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So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

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Fight-the-Streets said:
I stand by my opinion: If they can do 10 mil. or close to in Q3 (and it seems by now that this will come true), the 20 mil. for FY are possible. To make 5 mil. in Q4 is hard to do but doable. Since New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe comes out in early Jan it now has some weight in favour of meeting the target. On top of that, Dragon Quest Builders 2 came out yesterday in Japan. This game is huge in Japan and will definitely boost some console units.

Dragon Quest Builders 2 seems to be doing quite a bit below the first.



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17 million units by the end of this FY, unless Nintendo releases new SKU before end of March (on 2nd anniversary maybe?), then sure, 20 mil easily.



Looking like a possible 5m December as sales goes so shipments for Q3 as a whole must be significant in reducing the gap the investors report in January will be an intriguing one.



I said it on an old thread and I'll say it here: yes. And if I'm wrong, then I'm wrong.



Wyrdness said:
Looking like a possible 5m December as sales goes so shipments for Q3 as a whole must be significant in reducing the gap the investors report in January will be an intriguing one.

5M seems minimum performance right now, I'm thinking more like 6M



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19,66...
I adjust this projection every weeks...



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If Nintendo was going to miss it by a few hundred k would they stuff the channels to hit it? Imo they either miss it by a margin or hit it.



It's certainly starting to look closer. I'm guessing they'll still be at 17-18 million sold, but with the holiday sales numbers, I'm sure stores will feel safe in stocking up on extra units. 2 million shipped is still a stretch, but not as crazy as it once sounded.




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I must still live in another dimension regarding this topic, seriously. How is going to reach 20M SHIPPED by March if Switch is going to end SELLING around 16-16'5M in 2018 ?(is around 13M with 3 weeks left to end the year). By Q3 official numbers, Swith should be around 32M SHIPPED, so add another 2M, 3M max for Q4 and you have 35M at most and 34M at worst. To reach 20M shipped they need to be close to 38M by March end. In other words...is not happening.



colafitte said:

I must still live in another dimension regarding this topic, seriously. How is going to reach 20M SHIPPED by March if Switch is going to end SELLING around 16-16'5M in 2018 ?(is around 13M with 3 weeks left to end the year). By Q3 official numbers, Swith should be around 32M SHIPPED, so add another 2M, 3M max for Q4 and you have 35M at most and 34M at worst. To reach 20M shipped they need to be close to 38M by March end. In other words...is not happening.

This is precisely why me and a few others have invested in shares...It is because most of people don't see it happening.

Consider also that a 19M would only mean a miss by 5%, which should be considered as a victory as well.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary