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Forums - Movies & TV - How High Will Avengers:IW Soar? (Currently @ ~$2.04B+)

thismeintiel on 24 May 2018
The_Liquid_Laser said:
thismeintiel said:

Well, it made ~$30M WW for this just this past Mon and Tue.  It's definitely slowing down at the DBO, but it should still make it to ~$650M.  It's still doing great at the FBO, though, as ~$24.4M of that $30M is outside the DBO.  If the FBO holds at ~67.3%, the final WW numbers would be ~$1.99B.  However, it's obvious that the FBO is probably going to make up more like 70% if the trend continues, which would put WW numbers at ~$2.17B.

It's definitely going to be around $2B regardless of whether it is a little above or a little below.  I saw somewhere that it had a huge first week in China, but it had a huge drop off after that.  In general Infinity War is taking in huge record breaking numbers everywhere, but ticket sales also seem front loaded.  Infinity War will definitely not have the legs that Black Panther had.

Well, it launched in China on the 11th.  In it's first weekend, it made $191M.  The most recent numbers we have for China is up to the 20th, at which point it has made $301.4M.  So, that's $110.4M in just 7 days after release.  That hardly seems to be extremely frontloaded.  Not anymore than any other film, anyway.  For comparison's sake, BP launched in China with $63.1M and ended at $105.1M, meaning it made 60% of its total in the opening weekend.  Avengers, so far, is at 63.4% with just 7 days after opening weekend accounted for.  So, in China, IW will have better legs than BP did.

In fact, if you look at the big picture, in the end IW is going to have equal or better legs than BP at the FBO.  BP opened with $169.4M and has ended at $646M.  That's 26.2% of its total take in the opening weekend, or a multiplier of 3.8x.  And after this weekend, IW will most likely sitting at $1.3B at the FBO, which makes it 29.4%, or a mulitiplier of 3.4x.  And that's just after 5 weeks. This movie is probably going to go onto make ~$1.4B-$1.5B at the FBO

Sure, legs in the US aren't as good, but IW has much stronger competition than BP did.  The FBO is also helping make up for that.  And IW still has a couple more weeks to go before it completely falls off a cliff.

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 24 May 2018

 

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V-r0cK on 24 May 2018

I hope itll hit the $2B mark, and would be even better if it was able to knock out Star Wars 7 for the #3 spot.



EnricoPallazzo on 24 May 2018

Curious to see your post about the Han Solo movie OP



thismeintiel on 24 May 2018
V-r0cK said:
I hope itll hit the $2B mark, and would be even better if it was able to knock out Star Wars 7 for the #3 spot.

I think $2B is basically guaranteed.  It's still doing $2.5M+ on a daily basis at the DBO.  This 4 day weekend it should be do ~$18M-$20M.  That alone would put it close to $1.9B. 

And its legs are proving to be much better at the FBO.  In just the past two days of results, it made ~$24.4M there.  I'm guessing after the weekend it should be ~$1.3B, which is going to push close to $2B. 

In the end, I think we are looking at ~$650M at the DBO, and ~$1.43B at the FBO, which puts it at ~$2.08B.  Just enough to pass TFA.  I do find it hilarious that IW's FBO alone is going to pass the WW take of TLJ.

EnricoPallazzo said:
Curious to see your post about the Han Solo movie OP

I think once BOM posts their predictions for the weekend, I will make a thread about it.  I definitely have some things to say about it.

BTW, I LOVE your avatar.  He will be missed.



 

V-r0cK on 24 May 2018
thismeintiel said:
V-r0cK said:
I hope itll hit the $2B mark, and would be even better if it was able to knock out Star Wars 7 for the #3 spot.

I think $2B is basically guaranteed.  It's still doing $2.5M+ on a daily basis at the DBO.  This 4 day weekend it should be do ~$18M-$20M.  That alone would put it close to $1.9B. 

And its legs are proving to be much better at the FBO.  In just the past two days of results, it made ~$24.4M there.  I'm guessing after the weekend it should be ~$1.3B, which is going to push close to $2B. 

In the end, I think we are looking at ~$650M at the DBO, and ~$1.43B at the FBO, which puts it at ~$2.08B.  Just enough to pass TFA.  I do find it hilarious that IW's FBO alone is going to pass the WW take of TLJ.

lol ya that is pretty funny and that's also awesome to hear!  IW is 10yrs in the making and deserves it all.



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Chris Hu on 24 May 2018

Its legs are slowing down a lot especially domestically it probably will not make enough money to move up another spot in the all time world wide box office list.



Bofferbrauer2 on 25 May 2018
Chris Hu said:
Its legs are slowing down a lot especially domestically it probably will not make enough money to move up another spot in the all time world wide box office list.

Yeah it's legs are getting cut off both by Deadpool 2 and by Solo. That's just too much for many to afford



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thismeintiel on 27 May 2018

Almost forgot about updating this thread.

Anyway, IW made an estimated $16.5M this weekend. This brings the DBO to $621.7M, passing TLJ to become #7 on the Top 10 All Time for DBO. It is also at $1.9B WW.



 

thismeintiel on 03 June 2018

Estimates are in. IW made $10.37M, bringing its DBO take to $642.87M. It is currently at $1.96B+ WW. It needs ~$35M to hit $2B WW.

While it is obvious that IW will not match BP, I do think it has a real shot at becoming the #4 for all time DBO, which would put it ~$660M. If it accomplishes this, and the FBO percentage holds, IW will make ~$2.02B WW.



 

Maxosaurus-rex on 10 June 2018

27m away from 2b