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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

peachbuggy on 04 January 2019
Mbolibombo said:
peachbuggy said:
11.5 or even more shipped for Switch in Q3 2018 is entirely possible, as is 3.5m in Q4, with said momentum. Not sure if this would be enough to meet their FY goals but, whilst a hard task i don't see it as impossible either.

They need 14.9M to hit their forecast. So your numbers are pretty much dead on what they need.. or something similar, myself is leaning towards another 0.5M in Q4 and 0.5M lesser in in Q3.

 

Well it is possible between any of those permutations or somewhat similar.



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drinkandswim on 04 January 2019

2 million in January is not unlikely. It looks like Smash is still selling like hot cakes and there are a few decent games this month. At least two im interested in purchasing.



00Xander00 on 04 January 2019

By Mid March I bet there will be
35 Million Switches Shipped (NPD)
32.57 Million Switches Sold (VGChartz)



I have (or have/had in the household): ZX Spectrum, Commodore 64, Amiga, NES, Sega Master System, Super Nintendo, Sega Megadrive, Gameboy, Playstation, Nintendo 64, Windows 95, Gameboy Colour, Windows 98, Sega Dreamcast, Gameboy Advance, PS2, Gamecube, Xbox, Windows XP, Nintendo DS, Xbox 360, Wii, PS3, Windows Vista, iPhone, Windows 7, 3DS, Wii U, PS4, Windows 10, PSVR, Switch, PS5 & PSVR2. :D

and I Don't have: Magnovox Odyssey, Any Atari's, Any Macintosh computers, Sega Gamegear, Virtual Boy, Sega Saturn, N-gage, Xbox One, Xbox Series X/S, PSP, PSVita & Andoid Phone. Plus any non-main-stream consoles/platforms I haven't mentioned.

zorg1000 on 04 January 2019
00Xander00 said:
By Mid March I bet there will be
35 Million Switches Shipped (NPD)
32.57 Million Switches Sold (VGChartz)                             

NPD doesnt track global shipments



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00Xander00 on 04 January 2019

I wasn't thinking lol. I forgot that NPD only does US sales figures XD.



I have (or have/had in the household): ZX Spectrum, Commodore 64, Amiga, NES, Sega Master System, Super Nintendo, Sega Megadrive, Gameboy, Playstation, Nintendo 64, Windows 95, Gameboy Colour, Windows 98, Sega Dreamcast, Gameboy Advance, PS2, Gamecube, Xbox, Windows XP, Nintendo DS, Xbox 360, Wii, PS3, Windows Vista, iPhone, Windows 7, 3DS, Wii U, PS4, Windows 10, PSVR, Switch, PS5 & PSVR2. :D

and I Don't have: Magnovox Odyssey, Any Atari's, Any Macintosh computers, Sega Gamegear, Virtual Boy, Sega Saturn, N-gage, Xbox One, Xbox Series X/S, PSP, PSVita & Andoid Phone. Plus any non-main-stream consoles/platforms I haven't mentioned.

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Miyamotoo on 05 January 2019
Mbolibombo said:
peachbuggy said:
11.5 or even more shipped for Switch in Q3 2018 is entirely possible, as is 3.5m in Q4, with said momentum. Not sure if this would be enough to meet their FY goals but, whilst a hard task i don't see it as impossible either.

They need 14.9M to hit their forecast. So your numbers are pretty much dead on what they need.. or something similar, myself is leaning towards another 0.5M in Q4 and 0.5M lesser in in Q3.

 

Yeah, this is my expectation also, around 11m in Q3 and around 4m in Q4.



Amnesia on 05 January 2019
00Xander00 said:
By Mid March I bet there will be
35 Million Switches Shipped (NPD)
32.57 Million Switches Sold (VGChartz)

The ratio for last year was 1,10 :

VGC sold : 13,68

Nintendo Shipped : 15,06

(FY2017)



Fight-the-Streets on 05 January 2019

What is the average ratio of sell through vs. shipment of successful consoles over the last few generations?



Mbolibombo on 05 January 2019
RolStoppable said:

Mbolibombo said:

Which is the quarter in question -  Q3 - holiday season, manufacturing is the only thing stoping Nintendo from not shipping intended consoles in Q3. And as I said Nintendo didnt lower their forecast before Q3 since they believed in their forecast, they have talks with retailers all year about their expectations, they're not going in blind with their own forecast. Clearly both Nintendo and retailers, had faith in what could be sold during the holidays and after which we see now is indeed happening.

As for the second bolded part, clearly you want to be prepared.  Dont want to be left hanging in the most important shopping period all year, if it piles you calibrate next quarter however it fits, there were 2 big games in January and February that year for Sony that they clearly were expecting to sell hardware and late shipments in Q3 clearly were intended for. Nintendo has a big game releasing early January that will likely push some hardware which will also need to be shipped in Q3. 

Nintendo sticking to their forecast does not give any indication for retailer expectations, so you can't take it for granted that retailers have agreed to buy that many units from Nintendo. Five years ago Nintendo stuck with their 9m forecast for Wii U before the holiday season, so that's a good example that there's no link between Nintendo forecasts and retailer expectations/agreements; said forecast had to be lowered to 2.8m during the following financial report, so Nintendo's belief from three months earlier was not even remotely in the realms of possibility. Nintendo won't be that far off with Switch, but them sticking with their forecast doesn't provide any sort of guarantee other than they have no manufacturing problems. Nintendo still needs retailers to buy those units though.

In the case of the PS4, Q4 has been repeatedly weak because the preceding holiday quarter had retailers overestimate demand for the PS4. Remember, ultimately it's the retailers that dictate the size of shipments.

The Wii U situation is not at all the same is the current one though so comparing it doesnt really make much sense. Nintendo had already cut the forecast the previous in the Wii U lifespan at that point and with a much lesser software lineup to boot so there's also difference from this time around. Heck Nintendo even had to buy back some of their stock I believe. Much better to look at other succesful platforms like the Wii and DS. Sticking to a forecast is never a guarantee of anything, just that they still believe it's possible. And clearly, retailers holds Nintendo stricter this time around after rough times with the Wii U and hard times to start the life of the 3DS. 

But yes, ultimately it's the retailers that dictate the shipments. But that's never been a question. I dont really think we're in a big disagreement here really, just different approaches.



Fight-the-Streets on 06 January 2019

I rethought the situation and I came to the conclusion that 20 mil. will be reached. To sell-through 9 mil. in Q3 is actually thinking moderately (most probably it will be closer to 10 mil.). If they sell-through 9 mil. it means the shipment will be around 11 mil. Regarding Q4 I think the following: Q2 (July to September) had no big releases (Mario Tennis Aces is actually a Q1 release, sold well so far but isn't really a system-seller, Octopath Traveler sold well too but isn't really a system-seller as well (except in Japan where it helped to sell systems), Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker is definitely not a system-seller) yet over 3 mil. units were shipped.

Q4 with the hype of Super Smash Bros. Ultimate and Pokémon Let's Go plus New Super Mario U Deluxe will definitely be stronger than Q2. I think 4 mil. shipment is a given.

Therefore, the grand total of shipment will be as follow: 11 mil. in Q3, 4 mil. in Q4  plus the 5.07 mil. of the first half year = 20.07 mil. in fiscal year.

Last edited by Fight-the-Streets - on 06 January 2019