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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

quickrick said:
PAOerfulone said:


"when the pokemon came to 3ds in 2013 holiday sales were weaker then the previous year."

Probably because X/Y came out in the second week of October, not  in the holiday season, especially not the week before Black Friday, like Let's Go P/E is releasing. So while November and December 2013 were down, October was a bloodbath in 2013's favor. In that 13 week period for both years, from the release of Pokemon X/Y to the last week of the year the 3DS did these numbers:
2012 (No Pokemon): 6,690,446
2013 (Pokemon X/Y, and the 3DS' peak year): 7,309,001
If X/Y had been released in November, or even the last week of October, it absolutely would have sold better than the year before. From the first week of November to the last week of the year, 2012 did 6.08 million, 2013 did 6.03 million. By then, the X/Y had been out for a little over 3 weeks and it had worn off a bit. But if you want to include October, ya know, the actual month when it released, it's no contest. The last 3 months of 2013 killed the last 3 months of 2012.
Plus, there's also the fact that Pokemon GO in July 2016 led to the 3DS beating the PS4 and Xbox One in the July NPD, and that combined with Pokemon Sun/Moon led to the 3DS being up YoY in 2016 to 2015, despite the system beginning showing its age at the time.

"same with smash on wii u, and 3ds"
3DS, sure.
Wii U, no. During the 10 week period from the first week of November to the end of year, 2013 Wii U did 1.675 million, while 2014 Wii U, which had Smash Bros., did 1.721 million. And that was with the 3DS version already being out for nearly 2 months. Smash 4 being on two systems took away from the system selling potential of the game. Because you if you could have easily made the case of, "If I have it on 3DS, why do I need it for Wii U?" And vice versa. I guarantee you if Smash 4 had been exclusive to either system, that system's sales from release to the rest of the year would have been significantly better.

Pokemon and Smash are 2 of the biggest system sellers they have. And they're releasing within 3 weeks of each other, right in the middle of the holiday season. You're damn right they're going to do very big numbers.

And you've got some nerve calling out people on hyperbole, Mr. "Fall Off A Cliff."

So what if we include oct-dec 2013 3ds beat 2012 by like what 200k, it's not like it the second coming people are making to be, and lets remember 3ds was 179.99$ so parents, and pokeman fans it was a very little investment money wise. At this point  mario odyssey is bigger then smash, when smash releases and if does beat mario odyssey then we can talk about it that, i bet it won't, plus its releasing very late into the holidays that will hurt it. I'm not gonna keep repeating myself but 2017 line up looks much much better then 2018, you had 2 massive franchises being labeled best game ever by the media, and scoring 97, then you had mario kart 8 delux which probably do 20 million, and splatoon 2, switch was also the new hotness, and stock issues till sept- october. looking forward to the holidays, will happily eat crow. 

So, you have a crystal ball to know 3D Mario is bigger than Smash right now? You seem to know more than absolutely everyone, considering Smash isn't launching for 6 months! I would like to see some proof, rather than your own opinion that 3D Mario is bigger than Smash right now.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

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peachbuggy said:
quickrick said:

So what if we include oct-dec 2013 3ds beat 2012 by like what 200k, it's not like it the second coming people are making to be, and lets remember 3ds was 179.99$ so parents, and pokeman fans it was a very little investment money wise. At this point  mario odyssey is bigger then smash, when smash releases and if does beat mario odyssey then we can talk about it that, i bet it won't, plus its releasing very late into the holidays that will hurt it. I'm not gonna keep repeating myself but 2017 line up looks much much better then 2018, you had 2 massive franchises being labeled best game ever by the media, and scoring 97, then you had mario kart 8 delux which probably do 20 million, and splatoon 2, switch was also the new hotness, and stock issues till sept- october. looking forward to the holidays, will happily eat crow. 

So, you have a crystal ball to know 3D Mario is bigger than Smash right now? You seem to know more than absolutely everyone, considering Smash isn't launching for 6 months! I would like to see some proof, rather than your own opinion that 3D Mario is bigger than Smash right now.

I'm not using my crystal ball. like i said before 3d mario and smash are always close sales wise, but mario odyssey has taking it to a new level, it has sold like what 10 million in it's first 4-5 months , it's on its way to demolish any 3d mario or smash game before it, so we will have to wait to see if smash can match those sales, as of now its the bigger franchise. 

Last edited by quickrick - on 21 June 2018

quickrick said:
peachbuggy said:

So, you have a crystal ball to know 3D Mario is bigger than Smash right now? You seem to know more than absolutely everyone, considering Smash isn't launching for 6 months! I would like to see some proof, rather than your own opinion that 3D Mario is bigger than Smash right now.

I'm not using my crystal ball. like i said before 3d mario and smash are always close sales wise, but mario odyssey has taking it to a new level, it has sold like what 10 million in it's first 4-5 months , it's on its way to demolish and 3d mario or smash game before it, so we will have to wait to see if smash can match those sales, as of now its the bigger franchise. 

Smash Bros "Ultimate" will likely do the same so your comment and opinion is moot. Especially since we have no way of knowing what will sell better until 2019 at the earliest. I expect Smash to outsell Odyssey first couple  easily. From the launch months at least. You are clearly in the minority here, thinking 3D Mario is bigger than Smash. If you don't believe me, why not make a poll about it? Prepare to be surprised though.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

peachbuggy said:
quickrick said:

I'm not using my crystal ball. like i said before 3d mario and smash are always close sales wise, but mario odyssey has taking it to a new level, it has sold like what 10 million in it's first 4-5 months , it's on its way to demolish and 3d mario or smash game before it, so we will have to wait to see if smash can match those sales, as of now its the bigger franchise. 

Smash Bros "Ultimate" will likely do the same so your comment and opinion is moot. Especially since we have no way of knowing what will sell better until 2019 at the earliest. I expect Smash to outsell Odyssey first couple  easily. From the launch months at least. You are clearly in the minority here, thinking 3D Mario is bigger than Smash. If you don't believe me, why not make a poll about it? Prepare to be surprised though.

Smash has never reached those level of sales, i think mario odyssey had way more hype then smash, and scoring 97 gav ite another extra huge boost.

you can make a poll what will sell better mario odyssey or smash ultimate, should be a good one.



quickrick said:
peachbuggy said:

Smash Bros "Ultimate" will likely do the same so your comment and opinion is moot. Especially since we have no way of knowing what will sell better until 2019 at the earliest. I expect Smash to outsell Odyssey first couple  easily. From the launch months at least. You are clearly in the minority here, thinking 3D Mario is bigger than Smash. If you don't believe me, why not make a poll about it? Prepare to be surprised though.

Smash has never reached those level of sales, i think mario odyssey had way more hype then smash, and scoring 97 gav ite another extra huge boost.

you can make a poll what will sell better mario odyssey or smash ultimate, should be a good one.

"Smash has never reached those levels of sales."
Brawl says hi. 

"I think Mario Odyssey had way more hype then Smash."
Just wait until we get closer to Smash's release and more information comes out and you'll see which one has more hype. 

"And scoring 97 gave it another extra boost."
It didn't work for Galaxy 1, since Brawl outsold it. I doubt it'll work here.




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PAOerfulone said:
quickrick said:

Smash has never reached those level of sales, i think mario odyssey had way more hype then smash, and scoring 97 gav ite another extra huge boost.

you can make a poll what will sell better mario odyssey or smash ultimate, should be a good one.

"Smash has never reached those levels of sales."
Brawl says hi. 

"I think Mario Odyssey had way more hype then Smash."
Just wait until we get closer to Smash's release and more information comes out and you'll see which one has more hype. 

"And scoring 97 gave it another extra boost."
It didn't work for Galaxy 1, since Brawl outsold it. I doubt it'll work here.


 mario galaxy 12.77 million vs 13.27 smash they nearly sold the same, but thats Ltd on wii which had a huge user base. mario odyssey is already near those sales in 5 months, it's probably at 11-12 million shipped now it will get to 18-20 million ltd, how is  that in the same league? besides we are going way too far back, i rather judge the last entry, not something from 11 years years ago. 3d mario and smash have sold similar, and  mario odyssey took to a new level that should clear to anyone looking at sales.

As for hype based on youtube views  mario odyssey is crushing it, as it should its a much fresher concept, compared to smash, which looks like a iterative sequel. 

Last edited by quickrick - on 21 June 2018

quickrick said:
peachbuggy said:

Smash Bros "Ultimate" will likely do the same so your comment and opinion is moot. Especially since we have no way of knowing what will sell better until 2019 at the earliest. I expect Smash to outsell Odyssey first couple  easily. From the launch months at least. You are clearly in the minority here, thinking 3D Mario is bigger than Smash. If you don't believe me, why not make a poll about it? Prepare to be surprised though.

Smash has never reached those level of sales, i think mario odyssey had way more hype then smash, and scoring 97 gav ite another extra huge boost.

you can make a poll what will sell better mario odyssey or smash ultimate, should be a good one.

You want hype? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XV3d8YRMIsA

That is just a very small part of it. Smash is making more people much more hyped than Mario did. This ULTIMATE Smash will easily become the best selling Smash,i have no doubt about that. As for metacritic, i doubt it will go as high as 97 but i also doubt it will make much difference sales-wise tbh.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

peachbuggy said:
quickrick said:

Smash has never reached those level of sales, i think mario odyssey had way more hype then smash, and scoring 97 gav ite another extra huge boost.

you can make a poll what will sell better mario odyssey or smash ultimate, should be a good one.

You want hype? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XV3d8YRMIsA

That is just a very small part of it. Smash is making more people much more hyped than Mario did. This ULTIMATE Smash will easily become the best selling Smash,i have no doubt about that. As for metacritic, i doubt it will go as high as 97 but i also doubt it will make much difference sales-wise tbh.

mario is getting like 3x the views on youtube, but ok...



N

quickrick said:
PAOerfulone said:

"Smash has never reached those levels of sales."
Brawl says hi. 

"I think Mario Odyssey had way more hype then Smash."
Just wait until we get closer to Smash's release and more information comes out and you'll see which one has more hype. 

"And scoring 97 gave it another extra boost."
It didn't work for Galaxy 1, since Brawl outsold it. I doubt it'll work here.


 mario galaxy 12.77 million vs 13.27 smash they nearly sold the same, but thats Ltd on wii which had a huge user base. mario odyssey is already near those sales in 5 months, it's probably at 11-12 million shipped now it will get to 18-20 million ltd, how is  that in the same league? besides we are going way too far back, i rather judge the last entry, not something from 11 years years ago. 3d mario and smash have sold similar, and  mario odyssey took to a new level that should clear to anyone looking at sales.

As for hype based on youtube views  mario odyssey is crushing it, as it should its a much fresher concept, compared to smash, which looks like a iterative sequel. 

I’m surprised you decided that Ultimate is now an iterative sequel instead of a port. Guess this will bold well for Ultimate. People give Splatoon 2 a lot of crap for being “just” an iterative sequel, and now it’s aiming to more than comfortably outsell it’s predecessor. Heck, games like Uncharted 2 and 3, Mass Effect 2 and 3, Majoras Mask, and Batman Arkham City found great success as “iterative sequels.”

And that’s going by Ultimate’s main focus (at E3, at least) to show that every Smash character, past and present, are all together. We haven’t even seen all the modes yet.



Kai_Mao said:

N

quickrick said:

 mario galaxy 12.77 million vs 13.27 smash they nearly sold the same, but thats Ltd on wii which had a huge user base. mario odyssey is already near those sales in 5 months, it's probably at 11-12 million shipped now it will get to 18-20 million ltd, how is  that in the same league? besides we are going way too far back, i rather judge the last entry, not something from 11 years years ago. 3d mario and smash have sold similar, and  mario odyssey took to a new level that should clear to anyone looking at sales.

As for hype based on youtube views  mario odyssey is crushing it, as it should its a much fresher concept, compared to smash, which looks like a iterative sequel. 

I’m surprised you decided that Ultimate is now an iterative sequel instead of a port. Guess this will bold well for Ultimate. People give Splatoon 2 a lot of crap for being “just” an iterative sequel, and now it’s aiming to more than comfortably outsell it’s predecessor. Heck, games like Uncharted 2 and 3, Mass Effect 2 and 3, Majoras Mask, and Batman Arkham City found great success as “iterative sequels.”

And that’s going by Ultimate’s main focus (at E3, at least) to show that every Smash character, past and present, are all together. We haven’t even seen all the modes yet.

ultimately nintendo decides if they want it to be a sequel or not, it could very well have been just a ultimate version of smash 4 but it's nintendo choice. as for iterative sequels,batman has me scratching my head, the  sequel is anything but iterative, it's open world, and the gameplay is totally different.