
MasonADC on 20 August 2018
BoseDK said:
I can see it barely hitting 80 million. Nintendo consoles tend to have a sharp decline in sales compared to Playstations, I don't think it'll have the legs of PS4.
I'd say it's already had it's peak year in 2017 if you consider it sold what it did in 10 months. I highly doubt it'll sell that much again.

It will definitely outsell 2017 this year and next. 



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Mnementh on 20 August 2018
Mummelmann said:
Miyamotoo said:
IMO still too early to predict, depends from numbers of revisions and how long life span, IMO definatly 80m+, but where could end up really I can't really tell yet, I voted for 81-95 millions option.

Kinda agree with this, still too early, it's a fairly young console.

For the record; I chose the same option, 81-95 million. Interesting that over 80% believe it'll sell 100 million or more, seems like a lot of fairly high expectations for this machine. It has good appeal, but still needs constant attention to maintain momentum, let's give Nintendo at least another two-three quarters to show their mettle and what they have in store for us. Regardless of lifetime sales, I'm glad it's doing well and offering something else, like I said throughout the 7th gen; I dislike complacency being rewarded (in regard to the relatively impressive PS3 and 360 sales).

I don't know where you take this 80% from, this poll has less than 30% with predictions over 100M. Did you confuse it with the result of the PS4-poll, which is posted in the OP?



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TruckOSaurus on 20 August 2018

We should definitely run this series of polls about once a year, to see how people's perspective change with time (and more data).

Also, I would love to see the logic behind to less than 35 million votes for Switch and less than 90 million for PS4.



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Dr.Vita on 20 August 2018

Slightly below PSP, around 75-80M.




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Playstation Vita Media Create Sales (2014 vs 2015 vs 2016)
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DonFerrari on 20 August 2018

I think about 80M is a good projection until we can be more certain of how long in the market it will be and what models will be counted on it.



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Mummelmann on 20 August 2018
Mnementh said:
Mummelmann said:

Kinda agree with this, still too early, it's a fairly young console.

For the record; I chose the same option, 81-95 million. Interesting that over 80% believe it'll sell 100 million or more, seems like a lot of fairly high expectations for this machine. It has good appeal, but still needs constant attention to maintain momentum, let's give Nintendo at least another two-three quarters to show their mettle and what they have in store for us. Regardless of lifetime sales, I'm glad it's doing well and offering something else, like I said throughout the 7th gen; I dislike complacency being rewarded (in regard to the relatively impressive PS3 and 360 sales).

I don't know where you take this 80% from, this poll has less than 30% with predictions over 100M. Did you confuse it with the result of the PS4-poll, which is posted in the OP?

Haha, it seems I did!



123Lucas on 20 August 2018

Perhaps 70-80 million.



Ryng on 20 August 2018

120 million for me.

So 111-125 million range.



Cerebralbore101 on 21 August 2018

I expect Switch to average around 200,000 units sold per week until 2023. The average may seem a bit high, but you gotta account for holiday sales. There's probably enough of a handheld market for Nintendo to still sell to 50 million handheld users. A non-crappy Nintendo home-only console would probably sell around 20 to 25 million lifetime. Switch grabs both these markets for a cool 75 million sold worldwide. Sure there's some crossover such as many 3DS owners also happening to own a Wii U, but having all their games on one system will allow Nintendo to attract a lot of lapsed fans, that would have passed on a 3DS2, or a Wii U2.

Anyway I voted 81 million.

Switch won't have a problem competing with XB2 or PS5. They won't make a portable sytem, since they're both about power. And Switch is good enough to be a secondary system for many PC/Xbox/Sony gamers.



BoseDK on 21 August 2018
MasonADC said:
BoseDK said:
I can see it barely hitting 80 million. Nintendo consoles tend to have a sharp decline in sales compared to Playstations, I don't think it'll have the legs of PS4.
I'd say it's already had it's peak year in 2017 if you consider it sold what it did in 10 months. I highly doubt it'll sell that much again.

It will definitely outsell 2017 this year and next. 

In total sales probably. In 2017 it sold 13 million according to VGC numbers, but it did that in 10 months.

From March-July in 2017 it sold 4.8 million, this year it has sold 4 million in the same timeframe. So it's lagging by almost 20%.

Now it has to sell a million more in the remaining 5 months than it did last year which was around 8.5 million. I just don't see it selling much more than it did last year from now till December.