Horizon Zero Dawn was PlayStation game of the year for 2017.
It was the game to move the technology foward, make a point on what you can get on PS4 and a massive project that spawnned 5 years of dedication resulting in one of Sony finest titles.
This year that's God of War, Spider Man is not in the same league game wise, it's not the game to be talked about, it's another probably good lower tier game.
It takes a fucking lot to put ab exclusive game on track to break 10M sales, Sony had just a single franchise able to do it up until 2012, MS still just has one, and both of those are not hitting that anymore bscause they could not meet the massive level of excitement a game needs to have, specially an exclusive, to get close/break pass that kind of achievement.
You guys are expecting a potentially great common game, in the sense there are a decent bunch of games that go that way, as Killzone and Infamous for example, to perform like the best of the best of what Sony has been able to achieve with massive projects that steal the scene in every possible way.
Not the same level, not gonna happen, even as I would like it if the game deserves it.
Horizon was arguably not even as good as Nier, Nioh and Persona 5 in the same year, gameplay wise at least. Design wise it far from broke any ground. It was well executed, but it's not exactly Gears Of War in that respect. It sold more than Gears for sure, but Gears didn't release on the PS4 which is a software shifting beast. Far Cry 5 sold 5 million in 1 week, Monster Hunter World sold 7.9 million in 2 months, both of these selling mainly on the PS4, yet you find it hard to come to terms with the idea of Spider-Man selling over 5 million in it's lifetime?
I'm pretty sure Insomniac are dedicated to this project every bit as much as Guerilla was to Horizon, and rest assured, it's been in development for a good 4-5 years too. They are putting everything they have into it just as much, and lets face it, Insomniac have a far better history than Guerilla when it comes to good games, so if anything I have more faith in them to make something great.
There's room for more than one super hyped exclusive in any given year. Just because the PS4 has only had one per year for the last few years doesn't mean that can't change. You're pretty much the only one I've seen on the internet who thinks there isn't a lot of hype for Spider-Man. In fact, before the review scores for GoW I would have said there was more hype for Spider-Man overall. Which is why you should also wait for how this game reviews, because if it does 90+ metacritic and is basically the Arkham City of Marvel games, then I don't see any Universe where it couldn't sell 5+ million or even 10 million on the PS4.
And what do you even mean by 'common game'? If the game ends up being good it's good. It might even be great. It's a game with the same budget as UC4, Horizon, GoW. It has the same jaw dropping visuals, and it has had an equally positive reception from people who have played it. It's just as likely to 'steal the scene' as Horizon. Spider-Man will outsell Horizon, and score higher on Metacritic. Easy.