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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

ABizzel1 on 03 June 2018

Logically it should be. 2019 should have some amazing games, but PS4 should end 2018 selling just under 20m consoles this year, which means total hardware sells will be over 90m units sold. At that point that console is selling to the $199 and less gamer (which is generally a small market, since $250 is the magic entry price now), and people buying their 2nd and 3rd PS4 (which again is generally a small market).

The one thing that might help them stay ahead of Switch in 2019 would be current PS4 owners upgrading to a PS4 Pro, in anticipation of a PS5 in 2020 / 2021, just to have something to hold them over til then.



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Teeqoz on 03 June 2018

I'm fairly confident last year was the last year the PS4 would sell more than the Switch.



Barkley on 03 June 2018
Teeqoz said:
I'm fairly confident last year was the last year the PS4 would sell more than the Switch.

VGC already has PS4 up by 1.5m for 2018, I do think Switch has a good shot at selling more this holiday than the PS4 but not by enough to recover the ground.

PS4 is going to keep slowly extending that 1.5m lead by winning the majority of weeks until Pokemon or Smash comes out.

 



LethalP on 03 June 2018
Teeqoz said:
I'm fairly confident last year was the last year the PS4 would sell more than the Switch.

What NPD's do you expect Switch to win going forward?



zorg1000 on 03 June 2018
quickrick said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Well Switch did dominate in December. Sales were weak in November because no Black Friday deals at all. But that was the launch year and they had supply issues until shortly before the holiday season so it was clear that they wouldn't have a promotion for black Friday back then. This year however there's not much of a reason not to have at least a small promotion for Black Friday, so both months should rock the house this year. 

except it didn't. it sold 10% more then the xbone, thats not domination, with ps4 having a weak December because xbone was 100$ cheaper till december 17.

It seems like you are changing goalposts, your discussion has never been exclusively about US or included XBO, but ill play along....

NSW outsold XBO by about 10% in the US but in Japan it sold 200x more than XBO. It also sold much better in countries such as France, Germany, Italy, Spain, S. Korea.

Overall NSW sold about 100% more than XBO globally in December (4.1m vs 2.05m).



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Gammalad on 03 June 2018

As we hear more talks of the PS5 I am sure their numbers will start to decline, so inevitably the Switch will outsell the PS4 YoY



"I think it will be the HDS"-Me in regards to Nintendo's next handheld.

zorg1000 on 03 June 2018
LethalP said:
Teeqoz said:
I'm fairly confident last year was the last year the PS4 would sell more than the Switch.

What NPD's do you expect Switch to win going forward?

Maybe a couple of the summer months like July or August, if Smash releases in Sept like many are speculating than Sept, Nov with Pokemon and possibly its first BF bundles/deals, Dec seems likely as well.

I dont think 5 of the remaining 8 months is unlikely.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Teeqoz on 03 June 2018
Barkley said:
Teeqoz said:
I'm fairly confident last year was the last year the PS4 would sell more than the Switch.

VGC already has PS4 up by 1.5m for 2018, I do think Switch has a good shot at selling more this holiday than the PS4 but not by enough to recover the ground.

PS4 is going to keep slowly extending that 1.5m lead by winning the majority of weeks until Pokemon or Smash comes out.

How much faith do you have in VGC's tracking? Shipments has the Switch at 2.92 million for Q1, the PS4 at 2.5 million.

 

LethalP said:
Teeqoz said:
I'm fairly confident last year was the last year the PS4 would sell more than the Switch.

What NPD's do you expect Switch to win going forward?

Well, NPD is only the US, while I presume this thread is for global numbers, but the Switch will probably win december, and I guess a few other months. A win in december can easily erase several months worth of PS4 wins in the spring and summer. Aside from that, the Switch will sell at least 1.5 million more than the PS4 in Japan this year.



LethalP on 03 June 2018
zorg1000 said:
LethalP said:

What NPD's do you expect Switch to win going forward?

Maybe a couple of the summer months like July or August, if Smash releases in Sept like many are speculating than Sept, Nov with Pokemon and possibly its first BF bundles/deals, Dec seems likely as well.

I dont think 5 of the remaining 8 months is unlikely.

Will it win any of those Summer months worldwide?

What will be the sales difference between the PS4 and Switch by September? It's currently 1.5 million, will that grow or not?



LethalP on 03 June 2018
Teeqoz said:

How much faith do you have in VGC's tracking? Shipments has the Switch at 2.92 million for Q1, the PS4 at 2.5 million.

 

LethalP said:

What NPD's do you expect Switch to win going forward?

Well, NPD is only the US, while I presume this thread is for global numbers, but the Switch will probably win december, and I guess a few other months. A win in december can easily erase several months worth of PS4 wins in the spring and summer. Aside from that, the Switch will sell at least 1.5 million more than the PS4 in Japan this year.

My point is, the current gap is 1.5 million in PS4's favor. Will that grow significantly up until the holidays? Or do you expect Switch to close that gap in the mid year? As in, by the start of September, what will the gap be? Just a wild guess?