Quantcast
Solo Headed To Become A Flop? Yep, It Flopped.

Forums - Movies Discussion - Solo Headed To Become A Flop? Yep, It Flopped.

How Much Will Solo Make WW?

Under $700M 56 60.87%
 
$700M-$800M 18 19.57%
 
$801M-$900M 12 13.04%
 
$901M-$1B 3 3.26%
 
Over $1B 3 3.26%
 
Total:92
Jon-Erich said:
I think Solo can be compared to Justice League in many ways. Both movies were already expensive to make and then were made even more expensive after extensive reshoots were needed. In Solo's case, 70% of the movie had to be reshot after Ron Howard took over directing. This meant that even a modest box office return which may have been profitable wasn't enough. Both movies came out after previous movies in their franchises disappointed and divided audiences. For DC, that was Batman v Superman and Suicide Squad. Wonder Woman was successful, but that's because it worked off of a character people actually like from Batman v Superman. With Star Wars, that was the Last Jedi. It is also worth mentioning that the Last Jedi Blu Ray and DVD sales are performing nearly as well as a Star Wars movie should be. Both movies on their own are decent. They're watchable. However, they both suffered from unfortunate circumstances that made it almost impossible for them to be a success.

bold: I'm not sure if that's correct. It's selling well enough but not in the same level as a SW movie it seems. See this reddit link:

https://www.reddit.com/r/StarWars/comments/8pc883/the_last_jedi_blu_ray_sales_drop_to_56_of_force/

Further evidence that The Last Jedi sadly did turn off about half the audience, the-numbers.com is now reporting the launch week sales of The Last Jedi and... it's not good. Whereas The Force Awakens sold 3,420,540 units in its first week of release, The Last Jedi only sold 1,940,241 units. In raw monetary terms, the Last Jedi brought in over $40,000,000 less revenue in its first week of Blu Ray sales. Given its divisive nature, it is likely that after collectors' purchases the sales dropped rapidly in comparison to other Star Wars movies. Those numbers will be released next Wednesday.

Blu Ray sales are one of the very best ways of gauging an audience's reaction to a movie as purchasing a movie after seeing it in a theater is a vote from the consumer's wallet for the quality of the film. Although some are pointing to Solo's plummeting box office returns as a shock, Disney knew privately they were in trouble with the Star Wars brand as they've been holding onto The Last Jedi's Blu Ray sales outside of public view for the past few months. When a sequel gathers only 56% of its predecessor's Blu Ray sales, it indicates a massive swing in public opinion. As an example, the first Captain America movie released on BluRay to a sales amount of $20,313,189, while the sequel released to sales amount of $22,358,092. This indicates growth from one entry in the franchise to the next. Dropping the amount of Last Jedi from Force Awakens in the launch week tally is a gigantic number, and further evidence that Disney is hemorrhaging Star Wars consumers post-TLJ.

Links for reference:

The Last Jedi sales numbers: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-Ep-VIII-The-Last-Jedi#tab=video-sales

The Force Awakens sales numbers: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-Ep-VII-The-Force-Awakens#tab=video-sales

This post is not intended to make a statement as to the quality of either film or as to the direction of story content for the franchise. This post is simply a report on Blu Ray sales.



In the wilderness we go alone with our new knowledge and strength.

Around the Network
thismeintiel said:
Maxosaurus-rex said:

Tomorrow is the day RO had New Years day. No way it makes 7m tomorrow to keep up the ratio. It's going to make like 1/15th of RO on Monday 

Agreed. I think there's a good shot this film stops at $360M-$380M.

Friday theaters need to make room for Incredibles 2 (4200 theaters) and Tag (3300+ theaters). It already lost 50 theaters and will lose a lot more Friday (350- 700). RO didn't lose any until the Friday after this one. Dead pool made more per theater today than Solo. The lower end of your estimate is the higher end of mine. It's in the end of its run already 

Last edited by Maxosaurus-rex - on 10 June 2018

KiigelHeart said:

I've never been a hardcore Star Wars fun but I found TFA and Rogue One were the best SW movies since Empire Strikes Back. And I was absolutely shocked how bad The Last Jedi was :/ Pretty much the only thing I liked about it was character development of Kylo Ren and even that was made pointless because how boring and "perfect" Ray was. Even my wife hated it and she's not too picky. 

So from now on I'll just rent any new SW movies until they get their shit together.

This and the excellent job Hamill did, creating a very believable, worn down Luke.



1.8m for Mon.

On track for 215m domestic. 380m (and dropping) global

 

Needs 2.55m Tuesday to keep up the ratio  

Last edited by Maxosaurus-rex - on 12 June 2018

Maxosaurus-rex said:

1.8m for Mon.

On track for 215m domestic. 380m (and dropping) global

 

Needs 2.55m Tuesday to keep up the ratio  

Yea, not going to do that.  My guess is $2.2-$2.4M.

There is a slight problem with your math, though.  It was a mistake I made earlier, too.  They stopped reporting the week's FBO dailies early on this one, instead waiting til Sun/Mon to post the week+weekend.  So, the percentage is going to be slightly more in the favor of DBO than it really is, since we still get DBO dailies.  My guess is it's still probably dropping, but the global total is probably closer to $385M.  It's really why I'm just sticking to update after the weekends, unless something drastic happens, like it drops below $1M a day soon.



Around the Network
thismeintiel said:
Maxosaurus-rex said:

1.8m for Mon.

On track for 215m domestic. 380m (and dropping) global

 

Needs 2.55m Tuesday to keep up the ratio  

Yea, not going to do that.  My guess is $2.2-$2.4M.

There is a slight problem with your math, though.  It was a mistake I made earlier, too.  They stopped reporting the week's FBO dailies early on this one, instead waiting til Sun/Mon to post the week+weekend.  So, the percentage is going to be slightly more in the favor of DBO than it really is, since we still get DBO dailies.  My guess is it's still probably dropping, but the global total is probably closer to $385M.  It's really why I'm just sticking to update after the weekends, unless something drastic happens, like it drops below $1M a day soon.

I noticed that after I posted as well. However, it's losing theaters at a greater pace overseasthan domestic. So I'm not sure two extra days will do much. For example, last week it lost 500 theaters in Italy and Australia combined. 



2.27m for Tuesday. On track for 215m domestic.

Needs 1.71m today (1.57m tomorrow) to keep up the ratio. Incredibles 2 has pre screening today and tomorrow.



1.62m yesterday. On track for 215m domestic.

Needs 1.57 today to keep the ratio. Yesterday and very limited Incredibles release. Today has a much wider one. Tomorrow is a full release.

Needs 2.46m tomorrow to keep up the ratio. Needs 8.91m for the weekend



Even though its a bomb its not the biggest Disney bomb this year that would be A Wrinkle In Time. Also Pacific Rim Uprising is a bigger bomb despite being a lot more successful overseas and almost making $100 million in China. Speaking about China, Ready Player One pretty much got bailed out from being a bomb by almost making $220 million dollars there.



Solo's DBO now sits at $192.85M. This is 59.6% lower than RO for the same point in time. If this holds Solo will make $215M at the DBO. If the FBO percentage holds, it will end its WW run with $378.52M.