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Nintendo Financial Results: Switch sales top 19.67m, Mario Tennis 1.38m, DK TF 1.4m, more

Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Financial Results: Switch sales top 19.67m, Mario Tennis 1.38m, DK TF 1.4m, more

Barkley said:

It's a bit weird they're sticking to a 20m forecast, if we compare to PlayStation.

PS4 : Q1 - 3.2m. Forecast - 17m
Switch : Q1 - 1.88m Forecast - 20m

The forecast is 3m higher but they're already 1.3m behind, are they really going to outship PS4 by 4.3m over the next 3 quarters?

Sure I think their FY shipments will be more skewed towards the holiday than PlayStation but not by enough to reach 20m.

Ive said in the past I expected them to overshoot but still reach 20m. (18.5m to consumers, 20m shipped for the fiscal year) but I don't think I believe they're going to do that anymore.

I think the holidays could have a 10+ million shipment. I think a good comparison is Wii in FY ending March 2010.

Q1-2.23

Q2-3.52

Q3-11.31

Q4-3.48

FY-20.54



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
Green098 said:

I think it'll still be close enough to not be down LTD. Switch doing at least 2.52 for FY3Q2 is quite possible and a Direct in September could, like E3, continue the upwards sales trend as Switch hits the heavy push in Quarter 3 (October-December).

Agreed, i meant just the one quarter.

Yeah but It'll be interesting to see though if and when Switch starts getting deals, price cuts and revisions, how it will spike sales later in its life. Having them early on is an advantage for 3DS as in this instance here, but Switch not needing them until later can become a bigger advantage to having longer legs than 3DS did. 



Not sure you guy's heard about, but an investor bet 400 million dollars that Nintendo would not best investors expectations

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-30/sac-alum-plotkin-makes-a-massive-short-bet-against-nintendo

 

Nintendo, in fact did beat investors expectations.

 

https://m.nasdaq.com/article/nintendo-profit-beats-expectations-despite-soft-switch-sales-20180731-00148

 

If there is 1 song that goes perfectly with this, it is this. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=idoYCVLh2qI



zorg1000 said:
Barkley said:

It's a bit weird they're sticking to a 20m forecast, if we compare to PlayStation.

PS4 : Q1 - 3.2m. Forecast - 17m
Switch : Q1 - 1.88m Forecast - 20m

The forecast is 3m higher but they're already 1.3m behind, are they really going to outship PS4 by 4.3m over the next 3 quarters?

Sure I think their FY shipments will be more skewed towards the holiday than PlayStation but not by enough to reach 20m.

Ive said in the past I expected them to overshoot but still reach 20m. (18.5m to consumers, 20m shipped for the fiscal year) but I don't think I believe they're going to do that anymore.

I think the holidays could have a 10+ million shipment. I think a good comparison is Wii in FY ending March 2010.

Q1-2.23

Q2-3.52

Q3-11.31

Q4-3.48

Still even that is only 20.4m and we're already behind that by 0.35m, atm I'm thinking my optimistic estimate is this:

Q1- 1.88m

Q2 - 3.2m

Q3 - 10m

Q4 - 3.6m

Full - 18.68m

 

Really I think anywhere from 17.2 - 18.9m is probably about right now.



LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m

Barkley said:
zorg1000 said:

I think the holidays could have a 10+ million shipment. I think a good comparison is Wii in FY ending March 2010.

Q1-2.23

Q2-3.52

Q3-11.31

Q4-3.48

Still even that is only 20.4m and we're already behind that by 0.35m, atm I'm thinking my optimistic estimate is this:

Q1- 1.88m

Q2 - 3.2m

Q3 - 10m

Q4 - 3.6m

Full - 18.68m

 

Really I think anywhere from 17.2 - 18.9m is probably about right now.

Sure, i wouldnt be surprised if they fall short but i also think some people are counting it out too soon.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Good numbers overall, HW numbers are good especially when April and May were slow months in terms of releases, while lineup is quite stronger from June and when Nintendo said sales generally better from around E3.
SW sales are great and profit is great.



animegaming said:

Not sure you guy's heard about, but an investor bet 400 million dollars that Nintendo would not best investors expectations

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-30/sac-alum-plotkin-makes-a-massive-short-bet-against-nintendo

 

Nintendo, in fact did beat investors expectations.

 

https://m.nasdaq.com/article/nintendo-profit-beats-expectations-despite-soft-switch-sales-20180731-00148

 

If there is 1 song that goes perfectly with this, it is this. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=idoYCVLh2qI

The weird thing is that they never explained why they shorted (bet against) Nintendo. They never commented on it. A $400m hedgefund comes out for seemingly whatever reason just days before this report and probably is going to burn that 400m for nothing. Wtf



Liberate Hong Kong, the revolution of our times!

So from a business standpoint it made perfect sense to rerelease DKCTF at full price. Like, we never had any other examples already proving that.



Gameplay > Graphics

Substance > Style

Art Direction > Realism

GoOnKid said:

So from a business standpoint it made perfect sense to rerelease DKCTF at full price. Like, we never had any other examples already proving that.

A probably counter argument will probably be that it could have sold more if it was cheaper, but that is neither here nor there. It sold very well despite detractors claiming it wouldn't because of that price.

Same also goes for Labo. It should have flopped, exactly also because of that "80 dollars for cardboard" rhetoric, yet it still sold well. 

Will this type of argument ever stop? No, but that at least we have examples that prove otherwise.



Liberate Hong Kong, the revolution of our times!

animegaming said:

Not sure you guy's heard about, but an investor bet 400 million dollars that Nintendo would not best investors expectations

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-30/sac-alum-plotkin-makes-a-massive-short-bet-against-nintendo

 

Nintendo, in fact did beat investors expectations.

 

https://m.nasdaq.com/article/nintendo-profit-beats-expectations-despite-soft-switch-sales-20180731-00148

 

If there is 1 song that goes perfectly with this, it is this. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=idoYCVLh2qI

Hahahaha  that's a nice song.