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Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

Forums - Sales Discussion - Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

0D0 said: 

I used to think that Nintendo was in a drought, but the thing is, most games Nintendo released this year were strong titles for all the people out there that haven't picked up Wii U. I'd say that Nintendo has a high quality line up this year and yet they couldn't stop PS4 in its, let's say, beginning of final stage.


The thing is, Nintendo will have already released most of its big franchises before 2020 (Pokemon, Smash, Zelda, Mario, MK). Furthermore, Nintendo usually has its peak early in console cycle. After that, Nintendo is quite hopeless. Although Switch is a handheld console and handhelds have always done very well, I don't believe Nintendo will grow more in the second half of 2019/first half of 2020 than it's growing this year.

Switch this year still didnt had strong titles, games like Bayonetta, Kirby, DKTF, Hyrule Warriors and Labo are mediocre in strenght and line up until April definitely wasn't strong (but it getting stronger from May), MHW and GoW that PS4 recived until now are actualy strong system seller games and far more stronger games than Switch games I mentioned, so its not rely strange that Switch didnt sell better than PS4 until now. But in second half of year and and especially in Q4 situation could be quite different, Switch yet need to start receiving really strong games this year, Smash Bros + Pokemon combination in Q4 will be killer combination, and there will be some other games like Fire Emblem or Fortnite.

Switch is not typical Nintendo console, Nintendo will keep releasing quality titles, 1st party, 2nd party, 3rd party and 2nd/3rd party exclusives, in 2020. and with every new bigger or quality release Switch is becoming more attractive console. Also its not just point about games only, Switch will have bundles, deals, price cuts (Switch will espacily selling great when it gets handheld price point around $200 because for plenty of handheld lowers current price point of Switch is too high, also later with revisions and lower price point plenty of people will start buying 2nd Switch), revisions...that will also effect on sales and Switch will contine to sell great even in 2020. and later. So saying that Nintendo after 2019. is hopeless dont make sense.



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Kyuu said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Right now it is weak.  In a couple of years it will be extremely good.

Switch's third party support will, at best, be decent. In 2-3 years, PS5 will be launched. A while prior to that, Sony will be distributing PS5 dev kits. Do I really have to explain what that means to the Switch? A system that cant even run fairly demanding PS4/X1 games?

Nintendo handhelds always have excellent third party support.  Since the Switch is a big leap in power compared to the 3DS, the third party games this time around are going to be extremely impressive on the Switch.

As for PS5, I am glad you mentioned that, because Sony is basically handing the whole market to the Switch with how they are handling the PS5.  If they release in 2020, then Switch has had a full three years head start on the PS5.  On top of that Sony consoles never have any good games for the first couple of years, which means Switch will not have any real serious competition until 2022.  Sony is basically handing all of gen 9 to Nintendo.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Kyuu said:

Switch's third party support will, at best, be decent. In 2-3 years, PS5 will be launched. A while prior to that, Sony will be distributing PS5 dev kits. Do I really have to explain what that means to the Switch? A system that cant even run fairly demanding PS4/X1 games?

Nintendo handhelds always have excellent third party support.  Since the Switch is a big leap in power compared to the 3DS, the third party games this time around are going to be extremely impressive on the Switch.

As for PS5, I am glad you mentioned that, because Sony is basically handing the whole market to the Switch with how they are handling the PS5.  If they release in 2020, then Switch has had a full three years head start on the PS5.  On top of that Sony consoles never have any good games for the first couple of years, which means Switch will not have any real serious competition until 2022.  Sony is basically handing all of gen 9 to Nintendo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHy7s-2UA0k



From what I've seen the Switch was keeping pace in weekly sales with the PS4 for a while and has started to drop away now, outside of Nintendo launching their own big games I don't see a great deal of third party support for the machine so far, at least nothing to write home about. I don't see the switch outselling this year, it's all heavily dependant on Nintendo's lineup of games I suppose and they at least seem to be supporting this far more than the WiiU.



Playstation gaming for 18 years this 2012


The_Liquid_Laser said:
Kyuu said:

Switch's third party support will, at best, be decent. In 2-3 years, PS5 will be launched. A while prior to that, Sony will be distributing PS5 dev kits. Do I really have to explain what that means to the Switch? A system that cant even run fairly demanding PS4/X1 games?

Nintendo handhelds always have excellent third party support.  Since the Switch is a big leap in power compared to the 3DS, the third party games this time around are going to be extremely impressive on the Switch.

As for PS5, I am glad you mentioned that, because Sony is basically handing the whole market to the Switch with how they are handling the PS5.  If they release in 2020, then Switch has had a full three years head start on the PS5.  On top of that Sony consoles never have any good games for the first couple of years, which means Switch will not have any real serious competition until 2022.  Sony is basically handing all of gen 9 to Nintendo.

While I do think Nintendo Switch's third party library will be great in the end, I think it is strange how slow publishers have been to react to the system's success. There should be more gen 7 ports by now at the very least. Also, even if they don't have any games ready to show, there should have been more announcements of support for the platform (especially with how many publishers announced projects and support for PS4/Xbone when the games were nowhere near ready).

I suppose smaller developers have really been benefiting from this developer lag, so I see it as beneficial in some ways in the end.

As for PS5, I am not sure what Sony can do to differentiate the PS5 from the PS4 enough to make it as successful as the PS4. This is the same issue Nintendo had with the DS to 3DS transition, while the predecessor broke records left and right, the successor just did more of the same slightly better and less people bought-in as these things were no longer fresh.

And the PS5 has issues of diminishing returns, not just to the layperson who struggles to see the difference between 720p and 1080p, but budgetary differences, how many developers are going to make games that they can't easily port to all the current systems?
Such games would have to be massive in budget to be of such fidelity that porting would be prohibitive, which each year fewer and fewer publishers can even afford to make such $200m+ budget games, so it really becomes less relevant since it will be such a small amount of games that won't be cross-gen.
Which is really why the Nintendo Switch will continue to get steady support after PS5 and Xbox4 launch (affirming your notion).

Also, it will have a large active install base that will probably still be growing, while PS5 and Xbox4 will be starting from scratch. And, Nintendo Switch has really no other competitor for handheld gaming, so it can take its sweet time as it keeps expanding its library and hardware SKUs.

Maybe Sony or Microsoft end up being innovative in other ways that lead to hardware growth next gen, but there isn't the same pent-up-market-demand to help them this time, like back in the 2011-2013 generation transition (even Ouya happened because of how much was pent-up), so I think it puts that much more pressure on PS5 and Xbox4 having to be something pretty radical that people just resonate with in droves.

I also think $399 is still the hardware MSRP both Sony and Microsoft want to aim for, which pushes the release date back if they are going for a more experimental design.

So yeah, I think Nintendo is in fairly comfortable position with the current trajectory of things as they continue to ramp up hardware and software this year and next year.



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quickrick said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Nintendo handhelds always have excellent third party support.  Since the Switch is a big leap in power compared to the 3DS, the third party games this time around are going to be extremely impressive on the Switch.

As for PS5, I am glad you mentioned that, because Sony is basically handing the whole market to the Switch with how they are handling the PS5.  If they release in 2020, then Switch has had a full three years head start on the PS5.  On top of that Sony consoles never have any good games for the first couple of years, which means Switch will not have any real serious competition until 2022.  Sony is basically handing all of gen 9 to Nintendo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHy7s-2UA0k

Switch's gonna sell over 200 million bro.

By 2021, most third parties will have abandoned X1, PS4, PS5 and PC in favor of its lordship teh Switch. Because magic! That's what the big N is all about.

Sony, MS, and Valve will be begging in tears to bring their stuff over to Switch, as Nintendo kindly and mercifully accepts; forgetting and forgiving the past malice and evils of its old enemies.

Poor mid 2020s PC are about to be held back by a 2014 handheld technology, it sure makes you wonder how the glorious race would react :P



trent44 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Nintendo handhelds always have excellent third party support.  Since the Switch is a big leap in power compared to the 3DS, the third party games this time around are going to be extremely impressive on the Switch.

As for PS5, I am glad you mentioned that, because Sony is basically handing the whole market to the Switch with how they are handling the PS5.  If they release in 2020, then Switch has had a full three years head start on the PS5.  On top of that Sony consoles never have any good games for the first couple of years, which means Switch will not have any real serious competition until 2022.  Sony is basically handing all of gen 9 to Nintendo.

While I do think Nintendo Switch's third party library will be great in the end, I think it is strange how slow publishers have been to react to the system's success. There should be more gen 7 ports by now at the very least. Also, even if they don't have any games ready to show, there should have been more announcements of support for the platform (especially with how many publishers announced projects and support for PS4/Xbone when the games were nowhere near ready).

I suppose smaller developers have really been benefiting from this developer lag, so I see it as beneficial in some ways in the end.

As for PS5, I am not sure what Sony can do to differentiate the PS5 from the PS4 enough to make it as successful as the PS4. This is the same issue Nintendo had with the DS to 3DS transition, while the predecessor broke records left and right, the successor just did more of the same slightly better and less people bought-in as these things were no longer fresh.

And the PS5 has issues of diminishing returns, not just to the layperson who struggles to see the difference between 720p and 1080p, but budgetary differences, how many developers are going to make games that they can't easily port to all the current systems?
Such games would have to be massive in budget to be of such fidelity that porting would be prohibitive, which each year fewer and fewer publishers can even afford to make such $200m+ budget games, so it really becomes less relevant since it will be such a small amount of games that won't be cross-gen.
Which is really why the Nintendo Switch will continue to get steady support after PS5 and Xbox4 launch (affirming your notion).

Also, it will have a large active install base that will probably still be growing, while PS5 and Xbox4 will be starting from scratch. And, Nintendo Switch has really no other competitor for handheld gaming, so it can take its sweet time as it keeps expanding its library and hardware SKUs.

Maybe Sony or Microsoft end up being innovative in other ways that lead to hardware growth next gen, but there isn't the same pent-up-market-demand to help them this time, like back in the 2011-2013 generation transition (even Ouya happened because of how much was pent-up), so I think it puts that much more pressure on PS5 and Xbox4 having to be something pretty radical that people just resonate with in droves.

I also think $399 is still the hardware MSRP both Sony and Microsoft want to aim for, which pushes the release date back if they are going for a more experimental design.

So yeah, I think Nintendo is in fairly comfortable position with the current trajectory of things as they continue to ramp up hardware and software this year and next year.

Referring to bold, there seems to be different trailer/announcement standards for Sony and Nintendo.  Remember most of the launch Switch games we didn't know about until January 2017.  And then at E3 they mostly focused on games coming out during the second half of 2017.  Nintendo holds their cards very close to the chest.  On the other hand Sony announces things years ahead of time.  How long ago was Spider-Man first announced?  I can't remember it was so long ago.  And that is for a game that is actually releasing on track.  Games like The Last Guardian get released many, many years after they are announced.

Third parties seem to follow the standard of the console maker.  Square Enix announced Octopath Traveler about a year ago and it's coming out this July.  Final Fantasy 7 Remake was announced in 2015 and who knows when it's coming out?  In general, games on the Switch get announced shortly before release while PS4 games get announced far, far ahead of time.

As for the PS5, yeah Sony is really screwed on that one.  They need to strike a balance between console price, development costs, and still being powerful enough to look far better than the PS4 and Switch.  They could release in 2019, but then the PS5 will only be slightly better than XBox1X and the gaming media will ridicule them.  Or they could wait all the way until 2020/2021, but then they give Switch a huge 3/4 year head start over them.  Personally I think it is better for them to release early (even this year if possible).  It would be better to get ridiculed and still have a fighting chance against the Switch.  If they wait a long time, they may find most of their customers have permanently floated over to Nintendo.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 06 June 2018

Acting like Sony is screwed for the PS5 is hilarious. They have dominated the generation pretty much from the start. They continue to have an extremely strong first-party studio lineup which continues to produce profitable titles. They abandoned the dwindling handheld market in which they were only losing money.

They've pretty much taken all the right steps and hopefully will have learned a bit of humility after the transition from PS2 to PS3 but history does tend to repeat itself.



Megiddo said:

Acting like Sony is screwed for the PS5 is hilarious. They have dominated the generation pretty much from the start. They continue to have an extremely strong first-party studio lineup which continues to produce profitable titles. They abandoned the dwindling handheld market in which they were only losing money.

They've pretty much taken all the right steps and hopefully will have learned a bit of humility after the transition from PS2 to PS3 but history does tend to repeat itself.

Ya its really silly to think PS5 would be in trouble by releasing 3-4 years after Switch.

We have seen that Switch & PS4 sales are not affected by one another based on the fact Switch had one of the best launch years in history at the same time that PS4 had its peak year.

PS4 and Switch are different enough that they can easily coexist/complement each other and there is no reason to believe a similar situation wont happen with PS5.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Megiddo said:

Acting like Sony is screwed for the PS5 is hilarious. They have dominated the generation pretty much from the start. They continue to have an extremely strong first-party studio lineup which continues to produce profitable titles. They abandoned the dwindling handheld market in which they were only losing money.

They've pretty much taken all the right steps and hopefully will have learned a bit of humility after the transition from PS2 to PS3 but history does tend to repeat itself.

Ya its really silly to think PS5 would be in trouble by releasing 3-4 years after Switch.

We have seen that Switch & PS4 sales are not affected by one another based on the fact Switch had one of the best launch years in history at the same time that PS4 had its peak year.

PS4 and Switch are different enough that they can easily coexist/complement each other and there is no reason to believe a similar situation wont happen with PS5.

I have to agree here as well. It was really silly smh.



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