So, after coming to terms with the fact that Nintendo will only have a single AAA exclusive for all of 2018, I've decided to compare previous years. Maybe this way, I can get some sort of insight into how many high-quality games we can expect Nintendo to make for the Switch. I'm not counting games made by companies that Nintendo no longer owns, so no Goldeneye. I'm using gamerankings, because they have the easiest way to navigate through years. I included all Nintendo developed games with a ranking of 80% or higher, and at least 10 reviews.
1996
Super Mario 64
Wave Race 64
1997
Starfox 64
Mario Kart 64
1998
F-Zero X
Ocarina of Time
1999
Mario Golf
Super Smash Bros. (Yeah I know it's not rated highly, but it was obviously a hugely influential game. In retrospect a true classic, no matter what critics at the time said.)
2000
Mario Tennis
Poke'mon Puzzle League
Excitebike 64
Mario Tennis
Majora's Mask
2001
Paper Mario
Super Smash Bros. Melee
Wave Race Blue Storm
Pikmin
2002
Metroid Prime
Super Mario Sunshine
Animal Crossing? (Not sure if I should count this one. Isn't it a port of an N64 game?)
2003
Mario Kart Double Dash
Windwaker
F-Zero GX
2004
Mario Power Tennis
Paper Mario: Thousand Year Door
Metroid Prime 2
Pikmin 2
Zelda: Four Swords
2005
Fire Emblem Path of Radiance
Donkey Kong Jungle Beat
2006
Twilight Princess
2007
Super Mario Galaxy
Metroid Prime 3
Super Paper Mario
2008
Brawl
Mario Kart Wii
2009
New Super Mario Bros.
Punch Out!
Wii Sports Resort
2010
Sin and Punishment Star Successor
DKC Returns
Super Mario Galaxy 2
Kirby's Epic Yarn
2011
Kirby's Return to Dreamland
Xenoblade Chronicles
Skyward Sword
2012
NSMBU
2013
3D World
Pikmin 3
2014
Mario Kart 8
Tropical Freeze
Treasure Tracker
Smash 4
2015
Xenoblade Chronicles X
Splatoon
Super Mario Maker
2016
Not. A. God. Damned. Thing.
2017
Super Mario Odyssey
Splatoon 2
Breath of the Wild
Xenoblade Chronicles 2
So what does all this mean? Well there were 60 quality games over the course of 22 years (At least when just counting home consoles). So Nintendo's 1st and 2nd party output on average is 2.7 games a year. Some years only have one game, and other years we get four games. 2017 was a really good year, giving us four great games (and one evergreen port), but 2016 was abysmal, with no games.
How does Nintendo's merging of it's handheld development studios factor into all this? Well it's really hard to say. Going from making games on 3DS to making games on Switch is a massive leap in workload. I'm sure we'll see all the usual handheld franchises like Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing, and Poke'mon, but beyond that I have no clue.
Overall, I think we can expect 15-19 new quality exclusives from Nintendo (counting what is already out) for Switch over the course of its 6-7 year life cycle. The math I used to come to this conclusion was 2.7 ((average output) x 6 (years)) + 3 (Those three handheld carryover franchises from 3DS).
BTW, if you think only getting 2 quality games a year is bad, I advise you not to buy a Switch. Because, historically Nintendo puts out 1-4 quality games a year for it's main system, and it's not guaranteed that all of them will interest you, personally.
Edit: Bolded the part that tells, how I formed this list. Hopefully that will clear up some confusion. Feel free to make your own lists if you like.
Edit: Bolded the part that informs people why I didn't include handheld games in this analysis. TIL people don't read the OP.
Last edited by Cerebralbore101 - on 23 June 2018