Agree with you 100% on the bolded, Mario kart 8 deluxe, and splatoon in japan were pretty huge as well.

We'll have a better idea when April to June shipments are revealed. Right now I suspect it's going to be close - the lowest I can see for the FY is 18 million shipped, but I could see it hitting 22 million if things do go well. I don't doubt the system-selling power of Smash and Pokemon. Similarly, I suspect those two games could well account for at least 25% of Switch's predicted software sales (~25 million units), but it's difficult to know if that 100 million software target is achievable without more numbers. The current quarter has had no meaningful software launch outside of Fortnite, a free game which will have been downloaded by the existing userbase. Labo has had a negligible effect and will need a re-launch later this year if Nintendo want it to drive hardware sales.

That being said, Switch enjoys a certain amount of momentum and has four big sales drivers in Mario Kart 8 DX, Zelda, Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey. In the UK, one of Nintendo's weaker European markets, two or three of those titles have been in and out of the top 10 over the last 6 months, suggesting a decent level of baseline hardware sales in a competitive market. The big questions are - how well does that baseline hold up? Have the Big Four continued to drive hardware sales as they did in the previous quarter? Is the varied software line-up and mixture of ports, small titles and third-party releases enough to keep the base-line relatively strong? How well will the two Mario titles sell? How much of a boost will Switch receive in October, and will Ubisoft's big October games (Star Link and Just Dance) be a sales driver for Switch? Do Nintendo have any major launches planned for Q4 of their FY?

It's quite clear Nintendo have banked on a combination of evergreen sales strength, momentum, a varied software line-up and a massive second-half to their FY in order to hit those targets. Personally, if Nintendo are going to hit 20 million, I think they're going to need Tennis: Aces to perform more strongly than Mario sports titles (outside of the Olympics games) usually do - this needs to land in the 3-5 million range for the financial year, rather than the 2-3 million range. Similarly, I think the combination of Super Mario Party, Just Dance and Star Link has the potential to drive hardware sales in October if they receive good marketing - based on the Star Fox inclusion in Star Link, Nintendo see that as a potential hit on Switch. Pokemon has the advantage of launching before Black Friday, and whereas Smash is launching very late in the year, you can expect it to drive sales through Q4 of the FY. Nintendo have further advantages late in the year - stock should be plentiful and they should be in good enough financial shape to bring in some Black Friday deals as well as strong bundles to help boost sales.

Like I said, this will be close. Whereas Smash and Pokemon are the primary drivers towards that 20 million figure, there are a number of other (less predictable) factors that could really help Nintendo hit or even exceed the target - Black Friday deals, competitive bundles, a successful reboot/re-launch for Labo later this year, a summer boost from Mario Tennis, strong October sales driven by Mario Party, Just Dance and Star Link. While Pokemon and Smash are the major play, I think Nintendo need some of the other factors I've just listed if they're going to hit the target.

Yes but in that time there were huge stock problems for Switch and Switch could sell more last year in that time period, that why Nintendo shiped 2m units last year for that time period, while in January-March period of this year shipped almost 3m, so in this years April-June period Nintendo will easily ship at least 2.5m and probably around 3m (so higher than in same time period of last year). So beacuse stock problems of alst year, Switch can easily and probably will have stronger sales for April-September period compared to last year, and offourse October-December period of this year will definatly be stronger with Pokemon+Smash+Mario Party than it was last year.

Except last year Switch had system selling software in July and October, while this year it has nothing with system selling power until November.

Even then, isn't the Switch still up WW so far? That would imply that the Switch can sell itself, and that it doesn't always need a new title

Again, despite it had system seller software game in July, Switch had stock issues, so didnt had max effect, Switch last year in July-September period sold similar (around 3m) like it did January-March period of this year, and thats despite Switch had very weak lineup in January-March period while in July-September of last year had system seller game and stronger lineup. Talking about October, one month dont change relly nothing, yeah Switch had huge game last October, but this huge games in November and December (Smash Bros will definatly effect on sale in January too) and actualy mid tier game in October with Super Mario Party (its perfect holiday game), Pokemon+Smash+Mario Party means much stronger Q4 that it was last year. No to mentione that Switch this year can have bundles with one game for same price point, some other deals or even price cut.

It's possible, they had enough time to observe sales at launch, during Xmas and after to plan production in the short and mid term, so they can build them and do what's needed to sell them, the only possible obstacle could be if their calculations and predictions tell them that the right time to ramp up production would be later, and a significant factor to delay it could be that despite excellent sales, current RAM price situation keeps costs too high in the short term (in the mid and long term RAM tech used in Switch will become uninteresting for cryptominers, so its cost should drop).

Mario Party is not a system seller. It doesn't push large numbers of new consumers to buy a Switch, because it appeals to the same audience the Switch already caters to.

Mario party isnt gonna push. It might push some families over but no noticeable difference in Sales will be had because of Mario Party. I still think they can do it but it all depends on the holiday season. If the Switch has massive stock and enough interest because of Smash im pretty sure they will reach it.

Its not compared to Pokemon, 3D Mario, Smash....but its definitely mid tier game, and in holiday season definitely can move some Switch units with casuals and families, most of Switch audience are not casuals and families.