I would say yes - mostly due to Pokemon.

Smash and Pokemon..... 20 million for sure.

curl-6 said: Miyamotoo said: Yes but in that time there were huge stock problems for Switch and Switch could sell more last year in that time period, that why Nintendo shiped 2m units last year for that time period, while in January-March period of this year shipped almost 3m, so in this years April-June period Nintendo will easily ship at least 2.5m and probably around 3m (so higher than in same time period of last year). So beacuse stock problems of alst year, Switch can easily and probably will have stronger sales for April-September period compared to last year, and offourse October-December period of this year will definatly be stronger with Pokemon+Smash+Mario Party than it was last year. Except last year Switch had system selling software in July and October, while this year it has nothing with system selling power until November.

I think you might get surprised by some of the games here, especially Octopath Traveller and Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate

Also, ports matter for the Switch. I know a couple guys who rebought some games on the Switch simply because you can play them on the go and everywhere you are

Nope, it will sell around 16 million IMO.

curl-6 said: Miyamotoo said: Again, despite it had system seller software game in July, Switch had stock issues, so didnt had max effect, Switch last year in July-September period sold similar (around 3m) like it did January-March period of this year, and thats despite Switch had very weak lineup in January-March period while in July-September of last year had system seller game and stronger lineup. Talking about October, one month dont change relly nothing, yeah Switch had huge game last October, but this huge games in November and December (Smash Bros will definatly effect on sale in January too) and actualy mid tier game in October with Super Mario Party (its perfect holiday game), Pokemon+Smash+Mario Party means much stronger Q4 that it was last year. No to mentione that Switch this year can have bundles with one game for same price point, some other deals or even price cut. Mario Party is not a system seller. It doesn't push large numbers of new consumers to buy a Switch, because it appeals to the same audience the Switch already caters to.

By that logic, God of War wouldn't have pushed sales one bit. Or Bloodborne, since there was a Dark Souls already. Or any annual sports title Or Far Cry 5. Or CoD or Battlefield. But everytime one of those games get released sales jump up. Why? Because audiences overlap and aren't necessary the same as one could think at first glance.

Mario Party will push sales much more than you think it will.

i think they can do it. i expect another title to go out in september that will be announced in august. there's no way that they start switch online without a solid multiplayer title to go with it. then probably another big title in february or so.

Then, i think it would be a very good idea to bring to the rest of the world the switch alone sku (without dock and cables) that would be a huge push for families who share a single tv, but want to have several switchs (one per person instead of one per household). Mario party seems to have a lot of interresting interraction with multiple switchs (especially if you dont require a full game cartridge on both system to play but that's unlikely)

Reassessing since my first post in this thread, I say there's a sub-moderate chance that Nintendo could fall short of 20 million shipped. I don't think we'll see any region of error greater than 1.5 million units +/-, meaning 18.5 to 21.5 million shipped by end of FY. Nintendo has great momentum in their stock value right now and upsetting shareholders because of missed projections is (obviously) incredibly unfavorable. If 20 million is missed, I doubt Nintendo would let it slip too far. On the other end, they may not have to do too much for 20 million to be in reach; simple bundles and price cuts for the holidays could skyrocket their numbers if they start to lag.

I still say yes, with a slight side-order of "ehh..."

curl-6 said: Miyamotoo said: It want in significant numbers like Pokemon or Smash will, but definitely will push some Switch units during holiday season. Super Mario Party will definitely be far more popular and appealing compared to 1-2 Switch, its much stronger IP and it looks it will be quite good for Mario Party game and better game than 1-2 Switch in any case. Oh it's definitely going to better than 1-2 Switch. Lemon juice on a paper cut is better than 1-2 Switch. Getting herpes from a toilet seat is better than 1-2 Switch.

I do hope that mario party will drive 1-2 switch of the top 50 chartz. i cannot imagine why people would buy that instead of mario party

Marach said: i think they can do it. i expect another title to go out in september that will be announced in august. there's no way that they start switch online without a solid multiplayer title to go with it. then probably another big title in february or so. Then, i think it would be a very good idea to bring to the rest of the world the switch alone sku (without dock and cables) that would be a huge push for families who share a single tv, but want to have several switchs (one per person instead of one per household). Mario party seems to have a lot of interresting interraction with multiple switchs (especially if you dont require a full game cartridge on both system to play but that's unlikely)

Why is there no way they'd release Switch online without a game directly alongside? It's not it like it really makes that much of a difference either way. Regardless it seems that's exactly their plan. They have tons of online games releasing around September that they could have easily paired Switch online with but aren't.

I believe Nintendo said they will not be giving a dockless option to the west for some dumb reason.

Lonely_Dolphin said: Marach said: i think they can do it. i expect another title to go out in september that will be announced in august. there's no way that they start switch online without a solid multiplayer title to go with it. then probably another big title in february or so. Then, i think it would be a very good idea to bring to the rest of the world the switch alone sku (without dock and cables) that would be a huge push for families who share a single tv, but want to have several switchs (one per person instead of one per household). Mario party seems to have a lot of interresting interraction with multiple switchs (especially if you dont require a full game cartridge on both system to play but that's unlikely) Why is there no way they'd release Switch online without a game directly alongside? It's not it like it really makes that much of a difference either way. Regardless it seems that's exactly their plan. They have tons of online games releasing around September that they could have easily paired Switch online with but aren't. I believe Nintendo said they will not be giving a dockless option to the west for some dumb reason.

Nintendo needs at least one direct where the online is adressed so they would have a chance to announce something. Maybe a remaster of kind. Mariomaker remaster/sequel?

Reggie said they still had news for 2018. But you may be right. Nintendo moves in their own way one way or the other .