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BOLD PREDICTION: Super Smash Bros Ultimate Will Sell over 25mil WW Lifetime, Book IT

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD PREDICTION: Super Smash Bros Ultimate Will Sell over 25mil WW Lifetime, Book IT

tbone51 said:
Dulfite said:

Mk was a port. A glorious one, but a port. Smash is a brand new game with a ton of new characters, balances, maps, and a campaign mode. It even has "Ultimate" as a subtitle, making it just sounds cool. Also, MK 8 being a port and releasing  so soon, there is a pretty big chance we will see another racer on the switch, like Diddy Kong racing, that cannibalizes sales of MK.

 

I think it will sell more than MK, not sure about 25 mil though.

Just a heads up MK8D is close to 12mil. This Q will probably be its biggest excluding launch since switch will be doong extremly well and mk8 is this years attractive bundle. I can see it getting close to 15mil by years end.

 

If no new mk comes out soon itll do 20mil+ lifetime. Maybe over 25mil

I will agree with you if no new MK comes out PLUS no new other big racer from Nintendo. If DKR comes out or something else, I think we will see a dropoff in MK sales.



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To expand on my comment about Smash not having the legs of Mario Kart, here's comparing the legs for the Wii, 3DS and WiiU entries in these series. Lower First Year % means stronger legs.

Game Sales 52 Weeks from Launch Total Sales First Year (%)
Smash Bros Brawl 8.07m 13.29m 60.72%
Mario Kart Wii 15.08m 37.14m 40.60%




Smash Bros 3DS 6.62m 8.2m 80.73%
Mario Kart 7 6.42m 14.98m 42.86%




Smash Bros WiiU 3.8m 5.07m 74.90%
Mario Kart 8 4.98m 7.69m 64.75%


These are retail only sales, as you can see Mario Kart typically has the majority of it's sales outside it's first year of release, whereas Smash Bros has the majority of sales within it's first 52 weeks on sale. This is because Mario Kart has a much wider appeal towards the more casual gamer, as such it sells to new people picking up the system for a long time. Whereas the majority of people interested in Smash Bros lean more to the hardcore, and are very likely to already own the system, or purchase the system specifically for Smash relatively soon after it's release

The WiiU releases are a lot closer when it comes to legs, though this can be explained by the WiiU being brutally murdered.

Taking an average from these 3 games in each series, Smash Bros has 72.1% of it's lifetime sales in it's first 52 weeks, while Mario Kart has only 49.4%.



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)


Yes let’s completely disregard the growing esport scene surrounding smash since the release of BRAWL.

Mario Kart is a franchise that has already peaked in sales (unless 8 Deluxe prove me wrong)

Smash has yet to peak. We don’t know the limit of that franchise like we know of Pokémon or Mario Kart.



If Nintendo can get Smash big in places like South Korea... I see no reason as too why it won't be able to match MK8D.



Mario Kart 8 D will definitely outsell Smash. However I expect Mario Kart to sell 40m-50m. Therefore it's possible for Smash to still do 25m+



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Mario Kart 8 D will definitely outsell Smash. However I expect Mario Kart to sell 40m-50m. Therefore it's possible for Smash to still do 25m+

Err... Calm down son! Mario Kart isn't getting close to 40m. 25m max.



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)


Barkley said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Mario Kart 8 D will definitely outsell Smash. However I expect Mario Kart to sell 40m-50m. Therefore it's possible for Smash to still do 25m+

Err... Calm down son! Mario Kart isn't getting close to 40m. 25m max.

It already sold 37m on the Wii.  40m is not that far away.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Barkley said:

Err... Calm down son! Mario Kart isn't getting close to 40m. 25m max.

It already sold 37m on the Wii.  40m is not that far away.

MK Wii also sold 15m in it's first 52 weeks, whereas MK8D shipped 10.35m in it's first 60-ish weeks. MK8D is not beating Mario Kart Wii. No game has the legs to quadruple it's launch year sales.



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)


Barkley said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

It already sold 37m on the Wii.  40m is not that far away.

MK Wii also sold 15m in it's first 52 weeks, whereas MK8D shipped 10.35m in it's first 60-ish weeks. MK8D is not beating Mario Kart Wii. No game has the legs to quadruple it's launch year sales.

Itll sell close to 40mil..... (If we include wiiu figure lol)



Barkley said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

It already sold 37m on the Wii.  40m is not that far away.

MK Wii also sold 15m in it's first 52 weeks, whereas MK8D shipped 10.35m in it's first 60-ish weeks. MK8D is not beating Mario Kart Wii. No game has the legs to quadruple it's launch year sales.

Mario Kart 8 D was released only about a month after the Switch was launched.  It could only sell so much the first year, because it had no install base.  This game is basically going to be all legs.