The NFL Thread 2018: The New England Patriots win Super Bowl LIII

BlowoverKing

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BlowoverKing on 17 September 2018

God damn it, I'm going to lose this week in Fantasy because I didn't switch out Devonta Freeman.

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MTZehvor

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MTZehvor on 18 September 2018

If week 1 was a relatively positive start for the prediction league, week 2 quickly served as a reminder that the early season NFL is as unpredictable as ever.

Username	Week 2	PP
noname2200	11-4	4
BlowoverKing	10-6	2
Level1Death	9-7	1
ljigga	9-7	1
cycycychris	9-7	1
X84	9-7	1
SpokenTruth	9-7	1
Rolstoppable	8-7	0
MTZehvor	8-8	1
burninmylight	8-8	0
Angelus	8-8	0
TheGoldenBoy	8-8	0
Chris Hu	6-10	0
Farsala	6-10	0
LudicrousSpeed	6-10	0
Carl	3-13	0
NobleTeam360	0-15	0
Snoopy	0-15	0

The league's newcomer, noname2200, showed up to post the best record at 11-5, followed by BlowoverKing at 10-6. After that, a lot of 9-7s and 8-8s. After going 10-6 and finishing in 2nd in Week 1, Carl had the unfortunate distinction of posting the worst record I've ever seen for someone predicting all 16 games.

#	Username	Record	Pct.	PP	#1-3	#1	#2	#3	PR	PW
1	MTZehvor	19-13	0.594	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
2	Level1Death	19-13	0.594	2	1	0	1	0	0	0
2	ljigga	19-13	0.594	2	1	0	1	0	0	0
4	Rolstoppable	18-13	0.581	2	1	0	1	0	0	0
5	cycycychris	18-14	0.563	1	1	0	0	1	0	0
5	X84	18-14	0.563	1	1	0	0	1	0	0
7	burninmylight	17-15	0.531	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
7	SpokenTruth	17-15	0.531	1	1	0	0	1	0	0
9	BlowoverKing	17-15	0.531	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	TheGoldenBoy	17-15	0.531	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Chris Hu	15-17	0.469	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Farsala	15-17	0.469	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Angelus	14-18	0.438	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	LudicrousSpeed	14-18	0.438	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Carl	13-19	0.406	2	1	0	1	0	0	0
16	noname2200	11-20	0.355	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
17	NobleTeam360	9-22	0.281	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Snoopy	8-23	0.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Unsurprisingly, things are very tight after two weeks. Despite going 8-8, I managed to hold onto first for one more week thanks to holding a slim PP advantage over Level1Death and ljigga. 8 people are within two games of first, so expect things to keep changing as we start to figure out who's actually good this year and who isn't. As always, please look over your numbers and let me know if there's anything wrong. The google sheet is right here.

Week 3 Schedule:

NYJ@CLE	BUF@MIN	NYG@HOU	GB@WAS
SF@KC	OAK@MIA	IND@PHI	TEN@JAX
CIN@CAR	LAC@LAR	CHI@ARI	DAL@SEA
DEN@BAL	NO@ATL	NE@DET	PIT@TB	by

Last edited by MTZehvor - on 18 September 2018

XD84

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XD84 on 18 September 2018

NYJ@CLE	2	BUF@MIN	2	NYG@HOU	2	GB@WAS	1
SF@KC	2	OAK@MIA	2	IND@PHI	2	TEN@JAX	2
CIN@CAR	2	LAC@LAR	2	CHI@ARI	1	DAL@SEA	2
DEN@BAL	2	NO@ATL	2	NE@DET	1	PIT@TB	1 by 7

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TheGoldenBoy on 18 September 2018

NYJ@CLE	2	BUF@MIN	2	NYG@HOU	2	GB@WAS	1
SF@KC	2	OAK@MIA	1	IND@PHI	2	TEN@JAX	2
CIN@CAR	2	LAC@LAR	2	CHI@ARI	1	DAL@SEA	2
DEN@BAL	2	NO@ATL	2	NE@DET	1	PIT@TB	PIT by 10

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LudicrousSpeed on 18 September 2018

lol Browns need to fire their entire front office. Ok I can see wanting to trade Gordon instead of cutting him but give him to New England? I guess they have no desire to do anything in the AFC.

Carl

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Carl on 18 September 2018

That's embarrassing.

LudicrousSpeed

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LudicrousSpeed on 18 September 2018

Yeah I was 9-7 this week not 6-10.

Chris Hu

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Chris Hu on 18 September 2018

NYJ@CLE	1	BUF@MIN	2	NYG@HOU	2	GB@WAS	1
SF@KC	2	OAK@MIA	2	IND@PHI	2	TEN@JAX	2
CIN@CAR	2	LAC@LAR	2	CHI@ARI	1	DAL@SEA	1
DEN@BAL	1	NO@ATL	2	NE@DET	1	PIT@TB	2 by 3

MTZehvor

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MTZehvor on 19 September 2018

LudicrousSpeed said:
Yeah I was 9-7 this week not 6-10.

My bad; I swapped yours and ljigga's scores. Should be fixed now.

RolStoppable said:

Yeah... no. I have to step in here. You are sloppy and some of your decisions don't sit well with me.

1. I am sure you remember that I told you that not counting TNF is a dumb idea. Just look at my record above and how my percentage is better than other people's. When you create a situation where making no pick can be an advantage over making a pick, you are doing it wrong. Everyone's win-loss record should have a tally of 32 games at this point. What's more, I made a pick for TNF. That you don't write my username with a capital S is the least of all issues.

2. I am sure you remember the example Farsala gave you for the distribution of PP. In week 2 you lucked out with your system, because the third-best records are receiving 1 PP. But it's much more common that things play out like in Farsala's example, so in most weeks nobody would get 1 PP for their performance under your system. Much of how I designed the prediction league had to do with allowing people to have small successes throughout the season to keep them motivated and in turn reduce the number of people who quit. You should really redo the results for week 1 and keep the PP system that has been used throughout the years. It's still early enough in the season to make that change.

3. You have multiple people in the standings where their record and distribution of PP is incorrect. ljigga is 16-16 according to the weekly predictions tab, but the standings have him at 19-13. Conversely, LudicrousSpeed is 17-15 according to predictions, but 14-18 in the standings; it looks like you mixed up their lines with each other, so one mistake affected two people. While you did get Level1Death's record correct, his PP stats do not show that he has 3 PP in total after 1 second-place and 1 third-place finish through two weeks. I haven't looked at everyone's stats, so what I posted here is not a comprehensive list; maybe there are more things wrong, maybe not. However, what I pointed out throughout this post is already enough to make it clear that you have to be more thorough.

Oh, and your perfect prediction for MNF wasn't counted towards your PP total either. At least we know that you aren't trying to cheat us, rather the problem is that your method to carry over and update PP statlines needs improvement. Feel free to ask me in general about how I did things and why I made the rules the way I made them.

1) While I appreciate your feedback, this is something that I'm simply going to disagree on. I apologize for missing your pick and I've added it to the total (part of why I encouraged people heavily to check the results was I didn't get a chance to compile the predictions until Friday), but as far as not counting picks for the BAL/CIN game, that's the decision I'm sticking with as the league manager.

2) I specifically asked if people would prefer that I change things back to the older way, and nobody really responded with a "yes/no" save for Farsala saying that he didn't mind as long as things were consistent. As I stated previously, I have no problem switching things back if that's what people want (although I'm rather skeptical of PP being what motivates people to stick around); but I have to be told or else I'm just going to keep things as is.

I've gone over the sheet again, and I believe everything should be fine now. I've held off on updating PP stuff until we decide on a system to use. If anyone else wants to offer feedback on this, I'm all ears.