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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales (Week 18): Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - April 30 - May 6, 2018 (Golden Week)

TruckOSaurus said:
thismeintiel said:

3 weeks, which included Golden Week.

@ Megiddo

Definitely agree. It's not a flop. But, considering it's taken 3 weeks to sell ~50% of its first shipment, it's definitely not doing as well as Nintendo expected. Especially after the big ad push for it. 

Haven't followed the lead up to Labo's release that much, what did they do beyond the YouTube videos?

3 30 second TV advertisments all over Japan. Also had big displays in pretty much every big electronics/game store.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bN6iMorc-lg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lg3r_C1_AU4

(For comparison's sake, Kirby Star Allies had 2 30 second TV advertisements)

In answer to your question, no. I think 100k units for basically the only thing Nintendo had in April and had been advertising a ton would be awful.

@Kerotan Both PS4 slim and PS4 pro are readily available. The shortage is over (for now).



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RolStoppable said:
thismeintiel said: 

@ Megiddo

Definitely agree. It's not a flop. But, considering it's taken 3 weeks to sell ~50% of its first shipment, it's definitely not doing as well as Nintendo expected. Especially after the big ad push for it. 

The sell-through percentage in Japan allows you to gauge how a game performs according to retailer expectations, not publisher expectations. It's common that publishers have already printed copies that are ready to be shipped in week 2, because retailer and publisher expectations aren't always on the same page; this particular scenario means that retailers' expectations are notably below the publisher's expectations, hence why there is no delay between second order and second shipment.

Labo's scenario is the opposite where retailers were bullish from the get-go, but the sell-through rate doesn't provide any indication how much Nintendo expected Labo to sell up to this point. But unsurprisingly, if retailers place high initial orders, a publisher is going to fulfill those orders.

While you're correct that ultimately retailers decide how much they order, but let's not also pretend that bigger publishers can dictate a lot of that. If a game can't sell through its shipment that means retailers have to drop the price to clear inventory. That means it hasn't sold well.

It's way to early to say anything definitive about Labo, but it's not off to a strong start so far and that's fair to say. Have to wait and see if it have good word of mouth.



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Megiddo said:
TruckOSaurus said:

Haven't followed the lead up to Labo's release that much, what did they do beyond the YouTube videos?

3 30 second TV advertisments all over Japan. Also had big displays in pretty much every big electronics/game store.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bN6iMorc-lg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lg3r_C1_AU4

(For comparison's sake, Kirby Star Allies had 2 30 second TV advertisements)

In answer to your question, no. I think 100k units for basically the only thing Nintendo had in April and had been advertising a ton would be awful.

@Kerotan Both PS4 slim and PS4 pro are readily available. The shortage is over (for now).

Awful? I thought it was mediocre, middling, average. Awful and average don't really mix.



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If it did 1/2 of what it has done, ~100k instead of ~200k, that would be awful.

Not surprisingly, dividing current sales by 2 ends with a lesser result.



Megiddo said:

If it did 1/2 of what it has done, ~100k instead of ~200k, that would be awful.

Not surprisingly, dividing current sales by 2 ends with a lesser result.

Oh seems you misread my question then. I was theorizing the exact same sales up to this point but with the shipments changed to see if you thought the problem lied with the actual sales or with the retailer/publisher expectations instead.



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Oh, in that case I would be slightly more positive than I am currently. You see, the main issue with retailers still having ~50% of their initial shipment is that they will be far more hesitant regarding future shipments. As I've said many times in this thread already, it will be a hard sell for retailers to stock up on Labo for the holiday rush if they slowly bleed out the remaining initial shipment until the fall (especially if they have to resort to big discounts and other measures to sell them). And judging by what a lot of people are saying, the holiday season will be of utmost importance for Labo reaching its key demographic. So yeah, I think if the initial shipment had been smaller then retailer confidence would be higher and having a more fluid inventory is always a good thing.



Megiddo said:

Oh, in that case I would be slightly more positive than I am currently. You see, the main issue with retailers still having ~50% of their initial shipment is that they will be far more hesitant regarding future shipments. As I've said many times in this thread already, it will be a hard sell for retailers to stock up on Labo for the holiday rush if they slowly bleed out the remaining initial shipment until the fall (especially if they have to resort to big discounts and other measures to sell them). And judging by what a lot of people are saying, the holiday season will be of utmost importance for Labo reaching its key demographic. So yeah, I think if the initial shipment had been smaller then retailer confidence would be higher and having a more fluid inventory is always a good thing.

Thanks, it gives me a better understanding of where you stand. I'm curious as to what triggered this big first shipment whether if it's Nintendo or retailers overestimating the demand or something to do with the nature of the product being unconventional.



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Half of Labo's stock still sitting on shelves after Golden Week. Big blow to the "blue ocean" theory imo. Impressive launch for DK on the other hand, Nintendo IPs are thriving above all expectations.

Nice legs for Kratos. GoW most likely over 100K already with digital. Jikkyo Baseball very strong too, including Vita version.