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When, If At All, Do You Think the Switch Will Overtake the Xbox One in Console Sales?

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When, If At All, Do You Think the Switch Will Overtake the Xbox One in Console Sales?

Before the end of 2018 57 4.87%
 
Q1 or Q2 of 2019 126 10.77%
 
Q3 or Q4 of 2019 379 32.39%
 
Q1 or Q2 of 2020 209 17.86%
 
Q3 or Q4 of 2020 169 14.44%
 
Q1 or Q2 of 2021 42 3.59%
 
Q3 or Q4 of 2021 28 2.39%
 
2022 31 2.65%
 
2023 or Later 22 1.88%
 
Never 107 9.15%
 
Total:1,170
zorg1000 said:
End of 2017
NSW-~13m
XBO-~35m

End of 2018
NSW-~30m
XBO-~43m

End of 2019
NSW-~50m
XBO-~49m

My prediction would be something like this:


End of 2017
NSW-~13.1m
XBO-~35.5m

End of 2018
NSW-~29.5m
XBO-~43.8m

End of 2019
NSW-~48m
XBO-~51.4m

Sooo...  I would say 2nd quarter of 2020



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VAMatt said:
zorg1000 said:
End of 2017
NSW-~13m
XBO-~35m

End of 2018
NSW-~30m
XBO-~43m

End of 2019
NSW-~50m
XBO-~49m

I don't think Switch will do 20mm in 2019.  Though many systems peak in year 3 or 4, I think the poor performance of the Wii U actually pulled Switch sales earlier into the generation.  People were hungry for new Nintendo hardware.  Also, they used two of their big guns early - Zelda and 3D Mario (I know Zelda isn't generally a huge system seller, but the incredible reviews of BotW likely helped it move more units).   One of the other big guns is being used this year - Smash.  There's also that Let's Go Pokemon thing that will bring many of the core Pokemon players into Switch this year, if they're not already owners.  That means next year's traditional Pokemon won't have the same system selling power that it otherwise would have.  After that, we have Kart 9 and the next 2D Mario.   But, fans of those games are probably already owners.  With all of this said, I'm thinking 2018 may be the peak sales year.  

I should point out that I'm not predicting a massive decline in sales after 2018.  But, it may be in the 15-18 million range next year.  If so, it won't catch XBone until 2020, possibly late in the year.  

Price cut, revisions & big hitters like 2D Mario, Pokemon Gen 8 & Animal Crossing are things that i could see causing Switch to have a stronger 2019.

But ya its possible 2019 sees a decline causing Switch to not pass XBO until 2020, i could see that happening as well.



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Shortly after Microsoft announces its successor.

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Mmmm... rough guess:

End of 2018: Switch - 30.5m, XBO - 43.4m
End of 2019: Switch - 49.5m, XBO - 50.2m

December 2019 - February 2020 is my guess.

Proud owner of a PS4 Pro, Nintendo Switch, Xbo S and a dated gaming pc.

I think Xbox One sales will reach 45 millions by the end of 2019 (40 millions by the end of the year, and 5 more millions next year) and I think Switch will be close to 30 millions by the end of the year, so I see it close to 47 millions by the end of 2019.

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SKMBlake said:
I think Xbox One sales will reach 45 millions by the end of 2019 (40 millions by the end of the year, and 5 more millions next year) and I think Switch will be close to 30 millions by the end of the year, so I see it close to 47 millions by the end of 2019.

40m by the end of 2018 is much too low for XBO. They would need to sell just 2.1m from June 23rd to December 31st... that same period last year they sold 5.42m.



Proud owner of a PS4 Pro, Nintendo Switch, Xbo S and a dated gaming pc.

Before the next Xbox gets released

Pocky Lover Boy! 

My guess would be after Q4 2019. sales.

By Early-Mid 2020 it should have happend right?



Number of days to reach 50M from 40M : 198 days
Number of days to reach 60M from 50M : 187 days
Number of days to reach 70M from 60M : 175 days
Number of days to reach 80M from 70M : 227 days

Necro-bump this 2020: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=229249

Mathematically speaking, were the current trends to continue, it looks like the Switch would formally outsell the Xbox One in total system sales sometime in the second half of 2020. Being that I'm no good at predicting how the market trends may change between now and then, that's my best guess!