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When, If At All, Do You Think the Switch Will Overtake the Xbox One in Console Sales?

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When, If At All, Do You Think the Switch Will Overtake the Xbox One in Console Sales?

Before the end of 2018 57 4.87%
 
Q1 or Q2 of 2019 126 10.77%
 
Q3 or Q4 of 2019 379 32.39%
 
Q1 or Q2 of 2020 209 17.86%
 
Q3 or Q4 of 2020 169 14.44%
 
Q1 or Q2 of 2021 42 3.59%
 
Q3 or Q4 of 2021 28 2.39%
 
2022 31 2.65%
 
2023 or Later 22 1.88%
 
Never 107 9.15%
 
Total:1,170

FY16 - 2.74 million
FY17 - 17.79 million
FY18 - 35-38 million*
FY19 - 55-60 million*

*Predications

So since I don't expect Xbox One numbers to exceed more than 55 million lifetime, sometime before March 31st 2020, likely by December 31st 2019 since sales will likely be more than 50 million then since January, February and March 2020 won't do as significant numbers as the holiday months unless a major game drops like Animal Crossing.

Last edited by Green098 - on 11 July 2018

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Barkley said:
SKMBlake said:
I think Xbox One sales will reach 45 millions by the end of 2019 (40 millions by the end of the year, and 5 more millions next year) and I think Switch will be close to 30 millions by the end of the year, so I see it close to 47 millions by the end of 2019.

40m by the end of 2018 is much too low for XBO. They would need to sell just 2.1m from June 23rd to December 31st... that same period last year they sold 5.42m.

Do you really expect them to sell as many as last year ? I don't see them selling more than 3 millions by the end of the year



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Early next year is my guess.Something between march-may.

SKMBlake said:
Barkley said:

40m by the end of 2018 is much too low for XBO. They would need to sell just 2.1m from June 23rd to December 31st... that same period last year they sold 5.42m.

Do you really expect them to sell as many as last year ? I don't see them selling more than 3 millions by the end of the year

They're selling more than last year so far. If they can sell 2.2m in the first 6 months they can definitely sell more than 3m in the next 6 months which include the holiday season.



Proud owner of a PS4 Pro, Nintendo Switch, Xbo S and a dated gaming pc.

Didn't we have such a thread before already?

Anyway, I'd say late next year, XBO is doing too well to beat it earlier. There's a chance it would slip into 2020, but the games we already know for next year (mainline Pokémon, mainline Fire Emblem and Yoshi already confirmed) are promising enough for me to think Switch can do 20M in 2019, too

quickrick said: 

ps4 will beat switch by around 100k March npd or slightly less.

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454

List as Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

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Q4 2019, for those saying never...how well done do you like your crow?

I very much doubt it will anytime before the Next box. Maybe 2021 there abouts. I'd reckon Switch sales are going to nose dive as they oversaturate the market and head in the mobile direction among all the other mistakes they are making. Just like with Xbox they have repeatedly made me put my money back in my wallet so to speak everytime I would get close to buying one and I don't see a bright future for this system.
Of course, this only stands if we are talking the same SKU and no mid generation models are released. I think if they releas to seperate models, one focused on power and the core fan base and one focused on the mobile gaming path they want to walk and just outright make ot a handheld centeic device, they could well pass Xbox sales. But in that case one would be a handheld and the other a Hybrid so the numbers wouldn't count. Anyway, as things stand now, it lools doubtful.

Sometime between Q3-Q4 2019.

Pancho A. Ovies

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2017 vs. 2018
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=234574

Probably late 2019

I would say early next year. I actually belive when they said they havent anounced everything coming this year for the switch. While for MS they basicly said nothing is coming for a while and will be as barren as the last 2 years have been until the next box comes out in 2020. So i expect NS to rise after the anouncements while the xbox will drop soon.

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