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Forums - Sales Discussion - EA with PS4/Xbox One install base estimates

drkohler said:

One thing people here don't seem to grasp is the fact that for Electronic Arts, "install base" is not the same as "consoles sold".
Install base for EA gives them an estimate of how many customers are available to sell software to. We can safely assume that EA thinks (and I think that this is a reasonable assumption), that XBox1 X sales went almost entirely to Old-XBox1 owners. Hence while the number of consoles sold increases, the install base does not. They also neglect the "trickle down" effect of old consoles sold by new X1X owners into the secondary market over time (generating an increasing install base).
In the end Electronic Arts' "install base" logically is lower than "actual consoles sold", likely by a few millions. So unfortunately, this EA statement is no secret path to get to the "precise" sell-through numbers for XBoxes.

so you are saying EA thinks every ps4 pro sold was sold to a new customer? Its the only way the numbers make sense then. 



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I can't believe this myself but Bishopti (once a mod and insider on GAF) has said these figures are accurate.




 

The PS5 Exists. 


ZhugeEX:

"I'm not sure what the reason is for the discrepancy with EA's estimates.

It could be it excludes Pro/One X numbers.
It could be that EA excludes a territory like Japan (they used to do this last generation)
It could be that EA estimates PS4 at a lower number. (Which would be weird given Sony release the official numbers)
It could be that installed base =/= sell through in EA's eyes. So replacement consoles sold wouldn't count and only people actively using consoles would count?

EA's estimates aren't wrong. I'm just fairly certain one of the above things is true.

Ultimately what we do know is PS4 sell through was 73.6m at the end of 2017. Xbox One is less than half of that total which shows the big gap between the two in terms of sales. But that's something that has been known for a long time."

 

^ this could be a explaination right?

If we ignore PS4 + XBO sales in japan, do the numbers EA supplied make sense?



I really doubt it's that low. NPD has the Xbox One over 8 million these past two years. If these numbers are true, that would mean the Xbox one sold around a million units per year outside the US. Yeah, this doesn't adds up whatsoever.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

GribbleGrunger said:

I can't believe this myself but Bishopti (once a mod and insider on GAF) has said these figures are accurate.


I do wonder how ZhugeEX has all the numbers to be able to give an accurate sell through (or were his numbers shipped?) We already have Japan's numbers thanks to Media Create, and we know he gets NPD numbers. We do have a tracker for much of EU, but not sure if he actually gets those numbers. Where does he get the others? Could it be that his estimates for those not tracked are overestimated. Personally, I would believe a huge partner like EA, since they undoubtedly get most of the info, and probably talk to MS themselves about consoles shipped/sold when preparing to make a marketing deal. 



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thismeintiel said:
GribbleGrunger said:

I can't believe this myself but Bishopti (once a mod and insider on GAF) has said these figures are accurate.


I do wonder how ZhugeEX has all the numbers to be able to give an accurate sell through (or were his numbers shipped?) We already have Japan's numbers thanks to Media Create, and we know he gets NPD numbers. We do have a tracker for much of EU, but not sure if he actually gets those numbers. Where does he get the others? Could it be that his estimates for those not tracked are overestimated. Personally, I would believe a huge partner like EA, since they undoubtedly get most of the info, and probably talk to MS themselves about consoles shipped/sold when preparing to make a marketing deal. 

If these numbers are true, then around 80% of xbox sales would have to come from America alone...



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

Sounds much more realistic and in line with software sales than those severely inflated XBox numbers we have here on VGC.



GribbleGrunger said:

I can't believe this myself but Bishopti (once a mod and insider on GAF) has said these figures are accurate.


Didn’t we all know this already? For the whole time after the Scorpio announcement PS4 was outselling X1 by 3:1. Almost 1,5 years. No way the gap would be so small as VGC would us make to believe.



barneystinson69 said:
thismeintiel said:

I do wonder how ZhugeEX has all the numbers to be able to give an accurate sell through (or were his numbers shipped?) We already have Japan's numbers thanks to Media Create, and we know he gets NPD numbers. We do have a tracker for much of EU, but not sure if he actually gets those numbers. Where does he get the others? Could it be that his estimates for those not tracked are overestimated. Personally, I would believe a huge partner like EA, since they undoubtedly get most of the info, and probably talk to MS themselves about consoles shipped/sold when preparing to make a marketing deal. 

If these numbers are true, then around 80% of xbox sales would have to come from America alone...

80% would be ~24M, if we say they are slightly off and it's 30M.  Even using VGC's 20.28M, that's 67.6%.  That's not that hard to believe, given that outside of US, UK, and maybe AU, the XBO has basically been non-existent as of late. 



thismeintiel said:
barneystinson69 said:

If these numbers are true, then around 80% of xbox sales would have to come from America alone...

80% would be ~24M, if we say they are slightly off and it's 30M.  Even using VGC's 20.28M, that's 67.6%.  That's not that hard to believe, given that outside of US, UK, and maybe AU, the XBO has basically been non-existent as of late. 

So xbox sales went from 60% US to 80% all of a sudden? I really don't think it works that way. The xbox one sold 1.5 million units in the UK over the past two year, and Australia and Canada are in the hundreds of thousands at least. If these numbers where true, the xbox one would have sold less than 1 million units in mainland Europe, Latin America, rest of NA, and Asia in the past two years. The Xbox One was already at 2.5 million units in mainland Europe at the beginning of 2016, so please explain to me how it fell off a cliff like that...

Edit: This also assumes us sales where 8 million the last two years. Considering last year was a down year by most consensus estimates, yet still sold 4.2 million in the US, its proboably higher than that  

Last edited by barneystinson69 - on 09 May 2018

Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).