I don't think you can use that as proof. There is another very major factor that must be at least contributing to the relative success of Indies on Switch. That is the much lower level of AAA competition. On all other platforms, the prospective buyer has a bunch of big-budget Mega Blockbuster Games to choose from. On the Switch, there are only a few of those.  So, with significantly less competition at that end, it stands to reason that Indies and other B-tier games will perform better on that system.

When it’s too late to matter.

I dont think its misleading and the quantity of games should remain stable for 3 reasons.

1. The teams that release Wii U ports are also working on new games simultaneously.

2. Teams that worked on late life 3DS titles will be releasing their first Switch projects.

3. Teams that released early life Switch titles will be releasing their 2nd projects.

The first year or two was always going to be a transition phase.

I don't get all of the negativity. They are certainly not going to release most of their games just as they are retiring the Switch (which would be when it is too late to matter), so, much like other consoles, it is likely to get most of its games in the middle of its life. 

Of course, that's also a huge reason as well. But even then, the portability and uniqueness of the Switch also lends itself better to those types of games than the major consoles due to their simple controls and digestible gameplay bursts. 

But its also fair to say that they lost money too during the Wii U/early 3DS days.

Yeah, I agree. I guess my underlying point is it it's just not so black-and-white. Switch is a different kind of system, so direct comparisons to the other consoles, and PC, are not really possible.

I'm not being negative. Nintendo has been reaffirming it's commitment to 3DS time and time again, and now I don't see support stopping until like 2020. By that time, they'll have to start their combined development. So by the time we actually get the full brunt of it, it'll be way too late for it to matter. I think the Switch will last for decades, but I think "too late to matter" has already approached now.

Switch is awesome though. Don't get me wrong. It's just clear that that mission isn't really relevant anymore. Switch doesn't need it to succeed.

I posted this is another thread

2018 1st party 3DS titles

March-Detective Pikachu (localization of a 2016 game)

June-Sushi Striker (also coming to Switch same day)

July-Captain Toad (also coming to Switch same day)

August-WarioWare (compilation of existing minigames)

2018-Luigi's Mansion (port of 2001 Gamecube game)

I think people are blowing the 3DS support out of proportion.

It's misleading in that the games you listed represents many years worth of development funnelled into a 2 year window. In fact those games represent the 2 years you mention + the development time of the Wii U Games. Off the top of my head, let's say that that list includes about half of Nintendo's development time during the Wii U era (so 4.5 years, divided by 2). 

In total then, we have 2 + 2.25, so 4.25 years of development in order to generate that list, which paints a very different story of Nintendo's current yearly output.

To address your other points:

1) that's true, however that was also true when they were working on the wii u, so there hasn't been an increase in productivity there, in fact, because they are having to reallocate some of their resources to the ports, in theory, their productivity has actually slightly decreased.

2) This is true, let's see how that actually looks in terms of the quality & quantity of the actual games. One thing is for sure though, those teams are much smaller & Switch games will, in general, take longer to develop. I'm sure it'll also take them some time to get up to speed with a new platform.

3) Again, this is true, but that doesn't change the picture as those future games won't enjoy the bolstering of a tonne of ports to fill the gaps. At least not indefinitely, I guess there are still quite a few wii u games worth bringing to switch.

In my opinion, it's quite simple, to maintain the release schedule that Nintendo have managed thus far in the Switch's life, they need to roughly double their output. For sure, part of the shortfall will be filled by the 3DS teams, though I feel that will still leave them considerably short. They need to invest in either a) increasing the size or number of 1st/2nd party teams &/or b) persuing more collaborations with 3rd parties.

The thing is, there is a huge appetite for Nintendo games and I can't remember the last game they released which didn't make them a healthy profit - so in theory it makes a lot of sense to significantly increase their operation. More games = more profits. The danger is, that they follow up the Switch with another Wii-U like disaster or the market dramatically moves away from dedicated mobile gaming and they are left with huge overheads and potential losses...

As a result they may be more attracted to the funding of 3rd party developer collaborations as this can be done on a pay-as-you-go basis, without the risks of huge ongoing wage-bills / rent / etc.

It'll be interesting to see what they do though I fear that Nintendo's tendency to be conservative (at least in terms of splashing the cash), means that the anaemic release schedules of yester-year may return...

I really hope that this isn't the case and they capitalise on Switch's success in a more aggressive (albeit risky way), as it promises a future of not needing 3rd party devs in order to offer a rich, full library of great games. Though I will qualify that by saying that there will still be a place for smaller quirky / indie games from 3rd parties - the perfect mix ;)