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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

Megiddo on 03 June 2018
Teeqoz said:
Megiddo said:

It's not an actual catch 22. You don't have any reasons to doubt the VGC data when it has been pretty much spot on before (in terms of total sales at least). If you don't have any data to support your case then it's just a baseless hunch at best and can't really be considered in any sort of sense. So it's either up to you to prove the past data quoted as faulty or accept it as the best we have and try and draw conclusions based on it.

Have you been around to witness the several times Sony provides official figures and VGC turns out to be off by a million or more? How is that not sufficient reason to disregard VGC data?

When I have witnessed VGC data being wrong it was the PS4 being undertracked. So if anything, the current gap is likely larger than it is since VGC has routinely undertracked the PS4. So in that case, the data and the inaccuracy of the data goes even further against the idea that the Switch is closer to the PS4 than the numbers show.



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LethalP on 03 June 2018
zorg1000 said:
LethalP said:

What because I can cite evidence of my claims I can't be reasoned with? All I'm saying is I don't see a scenario where Switch outsells PS4 this year. If the Switch and PS4 were neck and neck at this point in the year trading blows week for week, then I'd see your point. But PS4 is consistently selling more world wide according to the only data we have or can go off.

I don't say this as some Sony fanboy who thinks GoW and Spider-man = 25+ million sales or some shit. I say it from what I can see so far in the year. All you argue is that Smash + Pokemon = domination, as if PS4 will simply stop selling in the holidays. But what you should consider is if Nintendo can't close the gap throughout the mid year, it's certainly not winning a holiday by 2+ million units. Not a chance.

No because you just said anybody who's opinion is different from yours is wildly speculating at best.

Never once have i said anything about domination, i have said multiple in various threads that i think PS4 and NSW sales this year will be very close and competitive regardless of who wins.

I'm looking at sales trends. PS4 is selling more than Switch according to the data we have. It's a 1.5 million gap as of May 19th. Unless the Switch magically starts selling more world wide, it won't close that gap until it starts winning. And so far I see nothing that can do that on Switch until Pokemon and Smash. Surely you see why I come to this conclusion? Even if you disagree?



Clarion on 03 June 2018
SKMBlake said:
Clarion said:
It depends if Nintendo can live up to the hype.

2017 was a great year for the Switch, but if we look at 2018, when it comes to releases, we're already in june and it is looking like those huge Wii U droughts.

Nintendo already released it's strongest system sellers - Mario and Zelda - to achieve this hype level.
Right now it's selling on this hype alone. But aside from Pokémon, there are not many big shots left. If the hype starts to cool down, current momentum will never pick up again. 

Wii U level droughts ? Hell no, Switch is out for only 15 months and have already more games than the Wii U.

Beside Pokémon (which will be a huge system seller), we already know Smash Bros will be out this year, and you clearly underestimate Mario Tennis Aces.

And let's not forget that before E3 2017, everyone was doubtful about the future of the Switch game library. And then we got the Super Mario Odyssey trailer, and everyone knew the game would sell like no other 3D Mario before

Well it may have more games if you count thousands of indies.

But talking about big shot AAA-games, the Switch got nothing this year.
Mario Tennis hardly qualifies, as I can se absolutely not a single person hyped about it. Sure, it's a "filler", but nothing more than that.





Teeqoz on 03 June 2018
Megiddo said:
Teeqoz said:

Have you been around to witness the several times Sony provides official figures and VGC turns out to be off by a million or more? How is that not sufficient reason to disregard VGC data?

When I have witnessed VGC data being wrong it was the PS4 being undertracked. So if anything, the current gap is likely larger than it is since VGC has routinely undertracked the PS4. So in that case, the data and the inaccuracy of the data goes even further against the idea that the Switch is closer to the PS4 than the numbers show.

Several times, VGC has overtracked the PS4, and it has also undertracked it. Hence further showing VGC's unreliability. If you've only seen the PS4 being undertracked you haven't been paying attention - the last time Sony gave us numbers (73.6 million at the end of 2017), VGC's figures had to be adjusted down by 500k (and that was despite VGC data at the time being not having reached the end of the year - VGC had literally only tracked one week ahead of the previous announcement of 70.6 million.)

So with only one weeks worth of data from the last official data point, VGC had managed to overtrack by half a million. So your claim that VGC only ever undertracks the PS4? Yeah, complete bollocks.



Megiddo on 03 June 2018

The comments in that last report claim the opposite. That VGC undertracked the PS4. Hence the "According to vgchartz the total sales of Ps4 as december 9th are 71.8, so that means only 600K weekly for the rest of december." followed by "Adjustments are being made. " from trunks.

So I don't know if you're lying on purpose or on accident, but do try and get your facts straight.

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/271089/sony-ps4-sales-top-736-million-units-worldwide/



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Jumpin on 03 June 2018

2017 could have been the last year. The two consoles are very close right now, and it can really go either way depending on the end of the year.
I don’t think we know enough about what Sony and Nintendo are doing in November and December. About half of PS4 sales occur in Q3, and most in the month before Christmas alone. Nintendo has the potential to do 60% in that quarter. So it’s really an unanswerable question until we know plans.

Nintendo dropped a super interesting announcement of a new type of Pokémon RPG. We don’t know how that will go yet. I thought it was an awesome and fresh idea - but Pokemon fans seem to be angry about it because of... no grinding? :/

I’m not a traditional Pokemon fan, so I think perhaps there’s a bit of a different expectation of what makes an RPG good from my perspective vs. there’s. Also, I loved the Go experience which they stuck their noses up at... It was kind of amazing seeing a bunch of grown men and women roving the country looking for Pokemon - IMO a really interesting part of video gaming history.

I’ll say that the Go Twins are an explosive of unknown yield. Don’t be surprised if they go off like a nuke and sell ~8 million each. Of course, they could do around 300K each. 

Last edited by Jumpin - on 03 June 2018

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AJNShelton on 03 June 2018
Clarion said: 


But talking about big shot AAA-games, the Switch got nothing this year.
Mario Tennis hardly qualifies, as I can se absolutely not a single person hyped about it. Sure, it's a "filler", but nothing more than that.

It was true, until the demo was available 2 days ago. It's a freakin' Mario Kart level game, way more fun than you could expect.



MinatozakiSana on 03 June 2018

well obviously, once Pokemon gets unleashed PS4 won't be able to keep up anymore. But for 2018 Switch is likely still behind PS4 though.



xMetroid on 03 June 2018
quickrick said:
xMetroid said:
Y'all are crazy. Switch will probably outsell the PS4 this year (Switch isnt that far behind and had literally no sellers since OCTOBER and 2nd half is packed.) PS4 will get destroyed in Japan in the coming months and if fortnite comes out on Switch, it will remove a big part of the current buzz on PS4.

There is no way Switch wont outsell the ps4 in 2019 tho. The new releases on PS4 dont bumb the sales too much and there has been a lot of bundles already. A pricecut can only do so much after 5-6 years compare to a Switch that will probably have its first pricecut.

Fortnite coming to switch wont change anything, its already out on ps4/xb1 which will be superior versions, not to mention, the online shooter community are already on those consoles, the only thing switch has is splatoon, and thats only big in japan.

Fortnite won't sell switch but it will kill the argument of buying another console cause it doesn't have fortnite. Pokemon, smash and other titles revealed at E3 will sell switches.



Mr_No on 03 June 2018

I wouldn't throw the towel just yet. Just because it's its last phase doesn't mean sales are gonna immediately slump. Not with the software that's coming out next. I'm not saying it will stay strong even after the PS5 is out, which is absurd. Even still, I'll give it one more year. That's it.