But it's literally a few weeks from passing the lifetime sales of GoW 3, the previous best seller in the series. So then using past games as any indication would be stupid. You seem to have it in your head that Horizon is a bigger franchise than GoW and that it will have better legs. It won't, not because I see the future, but because I have some common sense. GoW has already shown beyond doubt that it will be more successful than Horizon. In literally every single way.

There's an extremely thin chance I'm wrong though, so you can choose to hang on to that if you like.

Whether it passes the lifetime sales of GoW 3 or not isn't the point.  It was you invalidating the method of tracking the game by pointing at Horizon, which is absurd thinking, let alone method, as others have pointed out.  As I've said before, games have tendencies to drop in sales suddenly, which again would be more evidence against... your feelings?  Oh, your common sense.  I suppose the myriad of folks disagreeing with you have no common sense then?

Whatever then. Just a question, what do you think GoW will sell and why? Just that sometimes arguing on a forum you loose focus of the conversation, so lets get to the point.

A change in the directional tone of a game, or its quality, can be very significant. I was never interested in the God of War series until now. I'm definitely playing this one. There's also how they are marketed. The west weren't really very interested in the Yakuza series, until Yakuza 0, which wasn't really any different from the rest, but it had a lot of promotional awareness, like the meme of the real estate manager Nugget the chicken, which started off as a random tweet, and now Sega are printing Nugget business cards. These things got more reviewers interested in trying the series, which lead to it getting more critical acclaim, etc.
Persona 5 isn't particularly different than P3 and P4, but it was promoted with an emphasis on its style, and this seems to have worked out well as it hit 2 million in November 2017.

These are factors are hard to quantify though, so people will have to go with their gut feeling at times.

The evidence against it is the series past sales, something I pointed out already.  God of War PS4 is a part of the God of War franchise, not the Horizon Zero Dawn franchise.  Their sales are completely and totally separate of each other.  Your evidence is not even evidence, it's a comparison.  

Before we had numbers.... I thought GoW "might" do 10m.... that was when we heard pre-orders wherent doing so good.

Then critics review it and its in the 95-94 range, and we get the "Over 3.1m in 3days, sold though" report.
Ontop of japan/UK numbers that show it only dropped like ~35% in its 2nd week.

God of War is going to be massive... Im thinking it "could" do upwards of like 15m, depending on how Sony handle bundleing and stuff down the line. A 199$ PS4 slim bundled with God of War come christmas, should put in alot of work.

For Kyuu too.

You'll see then, the game is not getting ANYWHERE close to Horizon, God of War and Uncharted 4, you guys are vastly overstimating it I don't know why. Those three games, are something on a complete different level, and really, there isn't a fraction of the hype for Spidey that we had for those.

I honestly don't see where are you coming from to think an Insomniac Spidey game will sell 10M copies out of the blue, it's like expecting Detroit to go and do it because it looks AAA...

Where is the appeal for this game to compare it to 4/5 years project from Guerilla, Santa Monica and Naughty Dog?

5M+ is where it'll land if it goes extremely well.

The Order, you could say, wasn't a very good game (although I found little wrong with it), but DRIVECLUB is anything but a 'crap game'. If fact, I'd love an explanation as to how you drew this conclusion. Not living up to expectations (although it did for plenty of people) =! a crap game.

Detroit is AAA, though. :P