Are you sure this wasn't because of a longer demo time? Smash had 2:30 Free-For-Alls with Items on, so that's about three and a half minutes counting loading times and character and stage picks. And that's split between two people, so the line length is halved. Three and a half minutes would get you next to nowhere in Pokémon.

I'm hesitant about using line length and wait time as a predictor for popularity since StarFox Zero turned out the same way with its lines.

I'm not sure. Think they need a bit more umph. The Pokemon game will be divisive and I'm not sure it will capture the traditional market like they hope it would.

They are gonna use the nostalgia card big time for the Let's Go marketing and we all should probably remember how power that card can be.

These next few months will be a little slower with the lack of 1st Party titles in July, August, and September. Although, July does have an exclusive title with Octopath Traveler. But once October hits is when I think it will begin to pick up considerably.

I think Super Mario Party will do better numbers than most people will expect. Don't glance over this one, fellas. It's a return to the classic styled formula on the N64 and GameCube, something we haven't gotten since Mario Party 8, a game that came out over a decade ago and something fans have wanted ever since then. No more stupid cars or anything like that, it's the good-old, original Mario Party everyone knows and... loves???
This game is going to do big numbers with both the kids who want a good Mario game to play together and adults who grew up with the originals, and the fact that it's on the Switch and can be played anywhere. Granted, not as numbers at nearly the same level as Pokemon or Smash Bros., but I think it's going to have the best launch out of any Mario Party game to date and eventually become the best selling game in the series.

So, the three-way combo of Super Mario Party, Pokemon LGP/E, and Smash Bros. Ultimate, supported by all the 3rd party games coming out between now and the rest of the year should be enough to help Nintendo reach that 20 million goal.

I suspect they will review these 20M estimates a bit below that figure

With Yokai Watch, Super Paper Mario, Pokemon and Smash Bros, Japan will probably be on fire in any case.

From same reason why Switch is selling until now, Switch is selling on concept, games and marketing, nothing changed and nothing will change.

Switch has totally different concept, appealing, marketing, brend, support...than Wii U had, comparing them is pointles, from all those points Switch  much more similar to Wii than to Wii U.

Where from lower hardware sales coming from? Switch is selling on pair with last year period even without big games.

Hardly, Nintendo always gave us shipped numbers, from NES until Switch we always had shipped numbers.

Some of you point could said for last year also but Switch had one of best 1st year ever, and Switch continue to sell on pair with last year despite didnt had big game until now this year. Offcourse they confident in long seller when they keep up selling great like we saw last quarter, last year we also didnt had 2018. roadmap, maybe you want accept Pokemon Lets Go but there will new people that didnt accept core Pokemon.

I think it will need one or two extra Nintendo games to launch it over that number.

I think the biggest issue will not be what switch offers but what it doesn't.

The list of games not releasing on the switch is not only huge but it also has some big titles like Red dead that will make some people not getting a switch.

No, momentum is slowing, and Zelda and Mario are the premier flagship IPs Pokemon and Smash are great games but lack the mass appeal of the other two, I hope they make it, but I have my doubts.