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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

curl-6 on 15 June 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said:
curl-6 said:

Mario Party is not a system seller. It doesn't push large numbers of new consumers to buy a Switch, because it appeals to the same audience the Switch already caters to.

By that logic, God of War wouldn't have pushed sales one bit. Or Bloodborne, since there was a Dark Souls already. Or any annual sports title Or Far Cry 5. Or CoD or Battlefield. But everytime one of those games get released sales jump up. Why? Because audiences overlap and aren't necessary the same as one could think at first glance.

Mario Party will push sales much more than you think it will.

People are not going to buy a $300 system to play a Mario Party game, not in significant numbers. It's simply not the kind of game that makes consumers say "wow, I didn't want to buy a Switch before, but now that it has the 17th entry in a party game series, take my hard earned cash!"



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aikohualda on 15 June 2018
Azelover said:
I doubt they will as it is. At least one more big game is necessary IMO.

Which month wiill be they expect the 20 mil mark for next year?

 

Yeah i doubt it too.. maybe if it was pokemon 8th gen... then it will be more possible... even if it is they have to sell millions of switch for the holiday since technically they have to sell more than 350k a week... that will be a lot of catch up to do on the holiday and golden week in japan... maybe a pikmin like power for early 2019? Or better a new monster hunter in japan for early 2019



 

zorg1000 on 15 June 2018
curl-6 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

By that logic, God of War wouldn't have pushed sales one bit. Or Bloodborne, since there was a Dark Souls already. Or any annual sports title Or Far Cry 5. Or CoD or Battlefield. But everytime one of those games get released sales jump up. Why? Because audiences overlap and aren't necessary the same as one could think at first glance.

Mario Party will push sales much more than you think it will.

People are not going to buy a $300 system to play a Mario Party game, not in significant numbers. It's simply not the kind of game that makes consumers say "wow, I didn't want to buy a Switch before, but now that it has the 17th entry in a party game series, take my hard earned cash!"

Will Mario Party sell a significant number of Switches on its own? Probably not.

Can it help make the overall library more appealing for someone on the fence about getting Switch? Sure.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

curl-6 on 15 June 2018
zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

People are not going to buy a $300 system to play a Mario Party game, not in significant numbers. It's simply not the kind of game that makes consumers say "wow, I didn't want to buy a Switch before, but now that it has the 17th entry in a party game series, take my hard earned cash!"

Will Mario Party sell a significant number of Switches on its own? Probably not.

Can it help make the overall library more appealing for someone on the fence about getting Switch? Sure.

I just feel like Switch could really have used a big system seller in the June-October window; Smash arriving in Sept/Oct or something like Animal Crossing in the same period would've kept sales flying high. As things are, I'm not saying it's going to fall off a cliff or anything, but it'll kinda be left idling for a long stretch.



zorg1000 on 15 June 2018
curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

Will Mario Party sell a significant number of Switches on its own? Probably not.

Can it help make the overall library more appealing for someone on the fence about getting Switch? Sure.

I just feel like Switch could really have used a big system seller in the June-October window; Smash arriving in Sept/Oct or something like Animal Crossing in the same period would've kept sales flying high. As things are, I'm not saying it's going to fall off a cliff or anything, but it'll kinda be left idling for a long stretch.

Ya it lacks any mega sellers but i think it has a nice lineup of mid sized titles in that timeframe.

Fortnite, Paladins, Mario Tennis, Wolfenstein, Crash Bandicoot, Ys, Captain Toad, Octopath Traveler, Shining Resonance, Okami, Monster Hunter, FIFA, NBA, Dark Souls, Just Dance, Starlink, Mega Man, Mario Party, along with a whole bunch of indies.

They dont have any big individual system sellers but they should be able to maintain momentum by offering a wide variety of mid-size titles.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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curl-6 on 15 June 2018
zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

I just feel like Switch could really have used a big system seller in the June-October window; Smash arriving in Sept/Oct or something like Animal Crossing in the same period would've kept sales flying high. As things are, I'm not saying it's going to fall off a cliff or anything, but it'll kinda be left idling for a long stretch.

Ya it lacks any mega sellers but i think it has a nice lineup of mid sized titles in that timeframe.

Fortnite, Paladins, Mario Tennis, Wolfenstein, Crash Bandicoot, Ys, Captain Toad, Octopath Traveler, Shining Resonance, Okami, Monster Hunter, FIFA, NBA, Dark Souls, Just Dance, Starlink, Mega Man, Mario Party, along with a whole bunch of indies.

They dont have any big individual system sellers but they should be able to maintain momentum by offering a wide variety of mid-size titles.

I just don't think games like that can really fill in for real killer apps like Smash/Pokemon/Splatoon/Animal Crossing/Odyssey/BOTW/etc. Ideally, I think spacing such heavy hitters about every 3 months like last year is the best approach.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 15 June 2018

zorg1000 on 16 June 2018
curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

Ya it lacks any mega sellers but i think it has a nice lineup of mid sized titles in that timeframe.

Fortnite, Paladins, Mario Tennis, Wolfenstein, Crash Bandicoot, Ys, Captain Toad, Octopath Traveler, Shining Resonance, Okami, Monster Hunter, FIFA, NBA, Dark Souls, Just Dance, Starlink, Mega Man, Mario Party, along with a whole bunch of indies.

They dont have any big individual system sellers but they should be able to maintain momentum by offering a wide variety of mid-size titles.

I just don't think games like that can really fill in for real killer apps like Smash/Pokemon/Splatoon/Animal Crossing/Odyssey/BOTW/etc. Ideally, I think spacing such heavy hitters about every 3 months like last year is the best approach.

Idk last year had a huge title each quarter while this year has a much steadier flow of small-medium sized titles. For example.

 

May 2017-Disgaea 5, Minecraft, Street Fighter II

June 2017-ARMS

July 2017-Splatoon 2

 

VS.

May 2018-Tropical Freeze, Hyrule Warriors, Little Nightmares, Street Fighter Collection, Mega Man Collection 1+2, Battle Chasers: Nightwar

June 2018-Sushi Striker, Fortnite, Paladins, Fallout Shelter, Mario Tennis, Crash Bandicoot, Wolfenstein 

July 2018-Shining Resonance, Captain Toad, Octopath Traveler, Code of Princess, Mega Man X Collection



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

curl-6 on 16 June 2018
zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

I just don't think games like that can really fill in for real killer apps like Smash/Pokemon/Splatoon/Animal Crossing/Odyssey/BOTW/etc. Ideally, I think spacing such heavy hitters about every 3 months like last year is the best approach.

Idk last year had a huge title each quarter while this year has a much steadier flow of small-medium sized titles. For example.

 

May 2017-Disgaea 5, Minecraft, Street Fighter II

June 2017-ARMS

July 2017-Splatoon 2

 

VS.

May 2018-Tropical Freeze, Hyrule Warriors, Little Nightmares, Street Fighter Collection, Mega Man Collection 1+2, Battle Chasers: Nightwar

June 2018-Sushi Striker, Fortnite, Paladins, Fallout Shelter, Mario Tennis, Crash Bandicoot, Wolfenstein 

July 2018-Shining Resonance, Captain Toad, Octopath Traveler, Code of Princess, Mega Man X Collection

Thing is though that Splatoon 2 alone has more system selling power than all those games put together, plus in May of last year Switch was still on a roll from BOTW.



Spindel on 16 June 2018

Until a while ago I would have said yes.

Now I sa NO, because the president of USA just started a trade war which will drive US sales off a cliff because of increased prices.



MasterThief on 16 June 2018

I think they will ship 18 million. unless they pricecut 

but maybe I am underestimating pokemon. I feel like most smash bros fans already own a switch