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So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

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RolStoppable said:
Mbolibombo said:

I'll just quote this to highlight it further. This is correct.

Nintendo did not lower their forecast after Q2. Thus they will and can ship what they feel they need to ship for Q3 to hit their forecast.

Why is Jumpin's post correct?

The issue are indeed retail sales, i.e. demand in the marketplace. Retailers won't buy the necessary units if the consumer demand isn't there. Nintendo defines 'shipped' as 'sold to retailers', so while it is clear that here is no problem to manufacture 20m units during this fiscal year, it's also obvious that those 20m won't be shipped if retailers aren't ordering them.

The commonly brought up idea of channel stuffing only works for holiday quarters, because outside of that retailers can't be convinced that there will be more demand than expected. The consequence of a stuffed channel is that Q4 of the fiscal year will be soft, because retailers have to work through their excess stock before they buy more units from the console manufacturer. If Nintendo for example shipped 11.5m in Q3 of this fiscal year while units are piling up at retailers, then Q4 would have a hard time to be above 2.5m.

zorg1000's example supports this despite him thinking otherwise. Sell-through of the PS4 from January to March 2017 was comfortably above 3m, but shipments were under 3m.

I'm going to knock this one out at the premise on which your whole argument sits.

For your post to be of any contradiction against mine, you'd have to demonstrate that the demand isn't there.

The Switch is selling quite well, and with an already healthy 2019 lineup announced with headlines like Pokemon coming up in 2019, there is no reason to think that consumer demand won't continue to be there, and high; and it's evident for any retail chains that this is the case.



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RolStoppable said:
Mbolibombo said:

I'll just quote this to highlight it further. This is correct.

Nintendo did not lower their forecast after Q2. Thus they will and can ship what they feel they need to ship for Q3 to hit their forecast.

Why is Jumpin's post correct?

The issue are indeed retail sales, i.e. demand in the marketplace. Retailers won't buy the necessary units if the consumer demand isn't there. Nintendo defines 'shipped' as 'sold to retailers', so while it is clear that there is no problem to manufacture 20m units during this fiscal year, it's also obvious that those 20m won't be shipped if retailers aren't ordering them.

The commonly brought up idea of channel stuffing only works for holiday quarters, because outside of that retailers can't be convinced that there will be more demand than expected. The consequence of a stuffed channel is that Q4 of the fiscal year will be soft, because retailers have to work through their excess stock before they buy more units from the console manufacturer. If Nintendo for example shipped 11.5m in Q3 of this fiscal year while units are piling up at retailers, then Q4 would have a hard time to be above 2.5m.

zorg1000's example supports this despite him thinking otherwise. Sell-through of the PS4 from January to March 2017 was comfortably above 3m, but shipments were under 3m.

Which is the quarter in question -  Q3 - holiday season, manufacturing is the only thing stoping Nintendo from not shipping intended consoles in Q3. And as I said Nintendo didnt lower their forecast before Q3 since they believed in their forecast, they have talks with retailers all year about their expectations, they're not going in blind with their own forecast. Clearly both Nintendo and retailers, had faith in what could be sold during the holidays and after which we see now is indeed happening.

As for the second bolded part, clearly you want to be prepared.  Dont want to be left hanging in the most important shopping period all year, if it piles you calibrate next quarter however it fits, there were 2 big games in January and February that year for Sony that they clearly were expecting to sell hardware and late shipments in Q3 clearly were intended for. Nintendo has a big game releasing early January that will likely push some hardware which will also need to be shipped in Q3. 



Mbolibombo said:
peachbuggy said:
11.5 or even more shipped for Switch in Q3 2018 is entirely possible, as is 3.5m in Q4, with said momentum. Not sure if this would be enough to meet their FY goals but, whilst a hard task i don't see it as impossible either.

They need 14.9M to hit their forecast. So your numbers are pretty much dead on what they need.. or something similar, myself is leaning towards another 0.5M in Q4 and 0.5M lesser in in Q3.

 

Well it is possible between any of those permutations or somewhat similar.



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In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

2 million in January is not unlikely. It looks like Smash is still selling like hot cakes and there are a few decent games this month. At least two im interested in purchasing.



By Mid March I bet there will be
35 Million Switches Shipped (NPD)
32.57 Million Switches Sold (VGChartz)



I have (or have/had in the household): ZX-81, Commidore 64, Amega, Sega Master System, Super Nintendo, Sega Megadrive, Gameboy, Playstation, Nintendo 64, Windows 95, Gameboy Colour, Windows 98, Sega Dreamcast, Gameboy Advance, PS2, Gamecube, Xbox, Windows XP, Nintendo DS, Xbox 360, Wii, PS3, Windows Vista, iPhone, Windows 7, 3DS, Wii U, PS4, Windows 10 & PSVR. Plus, I will be getting the New Nintendo Switch sometime in 2019 :D

and I Don't have: Magnovox Odyssey, Any Atari's, Any Macintosh computers, Nes, Sega Gamegear, Virtual Boy, Sega Saturn, N-gage, Xbox One, PSP, PSVita & Andoid Phone. Plus any non-main-stream consoles/platforms I haven't mentioned.

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00Xander00 said:
By Mid March I bet there will be
35 Million Switches Shipped (NPD)
32.57 Million Switches Sold (VGChartz)                             

NPD doesnt track global shipments



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I wasn't thinking lol. I forgot that NPD only does US sales figures XD.



I have (or have/had in the household): ZX-81, Commidore 64, Amega, Sega Master System, Super Nintendo, Sega Megadrive, Gameboy, Playstation, Nintendo 64, Windows 95, Gameboy Colour, Windows 98, Sega Dreamcast, Gameboy Advance, PS2, Gamecube, Xbox, Windows XP, Nintendo DS, Xbox 360, Wii, PS3, Windows Vista, iPhone, Windows 7, 3DS, Wii U, PS4, Windows 10 & PSVR. Plus, I will be getting the New Nintendo Switch sometime in 2019 :D

and I Don't have: Magnovox Odyssey, Any Atari's, Any Macintosh computers, Nes, Sega Gamegear, Virtual Boy, Sega Saturn, N-gage, Xbox One, PSP, PSVita & Andoid Phone. Plus any non-main-stream consoles/platforms I haven't mentioned.

Mbolibombo said:
peachbuggy said:
11.5 or even more shipped for Switch in Q3 2018 is entirely possible, as is 3.5m in Q4, with said momentum. Not sure if this would be enough to meet their FY goals but, whilst a hard task i don't see it as impossible either.

They need 14.9M to hit their forecast. So your numbers are pretty much dead on what they need.. or something similar, myself is leaning towards another 0.5M in Q4 and 0.5M lesser in in Q3.

 

Yeah, this is my expectation also, around 11m in Q3 and around 4m in Q4.



00Xander00 said:
By Mid March I bet there will be
35 Million Switches Shipped (NPD)
32.57 Million Switches Sold (VGChartz)

The ratio for last year was 1,10 :

VGC sold : 13,68

Nintendo Shipped : 15,06

(FY2017)



Current FY2018 prediction for ship. Switch : 18,01M

Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h28 (World Record)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

What is the average ratio of sell through vs. shipment of successful consoles over the last few generations?