As many may know, the standalone Han Solo film launches tonight.  Well, it seems like there are already indicators that this film will be another big disappoint for Disney, like TLJ turned out to be. 

Box Office Projections

Near the beginning of May, there were several sources projecting that the film would open to a 4 day total of $160M-$170M.  This would put it just slightly behind Rogue One, another SW spinoff.  However, the closer we have gotten to release, those projections have been amended.  Disney is officially expecting $130M-$150M over the 4 days, while others suggest it may be as low as $125M for Memorial Weekend.  If this is the case, that would be a very poor showing for the film.

Also of interest is that this is the first SW film that Disney will be releasing in China at the same time as most other regions.  Usually they release a few weeks later.  My guess is they are attempting to pad out the WW numbers.  However, this has not worked, as we already have midnight numbers for China and it seems the movie is already a flop there with just ~$120K, with it only projected to make ~$10M for the entire weekend.

Rotten Tomatoes

While the critics scores have only been middling, with 6.5 as the average review, the more important aspect is those wanting to see the film.  As of this writing ~15.8K people have voted whether they wish to see the film or not.  Of those thousands, only 36% say they want to watch it, leaving 64% who do not.  It is very obvious that many in the fanbase have been turned off from the franchise due to TLJ and what they feel is a bastardization of the franchise.

Theater Screenings

Another interesting development is that many people have been posting pictures of the seating charts for the theaters in their area, showing many to not be sold out.  Not very good for a movies opening night.  Here is a link to one of my local theaters 7:00 PM showing.  We are less than 2 hours away from that time, yet there are ~45 seats that have yet to be sold.  7:30 and 10:00 is even worse, with ~55 seats still available.

My Take 

I think TLJ has done the damage many fans think it has, tarnishing people's interest in the future of the franchise under Disney.  Or maybe more accurately, under Kathleen Kennedy.  It doesn't help that the directors and writers have been putting in their own political agendas into the films, but much worse, out there on social media, even if they aren't quite blatantly put in the film.  Lando being a pansexual is the most recent example of this, with the writer saying he is glad that he is injecting identity politics into a franchise that was meant for everyone. 

And any fans that have a problem with it are belittled and accused of being the scum of the Earth.  Yet, strangely enough, Kennedy and Lucasfilm expect us to still go see the films. My prediction is that Solo doesn't even hit $1B WW, possibly falling short of even $900M.  A very poor result given how much money Disney has pumped into the film. 

Thoughts?  Will Solo go on to be a surprise hit?  Or has TLJ and identity politics caused to much damage to the franchise?

Or rather people are tired of having a Star Wars movie every single year, the box office performance was always going to plummet after force awakens. It was the first Star Wars movie in ages, now a new Star Wars movie is just becoming the norm, it's not an event.

TLJ was bad though.

I wasn't going to watch it due to no jedi, then i found out that Solo is a pansexual, so yeah not gonna bother.

After being so utterly disappointed with Last Jedi and the attitude from some people i have no interest in seeing it, will probably wait until the Blu-Ray. I think the boxoffice will be below what Disney wants, but it won't lose money

The yearly thing is just a poor excuse, though.  Marvel has been pumping 2-3 movies a year for the past 5 years or so, yet every sequel performs better than the last.  The difference?  Marvel tries to stay out of the political crap.  Even if they dabble in it a little, its very general things that most can agree on and, more importantly, they don't shit all over the fans who actually got them where they are when they don't agree.  They also don't try to shit on the characters, either, which is nice.

What I see happening with SW is the exact same thing that happened with the Ghostbusters remake.  The only difference is that instead of pushing the political agenda first, and making a poor film, Lucafilm/Kennedy made TFA first to rope us in.  Wasn't the greatest film, but it was decent and got us looking forward to more, where some of the issues in TFA could be addressed.  Then, after they had a hold of the fans and a pile of cash, they started pushing out their agenda into the lore (the Force is female) and films (TLJ and, now, Solo), either through the script or social media.  As expected, many fans are not accepting it.

Well, technically they are saying that Lando is a pansexual.  But, I still agree with you.

I have waited for that thread

I really hope so. I never saw Lando as pansexual and making him on because fashion in the original trilogy times was a little flamboyant is just idiotic. Also I feel bad for giving TLJ money to see it making it seem like I actually supported it. And making a SW without the things that make it star wars. Finally, Han Solo (Harrison Ford more like) is awesome but I never gave a shit about his back story. There are so many other characters they could have chose to focus on that actually expands the universe 

Some people need to get a fucking life.

Star wars fanboys are some of the silliest. There were actually a few saying that Ep7 deserved Oscar for best picture. They also allow themselves to be milked and taken advantage of more than any other fan base I'd say. Disney could put out two hours of Kylo trying to pass stool and it would make hundreds of millions 

They put starwars in the title. So no