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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 16 June 2018

Ljink96 on 02 July 2018
JRPGfan said:
Mar1217 said:

And we'll talk about this  when we'll have a more clear image after this holiday.

Yeah its too early to tell yet... either of you could be right.

I can understand Intrinsics logic though.
Going by this thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=234574

2018 sales so far:
PS4 : 6,516,224 units
XB1 : 2,190,595 units
NSW : 4,804,066 units

The Switch is 1,71m+ down compaired to the PS4 so far, and its going to keep growing most likely up towards the holidays.
The Switch will have to have a monsterous holiday sales, to beat the PS4 in 2018.

I guess it comes down to

PS4 : Spiderman + Red Dead Redemption + Call of Duty/Battlefield + Shadow of the tombraider + Fallout 76 + more.
vs
Switch:  Octopath Traveler + Super Mario Party + Pokemon lets go + Super Smash Bro's + more.


I think the PS4 lineup is stronger towards the holidays, yes thats because of the 3rd party support, but you cant just ignore 3rd party.
They do have a impact.

True, the PS4 lineup is strong but Nintendo Switch, Naturally, has more selling potential than the PS4 this holiday. It's the newer device and PS4 already has a COD, Battlefield, Tombraider, and a Fallout game. You have to consider, how many potential new consumers are you going to bring in if those IPs are already available on that platform. There is no Mario Party, Pokemon, or Smash Bros. game on the Switch yet so fans of those series will be more than likely picking up a Switch in greater quantaties than it would be a Fallout 4 player picking up another PS4 to play Fallout 76. 



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FentonCrackshell on 02 July 2018
Jranation said:
FentonCrackshell said:

PS4 down YOY and still ruling the roost. XBOX One need some “forward compatible” games and not to reply on cross-play to try to sell consoles. Switch is doing well and 3DS is still the kid’s choice award. Finally, who the heck is buying Vita? I know plenty of gamers and not a single gamer I know owns a Vita. 

As you can see. Like 99% is from Japan. There are still games that is coming to the Vita. And not every anime games are coming to the Switch. Sooo the Vita is the only handheld in the market that can play it. 

I see. I mean, I live in a country of roughly 330 million people. What are the chances that I’d know 1 of the 4 prople who bought a Vita?



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A mouse & keyboard are made for sending email and typing internet badassery. Not for playing video games!!!

DonFerrari on 02 July 2018

Switch got really close this week and X1 increased against last week. Nice showing.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari on 02 July 2018
FentonCrackshell said:

PS4 down YOY and still ruling the roost. XBOX One need some “forward compatible” games and not to reply on cross-play to try to sell consoles. Switch is doing well and 3DS is still the kid’s choice award. Finally, who the heck is buying Vita? I know plenty of gamers and not a single gamer I know owns a Vita. 

I own one =p



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

zorg1000 on 02 July 2018
Barkley said:
Ljink96 said:

Well, the last time they reported Switch numbers, they were off by like 1M+ units when Nintendo did their FY meeting. I tend to give VGC the benefit of the doubt more than often but I've been burned using the estimates in the past. And that was moreso my fault, as they are what they are; estimates. 

I don't think it was adjust up, Switch was adjusted slightly down for end of 2017 and early 2018 as far as I remember.

Found an article from 16th March (so before FY meeting) saying the figures as of Feb 24th were 15.016m, currently they're 14.966m for that week, so it has been adjusted down slightly, there's been no evidence that they were 1M+ units off.

Nope, it was adjusted upward close to 1 million at the end of 2017.

They had it at like 12.3m then Nintendo announced shipments of 14.8m and it got adjusted to 13.2m.

I remember because i kept saying they were undertracking Europe/RoW over the holidays and shipment data showed they were.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Barkley on 02 July 2018
zorg1000 said:
Barkley said:

I don't think it was adjust up, Switch was adjusted slightly down for end of 2017 and early 2018 as far as I remember.

Found an article from 16th March (so before FY meeting) saying the figures as of Feb 24th were 15.016m, currently they're 14.966m for that week, so it has been adjusted down slightly, there's been no evidence that they were 1M+ units off.

Nope, it was adjusted upward close to 1 million at the end of 2017.

They had it at like 12.3m then Nintendo announced shipments of 14.8m and it got adjusted to 13.2m.

I remember because i kept saying they were undertracking Europe/RoW over the holidays and shipment data showed they were.

That's right I remember now, it was adjusted up to 13.36m, and later they adjusted it down a bit again to 13.09m.



Intrinsic on 02 July 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said: 

Nah, the baseline of the PS4 this year is a good chunk lower than it was last year. This month it will fall behind last year by 1 full million already, and it doesn't look like summer will push many PS4 either until Spider hit the shelves in september. While PS4's December last year was weak, it had it's best November ever with a great BF deal (199 and 299$ for slim and pro, respectively) which made many buy their PS4 earler than planned. A 50$ pricecut won't be nearly enough to retake what has been lost over the course of the year until that point, and will have to make the same BF deal to have a chance to even equal last year's numbers. With the shift in console versions mentioned earlier, it looks like more and more are just upgrading and less new customers adding to the ecosystem than the raw number seem to imply.

It won't be down very far though, PS4 is still doing pretty well. I guess 16-18 are a real possibility. But imo that will be the last year with 15M+ sales for the PS4

Yh I agree, then again there is no telling what will happen if sony announces a $199 pricepoint around august or septembe, which would mean BF deals and xmas deals will see he console sold for even less than that. Sony has to know that this is the last year the PS4 could see sales in that 20M range (18-20M) so this is as good a time as any to drop the price.

I too expect a proper drop to around 15/16M next year.

Ljink96 said:
JRPGfan said:

Yeah its too early to tell yet... either of you could be right.

I can understand Intrinsics logic though.
Going by this thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=234574

2018 sales so far:
PS4 : 6,516,224 units
XB1 : 2,190,595 units
NSW : 4,804,066 units

The Switch is 1,71m+ down compaired to the PS4 so far, and its going to keep growing most likely up towards the holidays.
The Switch will have to have a monsterous holiday sales, to beat the PS4 in 2018.

I guess it comes down to

PS4 : Spiderman + Red Dead Redemption + Call of Duty/Battlefield + Shadow of the tombraider + Fallout 76 + more.
vs
Switch:  Octopath Traveler + Super Mario Party + Pokemon lets go + Super Smash Bro's + more.


I think the PS4 lineup is stronger towards the holidays, yes thats because of the 3rd party support, but you cant just ignore 3rd party.
They do have a impact.

True, the PS4 lineup is strong but Nintendo Switch, Naturally, has more selling potential than the PS4 this holiday. It's the newer device and PS4 already has a COD, Battlefield, Tombraider, and a Fallout game. You have to consider, how many potential new consumers are you going to bring in if those IPs are already available on that platform. There is no Mario Party, Pokemon, or Smash Bros. game on the Switch yet so fans of those series will be more than likely picking up a Switch in greater quantaties than it would be a Fallout 4 player picking up another PS4 to play Fallout 76. 

Spiderman and Red dead are the real system movers for the PS4 this holiday. That and a possible price drop.

The Switch will still have a better sales potential though as you have said, being that this is only its second holiday on the market and is possibly far from hitting market saturation.



zorg1000 on 02 July 2018
Intrinsic said:
Bofferbrauer2 said: 

Nah, the baseline of the PS4 this year is a good chunk lower than it was last year. This month it will fall behind last year by 1 full million already, and it doesn't look like summer will push many PS4 either until Spider hit the shelves in september. While PS4's December last year was weak, it had it's best November ever with a great BF deal (199 and 299$ for slim and pro, respectively) which made many buy their PS4 earler than planned. A 50$ pricecut won't be nearly enough to retake what has been lost over the course of the year until that point, and will have to make the same BF deal to have a chance to even equal last year's numbers. With the shift in console versions mentioned earlier, it looks like more and more are just upgrading and less new customers adding to the ecosystem than the raw number seem to imply.

It won't be down very far though, PS4 is still doing pretty well. I guess 16-18 are a real possibility. But imo that will be the last year with 15M+ sales for the PS4

Yh I agree, then again there is no telling what will happen if sony announces a $199 pricepoint around august or septembe, which would mean BF deals and xmas deals will see he console sold for even less than that. Sony has to know that this is the last year the PS4 could see sales in that 20M range (18-20M) so this is as good a time as any to drop the price.

I too expect a proper drop to around 15/16M next year.

Ljink96 said:

True, the PS4 lineup is strong but Nintendo Switch, Naturally, has more selling potential than the PS4 this holiday. It's the newer device and PS4 already has a COD, Battlefield, Tombraider, and a Fallout game. You have to consider, how many potential new consumers are you going to bring in if those IPs are already available on that platform. There is no Mario Party, Pokemon, or Smash Bros. game on the Switch yet so fans of those series will be more than likely picking up a Switch in greater quantaties than it would be a Fallout 4 player picking up another PS4 to play Fallout 76. 

Spiderman and Red dead are the real system movers for the PS4 this holiday. That and a possible price drop.

The Switch will still have a better sales potential though as you have said, being that this is only its second holiday on the market and is possibly far from hitting market saturation.

I think Sony's projections show that a price cut to $199 is not happening.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

DonFerrari on 02 July 2018
zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

Yh I agree, then again there is no telling what will happen if sony announces a $199 pricepoint around august or septembe, which would mean BF deals and xmas deals will see he console sold for even less than that. Sony has to know that this is the last year the PS4 could see sales in that 20M range (18-20M) so this is as good a time as any to drop the price.

I too expect a proper drop to around 15/16M next year.

Spiderman and Red dead are the real system movers for the PS4 this holiday. That and a possible price drop.

The Switch will still have a better sales potential though as you have said, being that this is only its second holiday on the market and is possibly far from hitting market saturation.

I think Sony's projections show that a price cut to $199 is not happening.

Sony may lowball predictions to be conservative but not in excess... so unless they were expecting a major drop without pricecut (unlikely) their projection shows that they weren't planning a price cut. But it still could happen depending on what happens on the next 3 months.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Nate4Drake on 02 July 2018

PS4 is truly dominating in Europe, and always on top in the Global, as expected. It's welcome the competition from the Switch, interesting numbers every week.



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.