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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

Acting like Sony is screwed for the PS5 is hilarious. They have dominated the generation pretty much from the start. They continue to have an extremely strong first-party studio lineup which continues to produce profitable titles. They abandoned the dwindling handheld market in which they were only losing money.

They've pretty much taken all the right steps and hopefully will have learned a bit of humility after the transition from PS2 to PS3 but history does tend to repeat itself.



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Megiddo said:

Acting like Sony is screwed for the PS5 is hilarious. They have dominated the generation pretty much from the start. They continue to have an extremely strong first-party studio lineup which continues to produce profitable titles. They abandoned the dwindling handheld market in which they were only losing money.

They've pretty much taken all the right steps and hopefully will have learned a bit of humility after the transition from PS2 to PS3 but history does tend to repeat itself.

Ya its really silly to think PS5 would be in trouble by releasing 3-4 years after Switch.

We have seen that Switch & PS4 sales are not affected by one another based on the fact Switch had one of the best launch years in history at the same time that PS4 had its peak year.

PS4 and Switch are different enough that they can easily coexist/complement each other and there is no reason to believe a similar situation wont happen with PS5.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Megiddo said:

Acting like Sony is screwed for the PS5 is hilarious. They have dominated the generation pretty much from the start. They continue to have an extremely strong first-party studio lineup which continues to produce profitable titles. They abandoned the dwindling handheld market in which they were only losing money.

They've pretty much taken all the right steps and hopefully will have learned a bit of humility after the transition from PS2 to PS3 but history does tend to repeat itself.

Ya its really silly to think PS5 would be in trouble by releasing 3-4 years after Switch.

We have seen that Switch & PS4 sales are not affected by one another based on the fact Switch had one of the best launch years in history at the same time that PS4 had its peak year.

PS4 and Switch are different enough that they can easily coexist/complement each other and there is no reason to believe a similar situation wont happen with PS5.

I have to agree here as well. It was really silly smh.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

The_Liquid_Laser said:
trent44 said:

While I do think Nintendo Switch's third party library will be great in the end, I think it is strange how slow publishers have been to react to the system's success. There should be more gen 7 ports by now at the very least. Also, even if they don't have any games ready to show, there should have been more announcements of support for the platform (especially with how many publishers announced projects and support for PS4/Xbone when the games were nowhere near ready).

I suppose smaller developers have really been benefiting from this developer lag, so I see it as beneficial in some ways in the end.

As for PS5, I am not sure what Sony can do to differentiate the PS5 from the PS4 enough to make it as successful as the PS4. This is the same issue Nintendo had with the DS to 3DS transition, while the predecessor broke records left and right, the successor just did more of the same slightly better and less people bought-in as these things were no longer fresh.

And the PS5 has issues of diminishing returns, not just to the layperson who struggles to see the difference between 720p and 1080p, but budgetary differences, how many developers are going to make games that they can't easily port to all the current systems?
Such games would have to be massive in budget to be of such fidelity that porting would be prohibitive, which each year fewer and fewer publishers can even afford to make such $200m+ budget games, so it really becomes less relevant since it will be such a small amount of games that won't be cross-gen.
Which is really why the Nintendo Switch will continue to get steady support after PS5 and Xbox4 launch (affirming your notion).

Also, it will have a large active install base that will probably still be growing, while PS5 and Xbox4 will be starting from scratch. And, Nintendo Switch has really no other competitor for handheld gaming, so it can take its sweet time as it keeps expanding its library and hardware SKUs.

Maybe Sony or Microsoft end up being innovative in other ways that lead to hardware growth next gen, but there isn't the same pent-up-market-demand to help them this time, like back in the 2011-2013 generation transition (even Ouya happened because of how much was pent-up), so I think it puts that much more pressure on PS5 and Xbox4 having to be something pretty radical that people just resonate with in droves.

I also think $399 is still the hardware MSRP both Sony and Microsoft want to aim for, which pushes the release date back if they are going for a more experimental design.

So yeah, I think Nintendo is in fairly comfortable position with the current trajectory of things as they continue to ramp up hardware and software this year and next year.

Referring to bold, there seems to be different trailer/announcement standards for Sony and Nintendo.  Remember most of the launch Switch games we didn't know about until January 2017.  And then at E3 they mostly focused on games coming out during the second half of 2017.  Nintendo holds their cards very close to the chest.  On the other hand Sony announces things years ahead of time.  How long ago was Spider-Man first announced?  I can't remember it was so long ago.  And that is for a game that is actually releasing on track.  Games like The Last Guardian get released many, many years after they are announced.

Third parties seem to follow the standard of the console maker.  Square Enix announced Octopath Traveler about a year ago and it's coming out this July.  Final Fantasy 7 Remake was announced in 2015 and who knows when it's coming out?  In general, games on the Switch get announced shortly before release while PS4 games get announced far, far ahead of time.

As for the PS5, yeah Sony is really screwed on that one.  They need to strike a balance between console price, development costs, and still being powerful enough to look far better than the PS4 and Switch.
  They could release in 2019, but then the PS5 will only be slightly better than XBox1X and the gaming media will ridicule them.  Or they could wait all the way until 2020/2021, but then they give Switch a huge 3/4 year head start over them.  Personally I think it is better for them to release early (even this year if possible).  It would be better to get ridiculed and still have a fighting chance against the Switch.  If they wait a long time, they may find most of their customers have permanently floated over to Nintendo.

PS4 games already looks far better then switch, and its generation difference imho. ps5 only real competition is ps4/xb1, they need to get those users to buy ps5, which i admit might be a difficult with the amount of games ps4 has, and amazing the graphics are.  switch users are buying switch for nintedo games and portability and you can clearly see that by the games that are selling    



Megiddo said:

Acting like Sony is screwed for the PS5 is hilarious. They have dominated the generation pretty much from the start. They continue to have an extremely strong first-party studio lineup which continues to produce profitable titles. They abandoned the dwindling handheld market in which they were only losing money.

They've pretty much taken all the right steps and hopefully will have learned a bit of humility after the transition from PS2 to PS3 but history does tend to repeat itself.

Every generation is different.  Sony dominated like never before with the PS2, then they totally botched the launch of PS3.  More importantly Microsoft and Nintendo were both tough competition in Generation 7.  The biggest reason Sony did poorly in Generation 7 is that their competition was just better.  Then in Generation 8, both Microsoft and Nintendo totally botched their launches.  The PS4 didn't do anything special with their launch at all, and yet they dominated Generation 8.  

My point is that the competition matters.  Nintendo Switch is serious competition.  If they don't take Nintendo seriously this time, then the PS5 is screwed.


zorg1000 said:
Megiddo said:

Acting like Sony is screwed for the PS5 is hilarious. They have dominated the generation pretty much from the start. They continue to have an extremely strong first-party studio lineup which continues to produce profitable titles. They abandoned the dwindling handheld market in which they were only losing money.

They've pretty much taken all the right steps and hopefully will have learned a bit of humility after the transition from PS2 to PS3 but history does tend to repeat itself.

Ya its really silly to think PS5 would be in trouble by releasing 3-4 years after Switch.

We have seen that Switch & PS4 sales are not affected by one another based on the fact Switch had one of the best launch years in history at the same time that PS4 had its peak year.

PS4 and Switch are different enough that they can easily coexist/complement each other and there is no reason to believe a similar situation wont happen with PS5.

If you don't think Nintendo and Sony are competing then you are in for one hell of a surprise.  The reason both consoles can do well in the same year is because Nintendo is in both the handheld and home console markets simultaneously.  Sony can win the home market and Nintendo can win the handheld market and then both do well the same year.  But if Nintendo wins the home market then Sony is going to get spanked.  

In previous generations, it was considered an advantage to be able to release your console a year or more before the competition.  Now everyone is acting like it doesn't matter at all.  If Sony gives Nintendo a 3-4 year head start, they are seriously screwed.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Megiddo said:

Acting like Sony is screwed for the PS5 is hilarious. They have dominated the generation pretty much from the start. They continue to have an extremely strong first-party studio lineup which continues to produce profitable titles. They abandoned the dwindling handheld market in which they were only losing money.

They've pretty much taken all the right steps and hopefully will have learned a bit of humility after the transition from PS2 to PS3 but history does tend to repeat itself.

Every generation is different.  Sony dominated like never before with the PS2, then they totally botched the launch of PS3.  More importantly Microsoft and Nintendo were both tough competition in Generation 7.  The biggest reason Sony did poorly in Generation 7 is that their competition was just better.  Then in Generation 8, both Microsoft and Nintendo totally botched their launches.  The PS4 didn't do anything special with their launch at all, and yet they dominated Generation 8.  

My point is that the competition matters.  Nintendo Switch is serious competition.  If they don't take Nintendo seriously this time, then the PS5 is screwed.


zorg1000 said:

Ya its really silly to think PS5 would be in trouble by releasing 3-4 years after Switch.

We have seen that Switch & PS4 sales are not affected by one another based on the fact Switch had one of the best launch years in history at the same time that PS4 had its peak year.

PS4 and Switch are different enough that they can easily coexist/complement each other and there is no reason to believe a similar situation wont happen with PS5.

If you don't think Nintendo and Sony are competing then you are in for one hell of a surprise.  The reason both consoles can do well in the same year is because Nintendo is in both the handheld and home console markets simultaneously.  Sony can win the home market and Nintendo can win the handheld market and then both do well the same year.  But if Nintendo wins the home market then Sony is going to get spanked.  

In previous generations, it was considered an advantage to be able to release your console a year or more before the competition.  Now everyone is acting like it doesn't matter at all.  If Sony gives Nintendo a 3-4 year head start, they are seriously screwed.

The Switch isn't selling to the same market as the PS4. The Switch is selling to the Nintendo market, the one they carved out for themselves. The library isn't robust enough to replace the PlayStation, it gets gimped versions of the very odd third party game like FIFA and Doom, but the full vision is realised the PS/Xbox/PC. It's a completely different demographic for Switch.

The industry and public don't view the Switch as an alternative to the PS4 or Xbox One. If they did and it was in the same market it would have directly eaten into the sales of the PS4, but it hasn't. On the contrary the PS4 has had two of it's fastest selling years so far all while the Switch was on the market.

The Switch releasing 3 years prior to PS5 means nothing for the growth of a PlayStation console. If Xbox got a 3 year head start that would be significant, because they sell to the same demographic and those same people who got an Xbox in those 3 years could have bought a PS5 instead. PS and Xbox are the core consumer base, the Switch isn't.

Why don't you know this? Fucks sake, you know what I find strange about gaming? It's the only medium I know of where it's die hard practitioners don't even know how their own industry works.



LethalP said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Every generation is different.  Sony dominated like never before with the PS2, then they totally botched the launch of PS3.  More importantly Microsoft and Nintendo were both tough competition in Generation 7.  The biggest reason Sony did poorly in Generation 7 is that their competition was just better.  Then in Generation 8, both Microsoft and Nintendo totally botched their launches.  The PS4 didn't do anything special with their launch at all, and yet they dominated Generation 8.  

My point is that the competition matters.  Nintendo Switch is serious competition.  If they don't take Nintendo seriously this time, then the PS5 is screwed.


If you don't think Nintendo and Sony are competing then you are in for one hell of a surprise.  The reason both consoles can do well in the same year is because Nintendo is in both the handheld and home console markets simultaneously.  Sony can win the home market and Nintendo can win the handheld market and then both do well the same year.  But if Nintendo wins the home market then Sony is going to get spanked.  

In previous generations, it was considered an advantage to be able to release your console a year or more before the competition.  Now everyone is acting like it doesn't matter at all.  If Sony gives Nintendo a 3-4 year head start, they are seriously screwed.

The Switch isn't selling to the same market as the PS4. The Switch is selling to the Nintendo market, the one they carved out for themselves. The library isn't robust enough to replace the PlayStation, it gets gimped versions of the very odd third party game like FIFA and Doom, but the full vision is realised the PS/Xbox/PC. It's a completely different demographic for Switch.

The industry and public don't view the Switch as an alternative to the PS4 or Xbox One. If they did and it was in the same market it would have directly eaten into the sales of the PS4, but it hasn't. On the contrary the PS4 has had two of it's fastest selling years so far all while the Switch was on the market.

The Switch releasing 3 years prior to PS5 means nothing for the growth of a PlayStation console. If Xbox got a 3 year head start that would be significant, because they sell to the same demographic and those same people who got an Xbox in those 3 years could have bought a PS5 instead. PS and Xbox are the core consumer base, the Switch isn't.

Why don't you know this? Fucks sake, you know what I find strange about gaming? It's the only medium I know of where it's die hard practitioners don't even know how their own industry works.

Hmm no i don't agree with that. A lot of PC gamers are going on Switch instead of buying a PS4/Xbox as a console anymore. 

 

Also PS4 pro, Scorpio and Switch are all relatively new and really expensive products so im sure if a new generation starts in 2019/2020 they might need a lot to convince people when you know there main argument is graphics and Pro and X are already doing so well already in that departement... Games take so long to make and we might see an even longer drought on PS5/Xbox? Than PS4 and One had since there is still huge games coming in 2 years and more and there is no way they will launch big games on brand new system, it will be cross gen as usual.

 

I think sony might have to innovate this time to really change the game and convince people. But usually when they win a gen they act lazy af.



xMetroid said:
LethalP said:

The Switch isn't selling to the same market as the PS4. The Switch is selling to the Nintendo market, the one they carved out for themselves. The library isn't robust enough to replace the PlayStation, it gets gimped versions of the very odd third party game like FIFA and Doom, but the full vision is realised the PS/Xbox/PC. It's a completely different demographic for Switch.

The industry and public don't view the Switch as an alternative to the PS4 or Xbox One. If they did and it was in the same market it would have directly eaten into the sales of the PS4, but it hasn't. On the contrary the PS4 has had two of it's fastest selling years so far all while the Switch was on the market.

The Switch releasing 3 years prior to PS5 means nothing for the growth of a PlayStation console. If Xbox got a 3 year head start that would be significant, because they sell to the same demographic and those same people who got an Xbox in those 3 years could have bought a PS5 instead. PS and Xbox are the core consumer base, the Switch isn't.

Why don't you know this? Fucks sake, you know what I find strange about gaming? It's the only medium I know of where it's die hard practitioners don't even know how their own industry works.

Hmm no i don't agree with that. A lot of PC gamers are going on Switch instead of buying a PS4/Xbox as a console anymore. 

 

Also PS4 pro, Scorpio and Switch are all relatively new and really expensive products so im sure if a new generation starts in 2019/2020 they might need a lot to convince people when you know there main argument is graphics and Pro and X are already doing so well already in that departement... Games take so long to make and we might see an even longer drought on PS5/Xbox? Than PS4 and One had since there is still huge games coming in 2 years and more and there is no way they will launch big games on brand new system, it will be cross gen as usual.

 

I think sony might have to innovate this time to really change the game and convince people. But usually when they win a gen they act lazy af.

My point was the Switch, even though it's a hybrid, is basically a handheld. It's selling to the handheld market. Yeah there are PC gamers who won't buy a PS4 but get a Switch but that's besides the point. In general PS and Xbox are part of that same consumer base, their sales substitute eachother. Nintendo stuff sells independently and can either sell amazing or terribly with little consequence to Sony or Microsoft. If your argument is that PC is replacing PS4/X1 then that is another can of worms, but it isn't either. Publishers need PS and Xbox to justify funding AAA games which is why most graphically demanding games even on PC are simply console ports with extra settings. Also why Switch could never be the replacement for them because the Switch isn't powerful enough to run gen 8 games developed from the ground up.

Which gets into liquid lasers argument that Switch will take over the gen if PS5 releases 3 years after it. That's complete bullshit. As if EA/Activision/Ubisoft etc are going to start developing primarily for Switch and gimp their engines. Games will get even more expensive and harder to make though, yeah. It could mean even less games in gen 9. But what do you suggest? That the industry just stops pushing real time graphics and just innovate on ergonomics and new ways of holding a controller forever? Someone has to set the standard base line for game development, and historically it's been PS/Xbox (for the last 3 gens at least). This nonsense of Switch taking the PS4's place in that regard is retarded.

Nintendo consoles are solely designed to play Nintendo games. The Switch will end it's life with 60-70% of it's total software sales being exclusive sales. As it stands I don't see how any multiplat will sell more than 5 million on it. If Skyrim struggles to sell 1 million on it then what chance does a lesser game stand? It's just not fit for the PS4's job. It has it's own niche.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Megiddo said:

Acting like Sony is screwed for the PS5 is hilarious. They have dominated the generation pretty much from the start. They continue to have an extremely strong first-party studio lineup which continues to produce profitable titles. They abandoned the dwindling handheld market in which they were only losing money.

They've pretty much taken all the right steps and hopefully will have learned a bit of humility after the transition from PS2 to PS3 but history does tend to repeat itself.

Every generation is different.  Sony dominated like never before with the PS2, then they totally botched the launch of PS3.  More importantly Microsoft and Nintendo were both tough competition in Generation 7.  The biggest reason Sony did poorly in Generation 7 is that their competition was just better.  Then in Generation 8, both Microsoft and Nintendo totally botched their launches.  The PS4 didn't do anything special with their launch at all, and yet they dominated Generation 8.  

My point is that the competition matters.  Nintendo Switch is serious competition.  If they don't take Nintendo seriously this time, then the PS5 is screwed.


zorg1000 said:

Ya its really silly to think PS5 would be in trouble by releasing 3-4 years after Switch.

We have seen that Switch & PS4 sales are not affected by one another based on the fact Switch had one of the best launch years in history at the same time that PS4 had its peak year.

PS4 and Switch are different enough that they can easily coexist/complement each other and there is no reason to believe a similar situation wont happen with PS5.

If you don't think Nintendo and Sony are competing then you are in for one hell of a surprise.  The reason both consoles can do well in the same year is because Nintendo is in both the handheld and home console markets simultaneously.  Sony can win the home market and Nintendo can win the handheld market and then both do well the same year.  But if Nintendo wins the home market then Sony is going to get spanked.  

In previous generations, it was considered an advantage to be able to release your console a year or more before the competition.  Now everyone is acting like it doesn't matter at all.  If Sony gives Nintendo a 3-4 year head start, they are seriously screwed.

So let me get this straight........the Switch is not even hindering the PS4 but it is somehow going to screw the PS5 and that makes sense to you? And yes releasing ahead of the others  is go8d but doesn't mean it will take the gen. Now I personally consider the Switch Gen 9 but it is listed as Gen 8 so that is something  to consider as well.

xMetroid said:
LethalP said:

The Switch isn't selling to the same market as the PS4. The Switch is selling to the Nintendo market, the one they carved out for themselves. The library isn't robust enough to replace the PlayStation, it gets gimped versions of the very odd third party game like FIFA and Doom, but the full vision is realised the PS/Xbox/PC. It's a completely different demographic for Switch.

The industry and public don't view the Switch as an alternative to the PS4 or Xbox One. If they did and it was in the same market it would have directly eaten into the sales of the PS4, but it hasn't. On the contrary the PS4 has had two of it's fastest selling years so far all while the Switch was on the market.

The Switch releasing 3 years prior to PS5 means nothing for the growth of a PlayStation console. If Xbox got a 3 year head start that would be significant, because they sell to the same demographic and those same people who got an Xbox in those 3 years could have bought a PS5 instead. PS and Xbox are the core consumer base, the Switch isn't.

Why don't you know this? Fucks sake, you know what I find strange about gaming? It's the only medium I know of where it's die hard practitioners don't even know how their own industry works.

Hmm no i don't agree with that. A lot of PC gamers are going on Switch instead of buying a PS4/Xbox as a console anymore. 

 

Also PS4 pro, Scorpio and Switch are all relatively new and really expensive products so im sure if a new generation starts in 2019/2020 they might need a lot to convince people when you know there main argument is graphics and Pro and X are already doing so well already in that departement... Games take so long to make and we might see an even longer drought on PS5/Xbox? Than PS4 and One had since there is still huge games coming in 2 years and more and there is no way they will launch big games on brand new system, it will be cross gen as usual.

 

I think sony might have to innovate this time to really change the game and convince people. But usually when they win a gen they act lazy af.

Wait where did you get that info that A Lot of PC gamers are buying the Switch over the XB1/PS4? 

Also Sony won PS1 to PS2 and didn't act lazy. They WAY over priced the PS3 but were not lazy that gen either. So why do you say they get lazy when they win?



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

xMetroid said:
LethalP said:

The Switch isn't selling to the same market as the PS4. The Switch is selling to the Nintendo market, the one they carved out for themselves. The library isn't robust enough to replace the PlayStation, it gets gimped versions of the very odd third party game like FIFA and Doom, but the full vision is realised the PS/Xbox/PC. It's a completely different demographic for Switch.

The industry and public don't view the Switch as an alternative to the PS4 or Xbox One. If they did and it was in the same market it would have directly eaten into the sales of the PS4, but it hasn't. On the contrary the PS4 has had two of it's fastest selling years so far all while the Switch was on the market.

The Switch releasing 3 years prior to PS5 means nothing for the growth of a PlayStation console. If Xbox got a 3 year head start that would be significant, because they sell to the same demographic and those same people who got an Xbox in those 3 years could have bought a PS5 instead. PS and Xbox are the core consumer base, the Switch isn't.

Why don't you know this? Fucks sake, you know what I find strange about gaming? It's the only medium I know of where it's die hard practitioners don't even know how their own industry works.

Hmm no i don't agree with that. A lot of PC gamers are going on Switch instead of buying a PS4/Xbox as a console anymore. 

 

Also PS4 pro, Scorpio and Switch are all relatively new and really expensive products so im sure if a new generation starts in 2019/2020 they might need a lot to convince people when you know there main argument is graphics and Pro and X are already doing so well already in that departement... Games take so long to make and we might see an even longer drought on PS5/Xbox? Than PS4 and One had since there is still huge games coming in 2 years and more and there is no way they will launch big games on brand new system, it will be cross gen as usual.

 

I think sony might have to innovate this time to really change the game and convince people. But usually when they win a gen they act lazy af.

Where are you getting this fake info from. switch came out last year, and ps4 had its best year ever, and xbox/ps4 are having the best year when combined according to NPD.

Last edited by quickrick - on 07 June 2018