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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

Baddman on 21 June 2018

lol a lot of ppl are seriously underestimating how successful pokemon lets go will be



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zorg1000 on 21 June 2018

Also you say it did 13.7m from Jan-April, thats 3.4m each month.
Now if we assume that remians steady from May-Oct, thats 34m.
Now lets round that up to 40m to include digital sales, (just under 20%)
This site has Nov+Dec making up ~52% of last years sales.
Lets assume its a little higher this year since it has bigger games in Nov/Dec (~55%)
That would put sales around ~90m for the year which would be right in line for a 100m FY shipment.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 21 June 2018
Megiddo said:

I mean, I don't know what software was launched on the Wii in 2011 in May nor do I care to find out. The reason I said "Wii was well past its sharp decline I believe" was in relation to the Switch's May software. I never even mentioned whether or not the Wii in 2011 reached 100 million software, you did.

My argument is based on data. Smash and Pokemon could very well sell 30 million units this fiscal year but what else is there to sell the rest? Mario Kart, BOTW, Splatoon 2, and Odyssey combined for over 30 million units last fiscal year and yet software was no even anywhere close to 100 million.

If you want to have a data-derived argument, then show me your thinking into exactly how Nintendo will reach 100 million software this fiscal year with the lineup they have announced. You've given me Smash and Pokemon for 30 million. You've got 70 million left.

You keep saying your argument is based on data but what data? You have shown none and like my last post showed, your 13.7m in 4 months actually goes against your argument.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Megiddo on 21 June 2018
zorg1000 said:
Also you say it did 13.7m from Jan-April, thats 3.4m each month.
Now if we assume that remians steady from May-Oct, thats 34m.
Now lets round that up to 40m to include digital sales, (just under 20%)
This site has Nov+Dec making up ~52% of last years sales.
Lets assume its a little higher this year since it has bigger games in Nov/Dec (~55%)
That would put sales around ~90m for the year which would be right in line for a 100m FY shipment.

Alright then. My personal opinion is that software was so heavily loaded in Nov+Dec last year because that's finally when Nintendo fixed their stock issues, but if you think that will be a regular thing then I will concede your scenario as plausible for this calendar year. Now that I know your mindset and you know mine we'll just have to see how it all ends up in the end and see if Nintendo hits their target this fiscal year.



bubblegamer on 21 June 2018

Not happening. Nintendo overestimates most of their projections anyways so it's not that surprising to me. Besides Switch is not selling that well and it would have to sell 30 to 40% more than the almighty PS4 to make it. So nope.



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zorg1000 on 21 June 2018
Megiddo said:
zorg1000 said:
Also you say it did 13.7m from Jan-April, thats 3.4m each month.
Now if we assume that remians steady from May-Oct, thats 34m.
Now lets round that up to 40m to include digital sales, (just under 20%)
This site has Nov+Dec making up ~52% of last years sales.
Lets assume its a little higher this year since it has bigger games in Nov/Dec (~55%)
That would put sales around ~90m for the year which would be right in line for a 100m FY shipment.

Alright then. My personal opinion is that software was so heavily loaded in Nov+Dec last year because that's finally when Nintendo fixed their stock issues, but if you think that will be a regular thing then I will concede your scenario as plausible for this calendar year. Now that I know your mindset and you know mine we'll just have to see how it all ends up in the end and see if Nintendo hits their target this fiscal year.

But it wasn't heavily loaded, its not uncommon for the holidays to make up ~50% of Nintendo's yearly hardware/software sales.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 21 June 2018
bubblegamer said:
Not happening. Nintendo overestimates most of their projections anyways

Yep, thats totally why they surpassed last years projection despite raising the forcast twice.......



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

bubblegamer on 21 June 2018
zorg1000 said:
bubblegamer said:
Not happening. Nintendo overestimates most of their projections anyways

Yep, thats totally why they surpassed last years projection despite raising the forcast twice.......

Ah so you agree that "most" does not mean always? Nice to know.



Miyamotoo on 21 June 2018
Megiddo said:

You think that the Switch will not have a problem reaching 100 million software sales because 1.4% of that goal was sold in the Switch's strongest region in May? It's not like the Wii U was some sort of console sales machine and 2011 was 5 years into the Wii which is well past its sharp decline I believe.

You dont know about how much percent we talking about, remember this 90% increase without digital sales. For the record, Switch sold 8.15m software units in hole Q1 of last year with games like Zelda BotW and MK8D released in March and April, and in 13 moths sold 69m software. With much higher install base and much more games releasing, it will not have problem reaching 100m.

Megiddo said:

Games with digital only sales are not included in the 100 million goal. And if you have better software numbers I'd love to see them as I agree VGchartz is not reliable. Did Nintendo announce total software sold last quarter during their fiscal report?

Yes it did, 16.4m for January-March period.

Megiddo said:

I mean, I don't know what software was launched on the Wii in 2011 in May nor do I care to find out. The reason I said "Wii was well past its sharp decline I believe" was in relation to the Switch's May software. I never even mentioned whether or not the Wii in 2011 reached 100 million software, you did.

My argument is based on data. Smash and Pokemon could very well sell 30 million units this fiscal year but what else is there to sell the rest? Mario Kart, BOTW, Splatoon 2, and Odyssey combined for over 30 million units last fiscal year and yet software was no even anywhere close to 100 million.

If you want to have a data-derived argument, then show me your thinking into exactly how Nintendo will reach 100 million software this fiscal year with the lineup they have announced. You've given me Smash and Pokemon for 30 million. You've got 70 million left.

Tell us what exactly software give boost of 90% now in May in US compared to last year without digital sales?

From some reason you dont count higher install base, large numbers of games and increasing attach rate with every month. Fact is that Switch games are selling great and that's without new heavy hitters.

 

bubblegamer said:
Not happening. Nintendo overestimates most of their projections anyways so it's not that surprising to me. Besides Switch is not selling that well and it would have to sell 30 to 40% more than the almighty PS4 to make it. So nope.

Actually with Switch they underestimated every their projection until now, and then increased projection almost every quarter. Switch is selling very well (on pair with second PS4 year in US) and I really don't see why Switch needs to sell more than PS4 currently to meet their goal.



quickrick on 21 June 2018
bubblegamer said:
zorg1000 said:

Yep, thats totally why they surpassed last years projection despite raising the forcast twice.......

Ah so you agree that "most" does not mean always? Nice to know.

Yea people don't remember with the wiiu nintendo kept there forcast of 10 million for 2 years, even though they didn't have a chance in hell of doing it.