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So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

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Supermario28 said:

I tried to do some very rough maths to see what impact Smash and Pokemon should have to make these 20 millions possible.

According to vg chartz:
Switch sold 4'440'000 units in five months in 2018. it's 888'000 units per month. To do the math, i consider these like regular months without big releases. (http://www.vgchartz.com/article/276881/year-on-year-sales-amp-market-share-charts-june-2-2018/
Between early october and december 2017, Switch sold 6'800'000 units (2'266'666 / month). It includes holiday season, black friday and SMO release.

 

So now if we multiply Switch regular months sales by the number of regular months it's:

888'000 * 9 = 7'992'000 Units, We can say 8'000'000. I counted from April 2018 to September 2018 (6 months) and from January 2019 to March 2019 (3 months, end of FY 2018)

Let's say we add 1 milion of uncertainty, the total sale for 9 regular months is 9'000'000 Units. (1'000'000/month)

Soooooo it leaves 11'000'000 units to sale in three holiday months, 3'666'666/month (October/november/december). it's more or less 4'000'000 units more than last holiday season

It represents a 60% increase compared to last year's holiday. I'm talking about sold through and not shipped.

 

Do yo think Smash and pokemon will be able to move this amount of systems? I think it could be very difficult to reach the target

I think your calculations are off for the upcoming months. You said it yourself that the 880k per month figure comes from months without any bigger release, the best Switch had in a month before June this year was either one medium seller with Kirby or 2 remaster with Donkey Kong and Hyrule Warriors. January to May was a real drought for the Switch.

June is already shaping up to be a much better month for Nintendo due to getting lots of great games and not just one to keep the baseline going. July also has some great releases, though less than June because many of them were originally meant to release in July. August is a bit weak so far, and September is the month with the sports game releases, so that alone will push sales already.

What is however the biggest shortcoming of your calculation is that it does not acknowledge the boost in sales Switch will definitely have early next year after the 1-2 punch of Smash and Pokémon, plus whatever game may release in that time (maybe fire Emblem? Yoshi? Or something yet unknown? Time will tell).

So basically, you could increase the monthly rate higher than your 880k because it does not acknowledge what we already know about to come. At the same moment, Smash and Pokémon will lead to a, ehm, smashing holiday season with sales well above last year.

All that's missing is some promotional action like a pricecut or, more probable, a black Friday deal to fill up the gap to the 18-20M



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Supermario28 said:

I tried to do some very rough maths to see what impact Smash and Pokemon should have to make these 20 millions possible.

According to vg chartz:
Switch sold 4'440'000 units in five months in 2018. it's 888'000 units per month. To do the math, i consider these like regular months without big releases. (http://www.vgchartz.com/article/276881/year-on-year-sales-amp-market-share-charts-june-2-2018/
Between early october and december 2017, Switch sold 6'800'000 units (2'266'666 / month). It includes holiday season, black friday and SMO release.

 

So now if we multiply Switch regular months sales by the number of regular months it's:

888'000 * 9 = 7'992'000 Units, We can say 8'000'000. I counted from April 2018 to September 2018 (6 months) and from January 2019 to March 2019 (3 months, end of FY 2018)

Let's say we add 1 milion of uncertainty, the total sale for 9 regular months is 9'000'000 Units. (1'000'000/month)

Soooooo it leaves 11'000'000 units to sale in three holiday months, 3'666'666/month (October/november/december). it's more or less 4'000'000 units more than last holiday season

It represents a 60% increase compared to last year's holiday. I'm talking about sold through and not shipped.

 

Do yo think Smash and pokemon will be able to move this amount of systems? I think it could be very difficult to reach the target

I think your calculations are off for the upcoming months. You said it yourself that the 880k per month figure comes from months without any bigger release, the best Switch had in a month before June this year was either one medium seller with Kirby or 2 remaster with Donkey Kong and Hyrule Warriors. January to May was a real drought for the Switch.

June is already shaping up to be a much better month for Nintendo due to getting lots of great games and not just one to keep the baseline going. July also has some great releases, though less than June because many of them were originally meant to release in July. August is a bit weak so far, and September is the month with the sports game releases, so that alone will push sales already.

What is however the biggest shortcoming of your calculation is that it does not acknowledge the boost in sales Switch will definitely have early next year after the 1-2 punch of Smash and Pokémon, plus whatever game may release in that time (maybe fire Emblem? Yoshi? Or something yet unknown? Time will tell).

So basically, you could increase the monthly rate higher than your 880k because it does not acknowledge what we already know about to come. At the same moment, Smash and Pokémon will lead to a, ehm, smashing holiday season with sales well above last year.

All that's missing is some promotional action like a pricecut or, more probable, a black Friday deal to fill up the gap to the 18-20M

I think Yoshi, Fire Emblem and Demon X Machina will push sales like Kirby did, so not a lot. I don't think the sports game in september wil have much of an impact on hardware sales on the long run. 

I already added 120k per regular month in the calculation to acknowledge any hardware sales increase due to some games releasing like last week (YS, Crash and Wolfentein).

I agree I counted early 2019 like all the other months even if these months should sell more due to Smash and Pokemon.

So if we adjust the calculation i think it's ok to stick with 1'000'000 per month until early october and add a 33% increase for early 2019 (which is already quite optimistic i think) to 1'333'333/month.

Now it would be:

6 x 1'000'000: 6'000'000 (April to September 2018)

+

3 x 1'333'333: 4'000'000 (January to March 2019)

=

 Total without holiday season: 10'000'000 Units

Leaving 10'000'000 for October/november/December, 3'333'333/month, including some bundles with smosh or Pokemon, or any black friday deals.

 

But I checked Wii's 2009 FY, it sold 20.7 millions:

Monthly sales from January to end of May : 1'180'000/month

Monthly sales from October to December: 3'888'000/month, so it's maybe something switch can repeat.




I was septical still 1 month ago, but niw I can ber thet will ship 21M.
Dont forget that their target is 20M from April 1st 2018 to April 1st 2019.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

Amnesia said:
I was septical still 1 month ago, but niw I can ber thet will ship 21M.
Dont forget that their target is 20M from April 1st 2018 to April 1st 2019.

Yeah i did the calculation form April 2018 to end of March 2019.

I just used the data from January to May 2018 to have an average sales number per month. (880k that i rounded up to 1000k)

Then I multiplied this result by the number of months in FY 2018,  without holiday season and with an increase of 33% in early 2019.



If we compare the fiscal year cumulation, there is almost no doubt...19,5M is the minimum I expect.

It already outsell the previous fiscal year with only Nintendo Labo to cover the first 3 months of fiscal year 2018.

The heavy load is starting to come from end of June and it will end with SSBU for Chrismass.

Last edited by Amnesia - on 03 July 2018

Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

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EDIT : it will destroy it imo.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

@Amnesia Right, but last year during these months there were supply shortages which limited supply.

Also I think that arrow is pointing towards Mario Kart. Splatoon released sometime in summer (I'd guess week 29 from your graph).



ah...So I have added "Splatoon 2" at the wrong place, I am fixing this right now

Last edited by Amnesia - on 03 July 2018

Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

maxleresistant said:
nemo37 said:

There are plenty of games that do that. Just look at the recent Tomb Raider games, the Battlefront/Battlefield titles, EA Sports titles,  etc. All of these are based on the engines of their predecessors and many share assets with their predecessors. In the case of Smash specifically, why would you create a new graphics engine and assets when the Switch is not far more graphically powerful than Wii U? 

I do agree though that if Nintendo wanted to reach 20 million this year, they should have had more big hitter lined up throughout the year (not just at the end), hopefully they have a more robust output in 2019.

I'm not saying it is wrong to use the same engine. The thing is every smash Bros episode are a leap in terms of graphics, content, characters. So there was obviously this kind of expectation for a smash Bros switch.

I'm just saying why this episode doesn't feel like a leap, why the game doesn't have the positive buzz it should have.

 

Personally, I think the series needs a complete overhaul, it's peaked with melee and since then each new episode have been disappointing.

Super Smash Bros Brawl 2008 Fighting Nintendo 6.64 2.57 2.67 1.03 12.91


Supermario28 said:

I tried to do some very rough maths to see what impact Smash and Pokemon should have to make these 20 millions possible.

According to vg chartz:
Switch sold 4'440'000 units in five months in 2018. it's 888'000 units per month. To do the math, i consider these like regular months without big releases. (http://www.vgchartz.com/article/276881/year-on-year-sales-amp-market-share-charts-june-2-2018/
Between early october and december 2017, Switch sold 6'800'000 units (2'266'666 / month). It includes holiday season, black friday and SMO release.

 

So now if we multiply Switch regular months sales by the number of regular months it's:

888'000 * 9 = 7'992'000 Units, We can say 8'000'000. I counted from April 2018 to September 2018 (6 months) and from January 2019 to March 2019 (3 months, end of FY 2018)

Let's say we add 1 milion of uncertainty, the total sale for 9 regular months is 9'000'000 Units. (1'000'000/month)

Soooooo it leaves 11'000'000 units to sale in three holiday months, 3'666'666/month (October/november/december). it's more or less 4'000'000 units more than last holiday season

It represents a 60% increase compared to last year's holiday. I'm talking about sold through and not shipped.

 

Do yo think Smash and pokemon will be able to move this amount of systems? I think it could be very difficult to reach the target

These calculations seem fairly reasonable to me.

I have been fairly pessimistic about Nintendo so far for this year, but I am going to have to amend my predictions.  I was originally projecting 12m, but now I think they will sell at least 16m, maybe more.  Here are two big games that I didn't think they'd get.

1) Pokemon Let's Go - It's not going to sell quite as well as a mainline Pokemon game, but it is still going to sell extremely well.  Kids and Pokemon Go players are going to want this game making it a huge holiday title.  I was confident that GameFreak couldn't get out a mainline Pokemon title this year, and while I was technically right, this game is really the best possible spinoff they could have ever put out.

2) Fortnite - This game is huge right now, and Switch is really the ideal platform to play it on.  I was shocked to find out just how much money people are spending on this "free to play" game.  

"In a survey of 1,000 Fortnite players, financial education company Lendedu found that 68.8% of them have spent at least some money on in-game Fortnite purchases. And among those who spend cash inside the wildly popular battle royale game, average spending tops $84.67."
http://fortune.com/2018/06/27/fortnite-average-spending/

I wouldn't be surprised if Switch hardware sales just magically start going up even though it won't have any big retail games until the end of the year.  Fortnite is going to be the game moving hardware until Nintendo can out their big first party games.