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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

Barkley on 01 August 2018
Amnesia said:

Ah you think so ?

 

Q3 =

Sept : Mario party

Oct : 2 pokemon

Nov : SSBU

 

Do you need something else to have your potential best Q3 ever ?

Yes you need more it's not all about games but the systems momentum, the Switch isn't close to the strength of the DS or Wii during their peaks, the momentum isn't their to post a 12m quarter.

The Switch has no chance of matching DS/WII peak holiday shipments this year regardless of the games they release.



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Chicho on 01 August 2018

well nintendo said they'll ship 20 millions so they can always overship to reach the goal. Consumer don't have to buy 20 mil, only retailers do.



zorg1000 on 01 August 2018
Chicho said:

well nintendo said they'll ship 20 millions so they can always overship to reach the goal. Consumer don't have to buy 20 mil, only retailers do.

Maybe to a slight degree but they can only ship the amount that retailers will accept, they cant just force retailers to stock millions of units they dont want.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

PortisheadBiscuit on 01 August 2018

Error

Last edited by PortisheadBiscuit - on 01 August 2018

Amnesia on 01 August 2018

Nintendo knows the right method now : they will spam us every weeks with trailers on mario party/pokemon/ssbu from September to Christmas.



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PortisheadBiscuit on 01 August 2018
Green098 said:
Depends on how much Nintendo is willing to go to reach their own target. If they're happy with being a million or two off but with maximised profits then probably not. But if they think it's important to get that bigger install base they can go 3DS and give Switch price cuts, bundles, probably too early for a revision but they can release special coloured editions.

I think this is pretty much the gist of it. Nintendo loves profits, seemingly more than volume sales. The fact that profits and software attach rates are so high, I feel like Nintendo doesn't have much incentive at the moment to offer many discounts. At the most I see $250 standalone for black Friday or a bundle for $299. Thats IF they plan on any holiday deals.



Fight-the-Streets on 03 August 2018

I think 10 mil. for Oct - Dec is doable but tough. Roughly 2 mil. were sold from Mar - Jun. This means they have to sell roughly 4 mil. from Jul - Sep and another 4 from Jan - March. Jul - Sep will definitely be weaker, so they probably will only make about 2.5 mil. That means they have to sell roughly 5.5 mil. from Jan - Mar which is tough but possible as SMBU will come out in Dec, it means it will do great numbers in Jan too and at the same time still will be a system-seller in Jan and beyond. (The 120'000 missing from Q1 to match 2 mil. will be sold anywhere between).

So, yes 20 mil. is still possible but tough (Nintendo never said it will be easy).



Chorlin on 30 October 2018

So, with the new numbers, what do you guys think??



Barkley on 30 October 2018
Chorlin said:
So, with the new numbers, what do you guys think??

Still no. 18.5m is my guess.



Amnesia on 30 October 2018
Chorlin said:
So, with the new numbers, what do you guys think??

The probability to make it seems to me a little little little bit higher than before, but I am on a 19-19,5M prediction still.

As somone said here : having Animal Crossing before the end of the Q4 could increase a lot the probabilities to reach the 20M.