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NINTENDO stock -34% since March 2018

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no surprise after E3, but i think it could change with next game announcements, nothing special



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It's fine! That's less than 1% per Smash fighter announced



“It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grams a week. And only yesterday, he reflected, it had been announced that the ration was to be reduced to twenty grams a week. Was it possible that they could swallow that, after only twenty-four hours? Yes, they swallowed it.”

- George Orwell, ‘1984’

quickrick said:
Amnesia said:
Yoy have probably understood it wrong then. I have shown by graph Q1 2017 vs Q2 2018, for fiscal dates.
It depends which Q1 you are talking about, from Januar 1st or April 1st ?

From april to jun which is what the Q1 period is. I didn't understand it wrong, that's what nintendo said.

Can you show me please because I am quite often around here, to not sat evertdays, I follow topic closely and I have not seen this.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

Amnesia said:
quickrick said:

From april to jun which is what the Q1 period is. I didn't understand it wrong, that's what nintendo said.

Can you show me please because I am quite often around here, to not sat evertdays, I follow topic closely and I have not seen this.

The translation is actually somewhat weaker quarter. 



Then numbers of vgchartz are not only overtracked, they are completly wrong.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

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quickrick said:
Amnesia said:

Can you show me please because I am quite often around here, to not sat evertdays, I follow topic closely and I have not seen this.

The translation is actually somewhat weaker quarter. 

You're aware they give outthose Q&A reports in english, too? Because here you can read it all in english: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/qa1806e.pdf

ftware during this fiscal year will not be an
easy challenge to meet, but we are putting all of ou
r efforts into doing just that. If you look at our
software lineup for the fiscal year that we showed at
E3, you can see a relative
trend that the titles
that resonate mosh hardwithin expectations
when looking at our soft
ware lineup for the entire
fiscal year.

In other words, yes, sales slowed down a bit compared to the previous quarter and possibly to the same quarter last year (the phrasing is a bit ambiguous, it can also mean that it's just not impressively more than compared to last year's Q1 numbers. However, it's probable to be slightly down). On the other hand Nintendo was fully expecting it because their main game lineup was all in the second half of the year. He's saying that sales are going up since E3, so it can't have been that badly received.(end Q2 and Q3) Kimishima also mentions later down the line that not all the games for the FY and holiday season have been disclosed (Q12)

While we're at it, the question was if Nintendo still aims to ship 20 millions, and he's basically saying that the quarter may look weak, but it's expected and on track to sell 20M. It was not one of the questions about the stock prices, which this discussion is about. For that, some other questions had been asked:

(Q3)First, if Labo did fail, and Nintendo said while it didn't spike nearly as high as games usually do, it's still selling and Nintendo is hoping to continue to sell them over time

(Q2)Another question is to what Nintendo wants do do to correct the share price, and there Nintendo mostly pointed at the games releasing in the second half of the year and that they had huge audiences at their E3 booth and invitationals.

While not directly part of the topic anymore, I just want to point out some other parts of the shareholder's meeting. There are:

(Q7)A comment from Tanaka were he says that several Indies on the Switch have sold over 1 Million copies and that Nintendo plans to release some 20-30 games per week.

(Q10)The reason why Nintendo didn't enter the Chinese market yet. Basically, while the consoles themselves can now be sold in China, software, games, and networking are still heavily regulated. In other words they could sell their consoles there, but not the games yet and can't offer an eShop either to compensate for it.

Edit: sorry for the formatting, tried to copy/paste out of the pdf and it messed up something. Also, wished to have seen what led to Q13 in action.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 09 July 2018

Understandable when their 2018 switch line up can be summarised as: Smash



Bofferbrauer2 said:
quickrick said:

The translation is actually somewhat weaker quarter. 

You're aware they give outthose Q&A reports in english, too? Because here you can read it all in english: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/qa1806e.pdf

ftware during this fiscal year will not be an
easy challenge to meet, but we are putting all of ou
r efforts into doing just that. If you look at our
software lineup for the fiscal year that we showed at
E3, you can see a relative
trend that the titles
that resonate mosh hardwithin expectations
when looking at our soft
ware lineup for the entire
fiscal year.

In other words, yes, sales slowed down a bit compared to the previous quarter and possibly to the same quarter last year (the phrasing is a bit ambiguous, it can also mean that it's just not impressively more than compared to last year's Q1 numbers. However, it's probable to be slightly down). On the other hand Nintendo was fully expecting it because their main game lineup was all in the second half of the year. He's saying that sales are going up since E3, so it can't have been that badly received.

Edit: sorry for the formatting, tried to copy/paste out of the pdf and it messed up something.

Obviously nintendo are gonna say they are fully expecting it to play it cool, don't really care what nintedo said really, they have been off with there 3ds and wiiu forcast every year they won't change it till they know 100% they can't make that number. BTW the official  translation just came out. For nintedo to mention this early means, its not gonna be pretty 1.5-1.7 million is what i expect for shipments.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
quickrick said:

The translation is actually somewhat weaker quarter. 

You're aware they give outthose Q&A reports in english, too? Because here you can read it all in english: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/qa1806e.pdf

ftware during this fiscal year will not be an
easy challenge to meet, but we are putting all of ou
r efforts into doing just that. If you look at our
software lineup for the fiscal year that we showed at
E3, you can see a relative
trend that the titles
that resonate mosh hardwithin expectations
when looking at our soft
ware lineup for the entire
fiscal year.

In other words, yes, sales slowed down a bit compared to the previous quarter and possibly to the same quarter last year (the phrasing is a bit ambiguous, it can also mean that it's just not impressively more than compared to last year's Q1 numbers. However, it's probable to be slightly down). On the other hand Nintendo was fully expecting it because their main game lineup was all in the second half of the year. He's saying that sales are going up since E3, so it can't have been that badly received.

Edit: sorry for the formatting, tried to copy/paste out of the pdf and it messed up something.

" A simple comparison of hardware units sold during the first quarter of this fiscal year might not look as good as the units sold during this period in the prior fiscal year."

Sounds pretty straight forward to me, less hardware units sold than the same period last year. Which means total Switch shipments are less than 19.76m units as of June 30th.

Thanks for posting the link to it in english.



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)

quickrick 2 hours ago:

quickrick said:
Amnesia said:

This is a complete mistake. Even if they would keep 190-200k until the end of July they will destroy fiscal Q1 

Did you miss the part where nintendo said it has weaker shipments for Q1 2018 compared to Q1 2017?

quickrick now:

quickrick said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

You're aware they give outthose Q&A reports in english, too? Because here you can read it all in english: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/qa1806e.pdf

ftware during this fiscal year will not be an
easy challenge to meet, but we are putting all of ou
r efforts into doing just that. If you look at our
software lineup for the fiscal year that we showed at
E3, you can see a relative
trend that the titles
that resonate mosh hardwithin expectations
when looking at our soft
ware lineup for the entire
fiscal year.

In other words, yes, sales slowed down a bit compared to the previous quarter and possibly to the same quarter last year (the phrasing is a bit ambiguous, it can also mean that it's just not impressively more than compared to last year's Q1 numbers. However, it's probable to be slightly down). On the other hand Nintendo was fully expecting it because their main game lineup was all in the second half of the year. He's saying that sales are going up since E3, so it can't have been that badly received.

Edit: sorry for the formatting, tried to copy/paste out of the pdf and it messed up something.

Obviously nintendo are gonna say they are fully expecting it to play it cool, don't really care what nintedo said really, they have been off with there 3ds and wiiu forcast every year they won't change it till they know 100% they can't make that number. BTW the official  translation just came out.

There you have it folks.