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Should Nextbox go for the headstart, or wait for PS5 to make the first move?

Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Should Nextbox go for the headstart, or wait for PS5 to make the first move?

I think MS should...

Get a headstart and relea... 21 38.18%
 
Release alongside PS5 17 30.91%
 
Let PS5 go first 17 30.91%
 
Total:55
SvennoJ said:
EricHiggin said:

If MS were to build a next gen 60fps console, and launch at the same time as PS5, but make sure the price was the same if not less, they should do alright. Casuals should have no problem buying a console like that. As for the XB1X, they could very well just scrap it altogether once the new model arrives late 2019 or 2020 and drop the "One" branding. This would justify the new console if it wasn't leaps and bounds better than the XB1X, to cater to XB1(S) owners. Having another XB ready for holiday 2021, could be the beast needed to get all of the XB1X owners to upgrade if the initial console wasn't strong enough for them to see the need. The casuals will buy for a cheaper price and the ability to play the newest third party games at their best. XB1X owners will demand strong first party, which should be in full swing by 2021.

The casuals don't buy at launch though or the first year, nor do they care about a 60 fps console. Launch year is to draw the hardcore in, and perhaps the promise of 60fps is enough to get them to upgrade again. The danger is that the hardcore might give the ps5 a try first and wait for the beast model of the new xbox, then get drawn into the ps eco system instead. That's basically giving Sony a year head start. MS needs something to show a generational leap and a 60fps more 4K version of the X1X won't do that.

The mid gen refreshes plus diminishing returns are undermining the justification for a new gen. 2020 might simply be too soon.

This would be the point though. The casuals would be gravy early on but offering a solid 60FPS with say a 10TF GPU at $299-$399 should be enough to get the hardcore to jump on it. This is also assuming the PS5 launches at a similar time frame if not shortly later, at say 14TF for $399. The type of people who buy an XB1X are mostly the ones who want the newest best thing as long as they can afford it. Offering them an upgrade for a much cheaper price than the XB1X was, with the promise of solid 60FPS should do it. Telling those same XB owners or fans that a 20TF version was coming for late 2021, at the same time they announce the shortly available 60FPS/10TF model, would give them the choice to stick with their XB1X for now, but at 30FPS/6TF, or upgrade for cheap and then have the option to pay $499 again late 2021 for an upgrade.

I couldn't imagine many hardcore XB gamers holding off, especially when they see the newest XB being $299-$399 and the 2021 model being $499. Many will want to jump in right away, and the more that console sells early on, the more word spreads, and the more casuals buy a new XB. This is also assuming that XB1(S) becomes obsolete and the weakest XB that can play future games that is available for sale, is the new 60FPS/10TF model. You drop the XB One brand and hardware entirely, but allow FC with the XB1X so you don't piss off any of those owners who aren't quite ready to upgrade. It also allows those owners to sell their XB1X to a casual, mind you for less than $299-$399 even though they paid $499 not all that long ago, so they can upgrade immediately.

This plan would allow XB to be first on the market, with the cheaper model that plays the newest games the best they can be played on an XB console, with the knowledge that a year or so after the stronger PS5 launches, an even stronger XB will be on the market to claim the strongest hardware. XB will be implying they have the most powerful hardware available, even though it won't be true until a year after the PS5 hits. Yet that image will be left on everyone's mind that if you buy a PS5, you won't be getting the cheapest model and you won't be getting the best performing model. It's like a mental hardware marketing trap.

XB 60FPS/10TF launch late 2019 for $299-$399 but stays $50 to $100 below PS5 at all times. PS5 60FPS/14TF launch sometime in 2020 for $399. XB 60FPS/20TF launch late 2021 for $499. Which are you going to buy after being told by mid 2019 that all 3 of these consoles will be available in the coming years? Would PS really bother to try and put out a PS5 upgrade by 2022 that vastly outperforms the 2021 XB? I really doubt it. A 2020 PS5 launch probably means 2023 at the earliest for another PS5 upgrade.



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I hope they release after the PS5, as it allows for a larger gap between the XONE X and the next console. Sony is gonna do their thing anyway.



A consolemaker only screws up every three generations, so Microsoft is doomed no matter what they do; Sony isn’t going to make any mistakes.

On the plus-side that means Microsoft themselves isn’t going to make mistakes either. It’ll be smooth sailing with both having decent sales and boring all-around next gen.

Last edited by S.Peelman - on 06 July 2018

Errorist76 said:
LiquorandGunFun said:

the ps3 was trash at launch. the games looked like trash and that can be thanked by the cell processor. yeah it got its shit together by the end of the generation with some great games and much better polish.

 

also where are your numbers to support your "fact"?

You’re on VGChartz, right?

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/272488/xbox-one-vs-xbox-360vgchartz-gap-chartsdecember-2017-update/

 

PS3 outsold 360 from the first year on btw an even outsold it with one year less in the end.

ok that works, yeah i am on vgchartz, but that wasnt my claim. i dont care enough to research something like that. but thanks for getting to it anyways.



 

S.Peelman said:

A consolemaker only screws up every three generations, so Microsoft is doomed no matter what they do; Sony isn’t going to make any mistakes.

On the plus-side that means Microsoft themselves isn’t going to make mistakes either. It’ll be smooth sailing with both having decent sales and boring all-around next gen.

Sony doesn't need to make a mistake per-say to end up derided by the public, they just need to offer a console that isn't as "good" as the competition.



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The smartest move would be to release alongside, but I don’t think it really matters. Sony’s gotten good at the advantages MS used during the 360 era, and it’s extremely unlikely theyre gonna make any of the mistakes they made during the PS3 launch. Even if Xbox launches first, PS5 would still win.



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IMO realising after PS5 would be huge mistake for next Xbox, so they need to go before or alongside PS5.



Ideally, MS would launch Project Scarlet before Sony launches PS5. I don't think it matters when they launch though (unless its a year apart) since I can't see MS winning any countries outside US/ UK.



Assuming that they launch with a single new device, I expect that the next Xbox will either:

1) Launch a year ahead of PS5, with about the expected stats of that PS.

or

2) Launch at roughly the same time as PS5, at the same price, with noticeably better stats.

In each case, of course, MS cannot control how Sony will respond. If they launch a year before PS, it is very likely that Sony will bump the stats of PS5 up a bit, so as to have the more powerful machine again. If they launch at the same time, Sony could of course race them to the top in terms of stats. But, to the extent that MS can control the situation, I think it will go one of those two ways.

The reality is that MS must regain market share. If they cannot do so in the next several years, I expect that they will get out of the console business. To do so, they'll need to have something that Sony does not. Of course, they could do it by under-pricing Sony. This is actually one way where MS can pretty easily win. If they really want to, they can certainly afford to take more of a loss on console sales. But, it doesn't look to me like that's the route they want to take, as they're currently pushing max power. So, I figure they will either try to get time or power on their side.

With all of that said, and considering that they have alluded to having multiple devices in the family, they very well could launch at both the high and low end at the same time. That would be interesting, and I have no way to even guess as to how that will work out for them.



Won't make any difference for MS until they improve first party support. Even if they don't repeat the XB1 launch disaster. Also the next consoles won't be much more powerful than the PRO or the X, if at all since 1080p will still be the standard, not 4k.