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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: The 3DS will be discontinued by E3 2019

I think a better bet would be that Nintendo will stop publishing games for the 3DS by E3 2019.



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Every year new kids are born. And every year a new group of kids reaches the age where they can play Pokemon for the first time. Parents are looking for an affordable system so that their kids can play Pokemon. This system is the 3DS. The 3DS cannot be discontinued until 1) Switch has it's own Pokemon game and 2) Switch is more affordable. Until both of these things happen there will be a market for the 3DS.



Well, I was right (kind of). Ten months ago minus 1 day, I predicted that the 3DS would be discontinued by E3 2019. While the console itself has not ended production, Nintendo themselves are no longer supporting the system with first party titles. Third party developers are confirmed to still be making games for the console, but there likely wont be anything huge coming for the rest of its lifespan. And this news is coming a little under 2 weeks before Nintendo's E3 presentation. Sure, there are finer details you could argue, but Im saying I called it.

Source:
http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2019/04/nintendo_has_lnothing_newr_to_announce_for_3ds_in_terms_of_first-party_game_releases



Yerm said:

I firmly believe that by the time E3 2019 rolls around, Nintendo will come out and say the 3DS is being discontinued. Already there is enough evidence regarding Nintendo's behavior that points to them being ready to retire the console. 

The first major point is the life span of Nintendo's other handhelds, which accounting for mid-generation refreshes, gives each console a 3-44 year lifespan. The DS was released in 2004, then the DSi in 2008, the 3DS in 2011, and the N3DS in 2015. By E3 2019 the New 3DS will be over 4 years old in all regions, making it a good time for a new handheld, or just discontinuing the line, which is the route i think they will take.

Not only that but Nintendo is demonstrating a lot of the same behaviors that they usually show when a console is nearing the end of its lifespan. They outright said that they have plans to continue supporting the 3DS is 2019 alongside the Switch, but this doesnt mean much since they say this all the time and never live up to it. They said the GBA would receive support after the DS was released, which it didnt. they also said the Wii U would still receive support after the Switch released, which it didnt. So why should now be any different? 

Even considering how the audience reacts to 3DS game announcements is a big red flag for the console. People simply do not want to spend more money on 3DS games, myself included, and I know far too many people who feel the same. The switch has redefined handheld consoles, so seeing dedicated handheld games feels like a missed opportunity, like the games could have been better if they were made for the Switch. Even GameFreak is jumping ship by now making the Switch the new home for Pokemon game releases. so in the scenario where Nintendo doesnt abandon the 3DS and/or makes another handheld console, it will be Nintendo's first handheld EVER to not have a pokemon game. the games which move more software sales than any other on Nintendo's handhelds, would not be there. 

so im firmly stapling my prediction in now. By 2019 Nintendo will formally announce the 3DS is discontinued

The issue with comparing this situation to the past is that we haven't had a hybrid device like this before. It's hard to tell what Nintendo will do going forward, but I suspect you're correct.

Edit: I didn't realize this thread was so old lol



Yerm said:
Well, I was right (kind of). Ten months ago minus 1 day, I predicted that the 3DS would be discontinued by E3 2019. While the console itself has not ended production, Nintendo themselves are no longer supporting the system with first party titles. Third party developers are confirmed to still be making games for the console, but there likely wont be anything huge coming for the rest of its lifespan. And this news is coming a little under 2 weeks before Nintendo's E3 presentation. Sure, there are finer details you could argue, but Im saying I called it.

Source:
http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2019/04/nintendo_has_lnothing_newr_to_announce_for_3ds_in_terms_of_first-party_game_releases

That's not what discontinued means...



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Yerm said:
Well, I was right (kind of). Ten months ago minus 1 day, I predicted that the 3DS would be discontinued by E3 2019. While the console itself has not ended production, Nintendo themselves are no longer supporting the system with first party titles. Third party developers are confirmed to still be making games for the console, but there likely wont be anything huge coming for the rest of its lifespan. And this news is coming a little under 2 weeks before Nintendo's E3 presentation. Sure, there are finer details you could argue, but Im saying I called it.

Source:
http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2019/04/nintendo_has_lnothing_newr_to_announce_for_3ds_in_terms_of_first-party_game_releases

Lol no. You are wrong. They took a small step toward discontinuation, but saying you're right is like saying cars with automatic braking sensors = SELF DRIVING CARS WOOOOO!



 SW-5120-1900-6153

This thread didnt age well....



Pocky Lover Boy! 

RolStoppable said:

You are verifiably wrong because you predicted a formal announcement of discontinuation by Nintendo. That was a clearly defined goal and it didn't happen.

thetonestarr said:

Lol no. You are wrong. They took a small step toward discontinuation, but saying you're right is like saying cars with automatic braking sensors = SELF DRIVING CARS WOOOOO!

BraLoD said:
Unless they do announce its discountinuation by E3 you are wrong.
You predicted that and it still did not happen.
Sadly you already necrobumbed it yourself, so let's hope you end up actually being right.

Okay, let's actually pick this apart a bit more. Sure, I will admit I was wrong and that 3DS units will still be in production through E3 2019. But, this is Nintendo we are talking about. DS production ended very soon after the 3DS launched. The Wii ended only 11 months after the Wii U launched. And the Wii U ended even before the Switch launched. It is honestly a miracle that the 3DS survived 2 whole years into the Switch's lifespan, but considering it is the first hybrid console, there is a bit more leeway.

But hearing that Nintendo is not producing 3DS software anymore is as good as saying it will be dead VERY soon. No upcoming software means there is no money in marketing the thing. When the holiday season comes, they are going to want to push the 3DS to the back and focus on the Switch. The absolute latest it will be supported is through February, more realistically they will say new units will stop being produced in November, or even October. And it is all but a given that production is already ramping down. 



RolStoppable said:
Yerm said:

Okay, let's actually pick this apart a bit more. Sure, I will admit I was wrong and that 3DS units will still be in production through E3 2019. But, this is Nintendo we are talking about. DS production ended very soon after the 3DS launched. The Wii ended only 11 months after the Wii U launched. And the Wii U ended even before the Switch launched. It is honestly a miracle that the 3DS survived 2 whole years into the Switch's lifespan, but considering it is the first hybrid console, there is a bit more leeway.

But hearing that Nintendo is not producing 3DS software anymore is as good as saying it will be dead VERY soon. No upcoming software means there is no money in marketing the thing. When the holiday season comes, they are going to want to push the 3DS to the back and focus on the Switch. The absolute latest it will be supported is through February, more realistically they will say new units will stop being produced in November, or even October. And it is all but a given that production is already ramping down. 

Now you are basically agreeing with what most people told you a year ago when you made this thread. Of course production has been decreasing when Nintendo's forecast for this fiscal year is only 1m units.

A year ago most people were certain it would continue into 2020, some saying 2021 was even a possibility, which it absolutely wont. The end of fiscal year 2019 is the latest it will reasonably last.



It's very possible most or all 3DS models will be discontinued this year. My current bet would be Q1 2020, so right around the end of the fiscal year or sooner. I think Nintendo wants to make new models for one last holiday season. Mario Kart 7 alone has sold at least 10k+ worldwide each holiday season the past few years.

The last DS models were discontinued in 2013. Granted the DS sold about double the 3DS, but the 3DS is backwards compatible with the DS. So the 3DS still has a bit of purpose, since it's a pure handheld with no way to play its games on the Switch.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima