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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

Megiddo said:
Mar1217 said:
People shouldn't forget that we're talking about the 2018-2019 fiscal that ends at the end of March for Nintendo.

So it got plenty of times to do that :P Also, they're probably gonna push out FE Three Houses for the beginning of 2019 (Feb/Mar). That's 2 other decent games to look foward that can push sales.

 

No because their FE trailer said "Spring 2019". Spring begins March 21 so at the very earliest you'd only get 1-2 weeks of sales.

Kirby was set for spring and came out on the 16th



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MasonADC said:
Megiddo said:

 

No because their FE trailer said "Spring 2019". Spring begins March 21 so at the very earliest you'd only get 1-2 weeks of sales.

Kirby was set for spring and came out on the 16th

Nah they only said 2018 for Kirby.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cc3PAAije0Y

Lonely_Dolphin said:
MasonADC said:

Kirby was set for spring and came out on the 16th

Nah they only said 2018 for Kirby.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cc3PAAije0Y

In the september direct? 



Yes they will, the switch has a killer q4 lineup. 10 million is minimum for that quarter



Mnementh said:
zorg1000 said:

Last year Switch shipped like ~7.2 million from Oct-Dec with Mario Odyssey in Oct (~9m) & Xenoblade 2  in Dec (~1m) as 1st party titles.

This year has Mario Party in Oct (~1m), Pokemon in Nov (~10m) & Smash Bros in Dec (~10m) as first party titles.

On top of that, this year could have holiday bundles/deals unlike last year. It wouldnt surprise me if they ship 10 million Switches in that quarter alone.

I'm aware how holidays drive sales. But still I think they'll fall short. I think Nintendo needs to ramp up to 200K weekly at the end of Q2.

Well if they do ship 10 million over the holiday quarter than they need to average ~3.33 million in the other 3 quarters.

Last year the 3 non-holiday quarters averaged 2.6 million. Q1 only did 1.96 million due to severe production shortages, thats no longer a factor so shipments this quarter should be higher even if sell through is slightly lower.

Also with Pokemon+Smash in Nov/Dec vs Odyssey in Oct last year, it should cause for bigger post-holiday momentum so Q4 should be higher.

 

Even if they miss their target, they should still be pretty close.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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I think it will be around 15 - 16million. Which is still Amazing numbers.



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Yes. Pokemon and Smash are both 10m+ sellers, and for two very different fanbases (there's some overlap, but you know what I mean). Plus, a REAL Mario Party. There's no danger of them not making it to 20 million, unless they aren't able to produce enough.

And people will probably dismiss this, but some friends of mine want a Switch now for Fortnite. They hate the phone version and want a real controller, but also want to play on the go. So, there's at least a small amount of people that the "port"ability convinces.



MasonADC said:
Lonely_Dolphin said:
Nah they only said 2018 for Kirby.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cc3PAAije0Y

In the september direct? 

The next time they showed the game was in the January Mini Direct where they told us it's exact release date.

peachbuggy said:
Something big planned for 1st part of 2019 will help them attain the 20m imo.

If its Animal Crossing. It better be announced in the next direct. And release in March....... but I was hoping it would have been announced at e3 to somehow make this wish more believable.......but now..... its a No..... 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Lonely_Dolphin said:
MasonADC said:

In the september direct? 

The next time they showed the game was in the January Mini Direct where they told us it's exact release date.

Nope just doubled check. September 13th direct, near the end they gave us the spring 2018 launch