Quantcast
So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

Nah, I don't think so.

Switch now has no system sellers at all in the first 10 months of the year, there is nothing to spur the system's momentum until Pokemon in November, and Smash not coming out until less than 3 weeks before Christmas will limit its impact.

They really should have had Smash out in September or October, then 20m would've been a breeze. As things stand I expect hardware sales to slump badly between now and Let's Go.



Around the Network

I hope so. A lot of people I know are still waiting for a few more good games to come out for the Switch in order to justify buying it. If more people on the fence cross over then 20 million is possible.



Megiddo said:
20 million Switch units is still possible.

100 million software units is far, far, far out of reach.

If I remember correctly they reported 67M in the last fiscal year, so 100M doesn't seem that far off



quickrick said:

I agree with 100%. with zelda, mario odyssey, and mario kart already on switch, i don't see smash boosting sales much. people said the same thing about mario  odyssey with the hype being through the roof, and it being one of the highest rated games of all time, and its sales are phenomenal, yet switch in ocotber and december had average sales, pent up demand included. There best bet is pokemon. i see that being hit or miss in terms of moving hardware.

I think you're mistaken here because for one SMO launched in the last 3 days of October so most of it's impact is in November where Switch blew away other platforms. and secondly we know from Nintendo's themselves that around 2m units were moved in December because they confirmed 10m sold via their PR in the first week of December then with the end of year financial report almost 13m had been moved these are not average sales like you're saying.



This is till march. By that time we will also have Daemon X machina or fire emblem or both plus new surprises. And I wouldn't underestimate the power of Pokémon. I think if Nintendo can make enough they will sell. And smash is just the icing on the cake.



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Around the Network

I think it's still possible. Nintendo's E3 showing may have been disappointing but there is still good stuff coming for the rest of the year which people seem to be forgetting because they're too focused on how bad or disappointing the E3 direct was.

Mario Tennis Aces- June
Octopath Traveler, Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker -July
??? - August
??? - September
Super Mario Party - October
Pokemon Let's Go - November
Super Smash Bros Ultimate - December

Not to mention big games like Fortnite now being on the Switch, which I think can easily help push units for the system if they capitalize on the fact that it's the only place you can play Fortnite anywhere with console quality and proper controls. (There are already a couple people on Youtube that claim to have bought Switches solely after hearing Fortnite was coming to it).

Also there are games slated to release on the Switch in 2018 still like The World Ends with You Final Remix, Travis Strikes Again: No More Heroes, etc which could fill in some gaps in releases. 

Both Yoshi and Fire Emblem seemingly getting delayed doesn't help, since one could assume those were gonna be the games to fit in the August and September months, but aside from those 2 months they still have a new first party game or exclusive releasing each month for the remainder of the year.

You gotta remember as well that new games can be announced at any time, Nintendo even said expect more reveals in the coming weeks and months. Remember how DOOM was revealed barely 2 months before it launched back in 2017 for the Switch? Their fiscal year ends in March 2019 or somewhere around there I think, not sure, but still they could also have another big game early 2019 that can push units too. 

Last edited by FloatingWaffles - on 15 June 2018

Wyrdness said:
quickrick said:

I agree with 100%. with zelda, mario odyssey, and mario kart already on switch, i don't see smash boosting sales much. people said the same thing about mario  odyssey with the hype being through the roof, and it being one of the highest rated games of all time, and its sales are phenomenal, yet switch in ocotber and december had average sales, pent up demand included. There best bet is pokemon. i see that being hit or miss in terms of moving hardware.

I think you're mistaken here because for one SMO launched in the last 3 days of October so most of it's impact is in November where Switch blew away other platforms. and secondly we know from Nintendo's themselves that around 2m units were moved in December because they confirmed 10m sold via their PR in the first week of December then with the end of year financial report almost 13m had been moved these are not average sales like you're saying.

switch got blown out of the water in november by 800k vs ps4, and 600k xbox one. it won December it beat xbox by 130k i believe while ps4 had a bad December because xbox was so much cheaper selling 1.1 million.  



Megiddo said:
20 million Switch units is still possible.

100 million software units is far, far, far out of reach.

If they ship 20m Switch units they can easily ship 100m software units, how install base and number of games is growing, sales of software is also growing. You forgetting that games like Zelda BotW, MK8D, Splatoon 2, Mario Odyssey...contine to selling great this year also, and there are plenty of games (including 3rd party) this FY and Smash and Pokemon will sell great in any case.

 

curl-6 said: 

Nah, I don't think so.

Switch now has no system sellers at all in the first 10 months of the year, there is nothing to spur the system's momentum until Pokemon in November, and Smash not coming out until less than 3 weeks before Christmas will limit its impact.

They really should have had Smash out in September or October, then 20m would've been a breeze. As things stand I expect hardware sales to slump badly between now and Let's Go.

We talking about fiscal year, that start 1. April, so we dont talk about 10 months, and sales from January-March 2019. will also count.

 

quickrick said: 
Wyrdness said: 

Smash and Pokemon are bigger sellers than all those games with the exception MK.

smash and 3d mario have always been very close in sales, and 3d mario has taken it to a new level, I don't see smash doing the same.

Fact it that hevy hitters games are selling great on Switch, BotW become best selling 3D Zelda, MK8D best selling MK game after MK Wii, Splatoon 2 best selling Splatoon, Mario Odyssey will be best selling 3D Mario, even Kirby is on track to be best selling Kirby game, we can expect same from Mario Tennis...Smash Bros Ultimate will also most likly be best selling Smash Bros game.

 

mZuzek said: 
Wyrdness said: 

Smash and Pokemon are bigger sellers than all those games with the exception of MK.

Not spin-off Pokémon usually, but then again this is that spin-off that has the potential to sell as much as mainline games.

This is more casual Pokemon game, so actually it could even sell more than core Pokemon, but definitely will have great sales and it will be huge system seller in any case.



Pokemon in November will be massive, if they market this thing correctly there are hundreds of millions of GO players that could be swayed into buying a switch. i think last year was unprecedented in the fact we got kart, zelda, mario and splatoon, that meant that this E3 was always going to be a disappointment. But if we go back to any other generation and Nintendo showed smash and Pokemon on a home console the reaction would have been very different and people would have been saying Nintendo smashed it. Having said that it would have been nice if we got one or two peripheral games like a yoshi or luigi.



Miyamotoo said: 
curl-6 said: 

Nah, I don't think so.

Switch now has no system sellers at all in the first 10 months of the year, there is nothing to spur the system's momentum until Pokemon in November, and Smash not coming out until less than 3 weeks before Christmas will limit its impact.

They really should have had Smash out in September or October, then 20m would've been a breeze. As things stand I expect hardware sales to slump badly between now and Let's Go.

We talking about fiscal year, that start 1. April, so we dont talk about 10 months, and sales from January-March 2019. will also count.

There will most likely be no system seller in Jan-March of 2019 either, Nintendo almost never release big games in the first 4 months of the year nowadays. So it's still most likely going to be only 2 system sellers in 12 months.