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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

Chorlin on 14 June 2018

Well, this could be something big:

https://nintendoeverything.com/panic-button-working-on-a-new-major-switch-port-expected-to-be-announced-next-month/



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Matador on 14 June 2018

It's possible but they will have to rely a lot on Japan. So it will depend of how well they sell in Japan. I do not see t his pokkemon game doing that great or moving that many consoles in the west. It will also depend on black Friday deals



Lonely_Dolphin on 14 June 2018
MasonADC said:
Lonely_Dolphin said:
The next time they showed the game was in the January Mini Direct where they told us it's exact release date.

Nope just doubled check. September 13th direct, near the end they gave us the spring 2018 launch
Derp my bad. Guess Fire Emblem releasing then is possible, especially if they only delayed it because the soonest it could release would conflict with Pokemon n Smash.

Mnementh on 14 June 2018
zorg1000 said:
Mnementh said:

I'm aware how holidays drive sales. But still I think they'll fall short. I think Nintendo needs to ramp up to 200K weekly at the end of Q2.

Well if they do ship 10 million over the holiday quarter than they need to average ~3.33 million in the other 3 quarters.

Last year the 3 non-holiday quarters averaged 2.6 million. Q1 only did 1.96 million due to severe production shortages, thats no longer a factor so shipments this quarter should be higher even if sell through is slightly lower.

Also with Pokemon+Smash in Nov/Dec vs Odyssey in Oct last year, it should cause for bigger post-holiday momentum so Q4 should be higher.

 

Even if they miss their target, they should still be pretty close.

Current sales 170K according to VGC. A quarter has 13 weeks. That makes 2.2M, quite a bit lower than your goal of 3.3M. As I said, weekly sales should soon start to improve. Otherwise the holidays have to be spectacular.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

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quickrick on 14 June 2018

Nintendo will not be doing any sales imo, because nintendo does't like to drop the price, unless they have too.



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Mnementh on 14 June 2018
Chorlin said:
Well, this could be something big:

https://nintendoeverything.com/panic-button-working-on-a-new-major-switch-port-expected-to-be-announced-next-month/

Well, that sounds nice. I'm intrigued, Panic Button does good work.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Podings on 14 June 2018

I don't think this E3 has affected their sales prospects in any negative manner, if that's what you're saying.



pokoko on 14 June 2018

Shipped? Sure, why not?



Ulternia on 14 June 2018
Megiddo said:
20 million Switch units is still possible.

100 million software units is far, far, far out of reach.

I don’t think it’s impossible. They have a stronger catalog than last year and their older titles are evergreens and still moving tons of units. They did 68.97M games with very few major releases - 100M should be rather doable, with 85M being likely.



zorg1000 on 14 June 2018
Mnementh said:
zorg1000 said:

Well if they do ship 10 million over the holiday quarter than they need to average ~3.33 million in the other 3 quarters.

Last year the 3 non-holiday quarters averaged 2.6 million. Q1 only did 1.96 million due to severe production shortages, thats no longer a factor so shipments this quarter should be higher even if sell through is slightly lower.

Also with Pokemon+Smash in Nov/Dec vs Odyssey in Oct last year, it should cause for bigger post-holiday momentum so Q4 should be higher.

 

Even if they miss their target, they should still be pretty close.

Current sales 170K according to VGC. A quarter has 13 weeks. That makes 2.2M, quite a bit lower than your goal of 3.3M. As I said, weekly sales should soon start to improve. Otherwise the holidays have to be spectacular.

We are talking shipments and i said average over 3 quarters. Just like last year, i expect Q1 to be the lowest.

Last fiscal year

Q1-1.96

Q2-2.93

Q3-7.24

Q4-2.93

 

I could see this year being something like

Q1-2.7

Q2-3.3

Q3-10.3

Q4-3.7



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