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BOLD PREDICTION: Super Smash Bros Ultimate Will Sell over 25mil WW Lifetime, Book IT

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Jumpin said:
tbone51 said:

 

 

Ok hopefully this thread works...... Update: IT WORKS

 

OK ill start by saying yes im back with another impossible prediction. Having realised that my previous 20mil was pessimistic im uping it up to 25mil ship+digital lifetime

 

Itll be similar to that of MKwii on wiinand will sell a ton lifetime and keep going. With the trend of a couple franchises growing fast on switch i think (as well as many others) this will be no different. Yes i know its almost double the top sellers for SSB but MKwii did the same but tripled best previous MK (if ds isnt included)

 

Anyways thoughts?

 

Btw i think 10mil ship+digital will be announced in under a month of launch (dec 7th) and that will assure a 20mil+ figure lifetime at the very least

I don't see that happening.

1. Despite having a full roster, like SB4, there doesn't appear to be much improvement. With Mario Kart, there was a TON of improvement from N64 to Wii; and while there was decline on the Gamecube, people recognized MK Cubed was a stop gap game with all its BS and sloppy design, and that the next real Mario Kart was the Wii version.

2. I don't think the fanbase expanded from Brawl, it seems to have peaked there. It grew between Melee and Brawl, obviously. With Mario Kart, a LOT of non-N64 owners played the game multiplayer, and those gamers later bought DSs and Wiis, and each of them bought Mario Kart.

3. The Switch demographic hasn't expanded significantly in the local multiplayer fanbase from the Wii, despite its increased capabilities for local multiplayer.

That all said, I would say Smash peaked on Wii, and it won't get above those numbers on Switch. At best it will slightly exceed them - and that's only if there's some kind of unforseen renewed interest in popularity. I don't think it'll be far behind, but 13M is a hard barrier, it'll be closer to 10 or 11M, and probably not for a while either, as many of those buys will be "down the road for my collection because I own a Switch" buys.

What kind of improvements are you looking for? Personally, Mario Kart is still Mario Kart with each installment and I mean that in a good way.

Besides adding a new system into gameplay, most fighting games don’t drastically change from the last installment.

I guess the big factor is that Smash Bros. is a fighting game. As of late, fighting games havent set the world on fire in terms of critical and commercial success, with the exception of MKX and, to some extent in sales, Injustice 2. Factors include companies getting in their own way like SFV launching with little content and bad netcode, issues with graphics and roster like MvC Infinite, or being niche like KoFXIV and ARMS.

Smash doesn’t appear to have any of these issues outside of maybe online (though I haven’t had much issues with Nintendo’s online). Smash has the one of the biggest fighting game rosters and is possibly the “biggest crossover in gaming history” as quoted by Sakurai. Plus, there’s bound to be more to be announced in terms of roster and other content. Graphics have shown improved rendering and most of the characters have been reanimated, even if they look similar from previous games. And it’s certainly not niche. If the Wii U game was able to sell 5-6 million on a 13 million install base, especially when the console had little to no momentum left in 2015, then how Ultimate only do a little better on a rising console that already passed Wii U’s LT sales? Switch has been marketed towards young adults, basically those who are likely to be attracted to such a game compared to the soccer moms and seniors from the Wii install base.

Plus, it’s a headliner for this holiday season along with Pokemon Let’s Go.



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quickrick said:
This will be a good thread to get a few laughs in the future.

 

TheBird said:
An individual title has never sold more than 13 million, this series isn't as popular or as good as you think it is. Now if you said Super Mario Bros and that game actually existed, I'd be like "Fuckin eh he's right".

 

FarleyMcFirefly said:
I'm thinking 15 million tops. Brawl did what, 13 million on a 100 million install base?

 

TranceformerFX said:
25 Million units? Lol... That's ridiculous dude. Call of Duty barely reaches those numbers now, and that's multi-platform.

I don't know of a SINGLE, platform exclusive fighting game that has reached that kind of milestone.

You're grossly exaggerating Super Smash's brand potential. It'll sell (probably) 10 - 12 million units lifetime.

 

quickrick said:
tbone51 said:

Wanna post your low prediction so you don't laugh to hard? 

10-12 million LTD. 

 

bubblegamer said:
I like these kind of threads, very funny later on. See you guys in a couple of years.

 

Podings said:
Smash was never as accessible as Mario Kart.

I have a hard time seeing it break 15 million. But I'd love to be surprised. Digital might catch me off guard.

 

Harkins1721 said:
12 million tops.

 

OTBWY said:

I think it can make the 15 million mark. That's my boldest prediction. 

 

Mr_No said:
It will probably sell around 10 to 12 million units. Probably even slightly less.

 

PwerlvlAmy said:
im gonna say 15m

Damn im gonna have to get a bigger table serving all this crow xD



tbone51 said:
quickrick said:
This will be a good thread to get a few laughs in the future.

 

TheBird said:
An individual title has never sold more than 13 million, this series isn't as popular or as good as you think it is. Now if you said Super Mario Bros and that game actually existed, I'd be like "Fuckin eh he's right".

 

FarleyMcFirefly said:
I'm thinking 15 million tops. Brawl did what, 13 million on a 100 million install base?

 

TranceformerFX said:
25 Million units? Lol... That's ridiculous dude. Call of Duty barely reaches those numbers now, and that's multi-platform.

I don't know of a SINGLE, platform exclusive fighting game that has reached that kind of milestone.

You're grossly exaggerating Super Smash's brand potential. It'll sell (probably) 10 - 12 million units lifetime.

 

quickrick said:

10-12 million LTD. 

 

bubblegamer said:
I like these kind of threads, very funny later on. See you guys in a couple of years.

 

Podings said:
Smash was never as accessible as Mario Kart.

I have a hard time seeing it break 15 million. But I'd love to be surprised. Digital might catch me off guard.

 

Harkins1721 said:
12 million tops.

 

OTBWY said:

I think it can make the 15 million mark. That's my boldest prediction. 

 

Mr_No said:
It will probably sell around 10 to 12 million units. Probably even slightly less.

 

PwerlvlAmy said:
im gonna say 15m

Damn im gonna have to get a bigger table serving all this crow xD

Hey man, my prediction is realistic and grounded. It's not a "fall of a cliff" type prediction.



OTBWY said:
tbone51 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Damn im gonna have to get a bigger table serving all this crow xD

Hey man, my prediction is realistic and grounded. It's not a "fall of a cliff" type prediction.

Yours isnt bad lol. But its still 10mil off if im right :p



Kai_Mao said:
RaptorChrist said:

If that's true, then great, but if I find out that they copy pasted a bunch of stages, characters, items, Pokemon, assist trophies, etcetera, then I'm going to be pretty pissed at you for calling me out for something that I was right about.

A lot of the characters look similar from Wii U, but they’ve been reanimated and upgraded from Wii U so copying and pasting is pushing it. You can utilize a previous game as a basis while still provide a new rendering engine and reanimate characters and adjust the properties of their move sets.

Unless you want to tell us how copy/pasted Link, DK, Zelda, Ganondorf, Mario, Pikachu, etc. are.

Im also sure you can compare Kongo Falls, Magicant, Bridge of Elden, Green Greens, Prism Tower, Great Bay, and Saffron City as well ;)

This is really the first iteration of the Smash series where the previous entry in the series was on comparable hardware. When jumping from N64 to GCN, using the N64 meshes would be inexcusable. With each entry in the series, the characters have needed to be completely re-worked.

The Switch is more powerful than the Wii U, but using Wii U models are "pass"-able, and from Nintendo's perspective, it would be to their benefit to utilize assets from the Wii U version so they can get the game out sooner.

In fact, Sakurai practically said it himself: "Changes could number in the tens of thousands". There is no way they could have re-built an entire Smash game with the full roster from every previous installment in such a short time without heavily relying on Smash 4.

But here's the thing: the idea of re-using assets from Smash 4 causes controversy, and makes haters state things like "Smash Ultimate is just a Wii U port of Smash 4", so it needs to be sugar-coated and described in ways that may not be entirely accurate, but they please the majority of non-tech-savvy individuals.

My take: I admit I haven't done much research on this topic, and am simply using my knowledge to draw a hypothesis which I am fully aware could be entirely false. However, using the skills I've obtained over the many years of being an app developer by trade, I can say with fair confidence that Smash Ultimate will re-use a very large number of assets from Smash 4. And if it were me in Sakurai's shoes, it's the same approach I would take as well, given the task and the timeline. It's not something that even needs to be refuted, but people are quick to take it as an insult and become defensive.



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RaptorChrist said:
Kai_Mao said:

A lot of the characters look similar from Wii U, but they’ve been reanimated and upgraded from Wii U so copying and pasting is pushing it. You can utilize a previous game as a basis while still provide a new rendering engine and reanimate characters and adjust the properties of their move sets.

Unless you want to tell us how copy/pasted Link, DK, Zelda, Ganondorf, Mario, Pikachu, etc. are.

Im also sure you can compare Kongo Falls, Magicant, Bridge of Elden, Green Greens, Prism Tower, Great Bay, and Saffron City as well ;)

This is really the first iteration of the Smash series where the previous entry in the series was on comparable hardware. When jumping from N64 to GCN, using the N64 meshes would be inexcusable. With each entry in the series, the characters have needed to be completely re-worked.

The Switch is more powerful than the Wii U, but using Wii U models are "pass"-able, and from Nintendo's perspective, it would be to their benefit to utilize assets from the Wii U version so they can get the game out sooner.

In fact, Sakurai practically said it himself: "Changes could number in the tens of thousands". There is no way they could have re-built an entire Smash game with the full roster from every previous installment in such a short time without heavily relying on Smash 4.

But here's the thing: the idea of re-using assets from Smash 4 causes controversy, and makes haters state things like "Smash Ultimate is just a Wii U port of Smash 4", so it needs to be sugar-coated and described in ways that may not be entirely accurate, but they please the majority of non-tech-savvy individuals.

My take: I admit I haven't done much research on this topic, and am simply using my knowledge to draw a hypothesis which I am fully aware could be entirely false. However, using the skills I've obtained over the many years of being an app developer by trade, I can say with fair confidence that Smash Ultimate will re-use a very large number of assets from Smash 4. And if it were me in Sakurai's shoes, it's the same approach I would take as well, given the task and the timeline. It's not something that even needs to be refuted, but people are quick to take it as an insult and become defensive.

I don't mean to sound defensive. Sakurai even said he used Smash 4 as a basis so there's influence there. I'm just saying they still had to re-render and re-animate characters while balancing them under the new mechanics and pace of the game. Hitstun and knockback are notably different from Smash 4 so moves have to be nerfed and buffed accordingly. Plus, they needed to balance some of the more top-tier characters. Bayonetta and Clound, two characters that have gone under great scrutiny in the last couple of years in the Smash 4 competitive scene, have been noted to have major nerfs according to those who have played them in the demo.

So, ultimately, no pun intended, Sakurai and his team still put in a lot of work to no only balance those that have been established from Smash 4, but re-animate and re-balance those who have been cut such as the Ice Climbers, Wolf, Young Link, Snake, Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Pichu. Plus, the information regarding Ultimate is not over. We will see what more is out there for this game.



tbone51 said:
quickrick said:
This will be a good thread to get a few laughs in the future.

 

TheBird said:
An individual title has never sold more than 13 million, this series isn't as popular or as good as you think it is. Now if you said Super Mario Bros and that game actually existed, I'd be like "Fuckin eh he's right".

 

FarleyMcFirefly said:
I'm thinking 15 million tops. Brawl did what, 13 million on a 100 million install base?

 

TranceformerFX said:
25 Million units? Lol... That's ridiculous dude. Call of Duty barely reaches those numbers now, and that's multi-platform.

I don't know of a SINGLE, platform exclusive fighting game that has reached that kind of milestone.

You're grossly exaggerating Super Smash's brand potential. It'll sell (probably) 10 - 12 million units lifetime.

 

quickrick said:

10-12 million LTD. 

 

bubblegamer said:
I like these kind of threads, very funny later on. See you guys in a couple of years.

 

Podings said:
Smash was never as accessible as Mario Kart.

I have a hard time seeing it break 15 million. But I'd love to be surprised. Digital might catch me off guard.

 

Harkins1721 said:
12 million tops.

 

OTBWY said:

I think it can make the 15 million mark. That's my boldest prediction. 

 

Mr_No said:
It will probably sell around 10 to 12 million units. Probably even slightly less.

 

PwerlvlAmy said:
im gonna say 15m

Damn im gonna have to get a bigger table serving all this crow xD

Yeah I just don't see this Smash as the ''next big entry'' seems like a stop gap to me. I'm just not feeling the hype overall for it like I've seen and felt with past entries. We shall see though



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I cant understand the people thinking it will top off at 12 million. IMO 25 million ceiling is FAR more likely then 12 million ceiling. Hell, Smash 4 sold enough copies to have a near 1:2 ratio, which while the Wii U only sold 13 million units, is still pretty impressive.

I remember there was a thread on here talking about the possibility of Zelda, Mario, and Splatoon all selling 10 million copies each on Switch, and there were a few haters that cried BS and stated it was impossible. Not only is it likely to happen now, but it's likely to happen even before the Switch turns 2 years old. I personally think Smash will sell 20-23 million units, but never say never.

Very bold, and very not happening. I bet VGC support status for a month to you if I am wrong. But I wont be.

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