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BOLD PREDICTION: Super Smash Bros Ultimate Will Sell over 25mil WW Lifetime, Book IT

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Wyrdness said:
Wright said:
...

Again it backs what I've said about his flip floppinh this is highlighted in the part you couldn't argue where you simply side stepped it by saying Sakurai pondered it unless you believe DLC pops up over night the DLC that Destructoid refer to came out after a few months so his comment that nothing is in the works is contradicted given how development goes so yes it backs my point no two ways about it.

I think thats enough of this topic yeah?Especially since it has nothing to do with the discussion.

 

Lets just agree that we are all excited for Smash 5.



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Nautilus said:

I think thats enough of this topic yeah?Especially since it has nothing to do with the discussion.

 

Lets just agree that we are all excited for Smash 5.

I agree I'm excited about taking your avatar and signature, yeah.



It's been too long since I read a good Tbone prediction.

Given that Smash 4 sold 13 million, 15 million seems easy for Ultimate. 20 million seems really optimistic though, and 25 million, well, I'd have to see where the Switch is at in total hardware sales at the end of this fiscal year before I'd count it out, but I'm not sure it has the momentum. In theory, if Mario Kart can sell those numbers, Smash should be able to, but that's if the Switch sells like the Wii while maintaining the really good attach rates it has now for its major titles. It's just really hard for a single platform to pull those numbers, but if the Switch sells like the Wii it's not out of the question.

Comon John Lucas would have put it in the 35 million range

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I'm not really understanding why some people are low balling the game. Almost every nintendo franchise has seen growth on the switch, why is smash of all games going to be the exception? 25 million is probably excessive but I don't see why the audience would shrink compared to brawl.

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Wright said:
Nautilus said:

I think thats enough of this topic yeah?Especially since it has nothing to do with the discussion.

 

Lets just agree that we are all excited for Smash 5.

I agree I'm excited about taking your avatar and signature, yeah.

Oh, such sweet innocence!

You will feast upon the delicacies of a crow, that i guarantee you!



tbone51 said:

 

 

Ok hopefully this thread works...... Update: IT WORKS

 

OK ill start by saying yes im back with another impossible prediction. Having realised that my previous 20mil was pessimistic im uping it up to 25mil ship+digital lifetime

 

Itll be similar to that of MKwii on wiinand will sell a ton lifetime and keep going. With the trend of a couple franchises growing fast on switch i think (as well as many others) this will be no different. Yes i know its almost double the top sellers for SSB but MKwii did the same but tripled best previous MK (if ds isnt included)

 

Anyways thoughts?

 

Btw i think 10mil ship+digital will be announced in under a month of launch (dec 7th) and that will assure a 20mil+ figure lifetime at the very least

I don't see that happening.

1. Despite having a full roster, like SB4, there doesn't appear to be much improvement. With Mario Kart, there was a TON of improvement from N64 to Wii; and while there was decline on the Gamecube, people recognized MK Cubed was a stop gap game with all its BS and sloppy design, and that the next real Mario Kart was the Wii version.

2. I don't think the fanbase expanded from Brawl, it seems to have peaked there. It grew between Melee and Brawl, obviously. With Mario Kart, a LOT of non-N64 owners played the game multiplayer, and those gamers later bought DSs and Wiis, and each of them bought Mario Kart.

3. The Switch demographic hasn't expanded significantly in the local multiplayer fanbase from the Wii, despite its increased capabilities for local multiplayer.

That all said, I would say Smash peaked on Wii, and it won't get above those numbers on Switch. At best it will slightly exceed them - and that's only if there's some kind of unforseen renewed interest in popularity. I don't think it'll be far behind, but 13M is a hard barrier, it'll be closer to 10 or 11M, and probably not for a while either, as many of those buys will be "down the road for my collection because I own a Switch" buys.



No way it clears 20+ Million.

Jumpin said:
tbone51 said:

 

 

Ok hopefully this thread works...... Update: IT WORKS

 

OK ill start by saying yes im back with another impossible prediction. Having realised that my previous 20mil was pessimistic im uping it up to 25mil ship+digital lifetime

 

Itll be similar to that of MKwii on wiinand will sell a ton lifetime and keep going. With the trend of a couple franchises growing fast on switch i think (as well as many others) this will be no different. Yes i know its almost double the top sellers for SSB but MKwii did the same but tripled best previous MK (if ds isnt included)

 

Anyways thoughts?

 

Btw i think 10mil ship+digital will be announced in under a month of launch (dec 7th) and that will assure a 20mil+ figure lifetime at the very least

I don't see that happening.

1. Despite having a full roster, like SB4, there doesn't appear to be much improvement. With Mario Kart, there was a TON of improvement from N64 to Wii; and while there was decline on the Gamecube, people recognized MK Cubed was a stop gap game with all its BS and sloppy design, and that the next real Mario Kart was the Wii version.

2. I don't think the fanbase expanded from Brawl, it seems to have peaked there. It grew between Melee and Brawl, obviously. With Mario Kart, a LOT of non-N64 owners played the game multiplayer, and those gamers later bought DSs and Wiis, and each of them bought Mario Kart.

3. The Switch demographic hasn't expanded significantly in the local multiplayer fanbase from the Wii, despite its increased capabilities for local multiplayer.

That all said, I would say Smash peaked on Wii, and it won't get above those numbers on Switch. At best it will slightly exceed them - and that's only if there's some kind of unforseen renewed interest in popularity. I don't think it'll be far behind, but 13M is a hard barrier, it'll be closer to 10 or 11M, and probably not for a while either, as many of those buys will be "down the road for my collection because I own a Switch" buys.

1. I still hold that Mario Kart: Double Dash is the best one in the series, though MK8DX is coming very close. MK Wii was a deception for me, with the only somewhat good new thing being bikes (somewhat because they are gamebreakers)

2. Smash managed to get over 5M on Wii U. Believe me when I say that it would have outsold Brawl given enough install base (even just GC hardware numbers would have sufficed imo)

3. Possibly, but it gained a substantial amount of online multiplayer fanbase since then

Going by the preorders on both Amazon (worldwide) and Gamestop (US only), which are still going very strong one month after the E3 presentation, I don't think many will opt for a "buy later" for this game. In fact, I think it could be comparatively frontloaded for a Nintendo game,as many seem to have been waiting for this game.



quickrick said: 

ps4 will beat switch by around 100k March npd or slightly less.

im gonna say 15m

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