I think it's still possible. Nintendo's E3 showing may have been disappointing but there is still good stuff coming for the rest of the year which people seem to be forgetting because they're too focused on how bad or disappointing the E3 direct was.

Mario Tennis Aces- June
Octopath Traveler, Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker -July
??? - August
??? - September
Super Mario Party - October
Pokemon Let's Go - November
Super Smash Bros Ultimate - December

Not to mention big games like Fortnite now being on the Switch, which I think can easily help push units for the system if they capitalize on the fact that it's the only place you can play Fortnite anywhere with console quality and proper controls. (There are already a couple people on Youtube that claim to have bought Switches solely after hearing Fortnite was coming to it).

Also there are games slated to release on the Switch in 2018 still like The World Ends with You Final Remix, Travis Strikes Again: No More Heroes, etc which could fill in some gaps in releases. 

Both Yoshi and Fire Emblem seemingly getting delayed doesn't help, since one could assume those were gonna be the games to fit in the August and September months, but aside from those 2 months they still have a new first party game or exclusive releasing each month for the remainder of the year.

You gotta remember as well that new games can be announced at any time, Nintendo even said expect more reveals in the coming weeks and months. Remember how DOOM was revealed barely 2 months before it launched back in 2017 for the Switch? Their fiscal year ends in March 2019 or somewhere around there I think, not sure, but still they could also have another big game early 2019 that can push units too. 

switch got blown out of the water in november by 800k vs ps4, and 600k xbox one. it won December it beat xbox by 130k i believe while ps4 had a bad December because xbox was so much cheaper selling 1.1 million.  

If they ship 20m Switch units they can easily ship 100m software units, how install base and number of games is growing, sales of software is also growing. You forgetting that games like Zelda BotW, MK8D, Splatoon 2, Mario Odyssey...contine to selling great this year also, and there are plenty of games (including 3rd party) this FY and Smash and Pokemon will sell great in any case.

We talking about fiscal year, that start 1. April, so we dont talk about 10 months, and sales from January-March 2019. will also count.

Fact it that hevy hitters games are selling great on Switch, BotW become best selling 3D Zelda, MK8D best selling MK game after MK Wii, Splatoon 2 best selling Splatoon, Mario Odyssey will be best selling 3D Mario, even Kirby is on track to be best selling Kirby game, we can expect same from Mario Tennis...Smash Bros Ultimate will also most likly be best selling Smash Bros game.

This is more casual Pokemon game, so actually it could even sell more than core Pokemon, but definitely will have great sales and it will be huge system seller in any case.

Pokemon in November will be massive, if they market this thing correctly there are hundreds of millions of GO players that could be swayed into buying a switch. i think last year was unprecedented in the fact we got kart, zelda, mario and splatoon, that meant that this E3 was always going to be a disappointment. But if we go back to any other generation and Nintendo showed smash and Pokemon on a home console the reaction would have been very different and people would have been saying Nintendo smashed it. Having said that it would have been nice if we got one or two peripheral games like a yoshi or luigi.

There will most likely be no system seller in Jan-March of 2019 either, Nintendo almost never release big games in the first 4 months of the year nowadays. So it's still most likely going to be only 2 system sellers in 12 months.

You're thinking of only NPD not WW for example the last two weeks of December Switch sold 1.2m and 640k units while in comparison PS4 sold 890k and 545k units with X1 at 477k and 277k units, financial report ending September Switch was at around 7m this means in Q4 it moved 5m or so around 2m of which we know was in December that leaves 3m for the other two months. These are not average sales like you say as it was a top selling platform in the period SMO released and even in the 3 days of October it released Switch sold 310k units WW PS4 that week sold 289k and this was when supply issues were still around.

My point was that it not true "that Switch now has no system sellers at all in the first 10 months of the year" beacause this 20m are forecasted for FY 2018. that starts on 1. April 2018.

Pokemon and espacily Smash Bros. will effect on sales in January-March period also. You can say there are only two games, but they are one of strongest Nintendo IPs and system seller games, you cant exepect much more than that in regular year if we talk about strongest and biggest Nintendo IPs.

I wasn't referring to the financial year. The problem is that there is nothing to spur Switch sales between now and Pokemon. That's 5 long months for momentum to diminish.

It's complicated.

In the first place, we don't know what percentage of the hardcore Pokémon and Smash fans already own a Switch, and we don't know what the crossover is between those two groups. We do know that both games will drive sales, but surely it would be conservative to say that they must add at least a three million unit sales bump, as well as becoming a driver for organic sales. Could be far more. This will be the best-looking Pokémon ever and it has the promise of a core game coming a year later, so if that takes off that's your twenty million right there.

Then there's LABO, which seems to have been a solid but unspectacular success so far. Kids like it, but parents love it, and that is bound to loosen purse strings come the first LABO holidays. A lot of families are going to like the visual of Gramps and Little Timmy building toys while the Turkey roasts.

Along the same lines, I know for a fact that there are still families playing Mario Party on the original Wii: that's their party game, and the presence of a new Mario Party will again count for something come the holidays.

The biggest imponderable may be Fortnite because we don't know yet how many people will buy a Switch just to be their Fortnite machine. People who started on mobile phone and now want to move to “proper” controls may well buy a Switch for that, even if they wouldn't normally buy a console. Could be a big factor or might count for little.

Overall, I can't see any reason why the twenty million can't be hit but it will require that Nintendo gets lucky with one or two of these elements.

Hole thread is about point of forecasted 20m Switch units that Nintendo forecasted for FY 2018. Games like Paladins, Fortnite, Splatoon 2: Octo Expansion, Captain Toad, Crash Bandicoot, Mario Tenis Aces, Octopath Traveler, Okami HD, Monster Hunter XX, Yokai Watch, Dark Souls Remastered, Fifa 19, Super Mario Party...are more than enugh to at least keep momentum for Switch (but probably we will have better sales than in same time period of last year) until Pokemon arives in November. Also we will probably have some other announcements of releases that will be out before Pokemon (more 3rd party games), for instance Paladins and Fortnite were announced and released on same day.