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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Theory/Prediction: Sony is about to reveal a Portable PS4

 

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ryuzaki57 on 01 May 2018

I'm happy that I'm not the only one to have this theory in mind. Thank you for posting this.

Yes, the writing are on the walls. After having repeatedly said that the portable market wasn't a option, their speech slightly changed some time ago when Nintendo began to rise again. Some Sony exec said that they couldn't ignore the Switch anymore.

If you look at recent JP multi-platform releases, it's clear that portability is still a thing in Japan. AoT2 PS4 accounts for only 40% of total sales, Atelier Lydie&Suelle sold half of copies on Vita/Switch, and if you look at COMG the Vita version of Persona 3&5 Dancing is the top preorder item atm. With Switch being even more successful abroad, they can't let Nintendo eat they margins further.

PS4 Mini (let's call it that) doesn't even need to be cheap, as last year has shown that customers are ready to line-up for a 300€+ product. Sony could set the price high while lowering the Pro, and sell it at a profit without the need of a big shipment objective. Even more feasible if it's a digital-only system. As I've just been writing, the rise in digital sales ratio opens the way to such a handheld. Monster Hunter World sold 700K digital in Japan, so there's increasingly less reluctance to non-physical games. Needless to say that would be hugely beneficial to 3rd parties, strangled by the cost of Switch cartridges.

There are two points I'd want to add to your thesis.

6. Slim stock has been drying up quickly in Japan for the past 3 weeks, while Pro is steady. There's absolutely no reason that Sony wouldn't be able to ship/manufacture the slim. It's just looking like they want to phase it out by E3. Still, there hasn't been reports of Slim stock lowering in the West.

7. Some JP publishers which have been relying on Vita have dropped Vita support way to fast. Compile Heart has Mary Skelter 2 (DRPG) for PS4 only, while the first one was a successful Vita exclusive. They also unveiled Yusha Neptune, a 2D RPG that could run on Vita but is PS4 only as well. NIS also has been forgetting about the Vita quite suddenly. Could those companies know something we don't?

 I really hope we're into something with that.



 

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caffeinade on 01 May 2018
Trunkin said:
caffeinade said:

Yeah, my solution is stupidly overpowered for what would be demanded from it.
GDDR6 and HBM 2 offer more bandwidth per watt, compared to GDDR5: they will be nice to have in laptops and similar devices.
I doubt Sony would want to include expensive tech like HBM in a portable console, assuming they have a desire to target the masses like Nintendo.

Finding a way to store PS4 games on a portable device will probably be the most challenging problem to overcome.
SSDs are obviously pretty expensive for the capacity they offer, and who would want a hand-held device with a HDD in it.
Then again who would want a portable console with:

  • Active cooling, that requires the device to have an air vent.
  • Roughly three hours battery life (running AAA games).
  • An SoC that launched in 2015.

I'm still not totally clear on the whole active cooling thing with regards to the Switch. I mean, I guess there must be a fan in there, but I never hear in running--not in handheld mode at least, and the only time the device is warm to the touch is after extended sessions in docked mode. Also, trust me, as someone who owned a Zune, an HDD in a portable device is a much bigger inconveniece than an air vent -- or even poor battery life.

I'm also surprised that you honestly believe a handheld PS4 is physically possible(without active cooling?), especially when the current PS4 already sounds like a blowdryer when it's running.

I said a passively cooled PS4 Portable is possible?
News to me.

The Switch is a family device, meaning children.
Children are dirty, gross, and stick things in vents and stuff.
If a child is old enough to play GoW, then they should know better than to shove gunk in a console's air-vent.

Last edited by caffeinade - on 01 May 2018

Conina on 01 May 2018
ryuzaki57 said:

PS4 Mini (let's call it that) doesn't even need to be cheap, as last year has shown that customers are ready to line-up for a 300€+ product. Sony could set the price high while lowering the Pro, and sell it at a profit without the need of a big shipment objective. Even more feasible if it's a digital-only system. As I've just been writing, the rise in digital sales ratio opens the way to such a handheld. Monster Hunter World sold 700K digital in Japan, so there's increasingly less reluctance to non-physical games. Needless to say that would be hugely beneficial to 3rd parties, strangled by the cost of Switch cartridges.

That's much too vague. Which price do you expect for a portable PS4 which is accepted by the market AND can be sold with a profit?

Miniturization is costly (lowering TDP, lowering weight below 500 grams, adding a screen, adding enough battery life for a few hours).

 

ryuzaki57 said:

6. Slim stock has been drying up quickly in Japan for the past 3 weeks, while Pro is steady. There's absolutely no reason that Sony wouldn't be able to ship/manufacture the slim. It's just looking like they want to phase it out by E3. Still, there hasn't been reports of Slim stock lowering in the West.

Why should they phase out the entry model when they can use its lower price for advertizing the whole PS4 family?



RaptorChrist on 01 May 2018

The thing is, console gaming seems to be on a sharp decline lately. Even if things look just alright here in America, places like Japan have neglected consoles for years now, and Sony needs to think about all markets with their next product.

Sony has a history of playing follow the leader, and if they deem that their next console would fare better if it was like the Switch, then that's what they will do.

It does seem unfair, and I would bet that Nintendo has copyrighted every aspect of the Switch. I'm not knowledgeable about copyrights, but my personal observations have lead me to believe that they are BS, and a company can always find a way around a copyright.



gemini_d@rk on 01 May 2018

Something in terms of hardware is happening.
It can be a super slim ps4, a ps4 pro slim or yes, a new portable console.
Particularly, a psp 2 that allows to download ps4 games to be played anywhere, would be very welcome, without anything of Switch and hybrid console, only portable.
And to think, if the resolution is 720p to play God of War, Uncharted 4, Horizon out there, would not be bad.
Maybe a retrocompatible portable console that when connected to the ps4 base via cable, would allow you to play from ps1 to ps3 on tv?
Think a Monster Hunter World and Dragon Quest Xl portable in Japan, even at 720p, at the end of the year?

Last edited by gemini_d@rk - on 01 May 2018

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Random_Matt on 01 May 2018

Need a xperia Z5 tablet, where you can download and play your PS4 games.



Mr.Playstation on 01 May 2018

Will Physical games already owned by playable on the system? I might double dip if that is the case.



Send a Friend Request On PSN :P

forevercloud3000 on 01 May 2018
KBG29 said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

This just screams Sega Nomad to me, we saw how well THAT went over. Sony is not releasing a portable PS4, there are just too many factors working against it. Physical software would be a problem, digital only would cut the potential market for software sales. People still buy physical games, I cant imagine a portable console with a cd/dvd drive, would add significant bulk and cost to the product.

 

What would be the demographic for a portable PS4? Considering the PS4 is in year 5 with <80 million sold, are we expecting a large percentage of repeat buyers to put up $400-500 for a bulky portable version of something they already have. Are a there a plethora of new customers who havent yet purchased a PS4 who will finally dig in because now it's portable?

 

There's also the Nintendo factor, both times Sony has attempted a more powerful handheld than Nintendo they've come up short

I don't think a digital only PS4 Mobile would cut into the potential market as much as you think. Digital is growing stronger and stronger, and this would be a perfect device, to drive even more people to buy digital. Even if they don't buy a PS4M, just knowing that a digital copy could be played on PS4M if they decide to buy in the future would easily tip the scales. 

The demograohic question is always asked for new products. Many people asked, who the Switch was for. People asked why they would ever need a cell phone to do anything but make calls, and who would want something like that. Before the start of this gen, many were asking who needs a console in this day and age. There are some ~250 million people that by consoles and handhelds. If a console or portable is released that meets peoples needs it will sell.

Going on to price, I don't know how to say it, but there is no way a PS4 Mobile would be $400 - $500. If it is based on the OG PS4, and running on the same chipset as a theoretical PS4 SS, then there is no reason it should be more than $299.99. Smartphones massive mark ups have blinded people to the true cost of mobile devices. A Smartphone cost $250 in parts and sells for $800 - $1000, a portable cost $250 in parts and it is $200 - $300. In the console business it has never been about soaking consumers as much as possible on hardware, you sell at cost and make money on software and services. 

Are there a plethora of new consumers yet to by PS4? Did PS2 sell 150 million units? Did PS1 sell 100M+? Did DS sell 150M units? There is plenty of room for PS4 to grow. There is no reason that PS4 spanning Home and Mobile could not be the most successful gaming platform of all time. On the flip side, there is no garentee of it either. In theory, having a unified platform, that spans across mobile and home should reach a larger userbase than a platform locked to either one. 

Finally addressing Nintendo. What makes a PS4 Mobile different, is the shared ecosystem. Sony would not be building an entirely new product and platform. They would simply be expanding their exsisting Hardware, OS, Software, and Services to a new form factor. Thanks to the shared R&D and Devleopment, a Mobile PS4 would be a very cheap venture for Sony, meaning that they don't have a lot to loose. A PS4 sold is a PS4 Sold, a PS4 Mobile sold is a PS4 sold. It all goes towards growing the same ecosystem. They don't have to sell more PS4M than Switches for PS4M to succeed. If the combonation of PS4+PS4M is more than Switch great for Sony, but at nearly 80M strong already and closing in on $2 Billion in yearly profits PS4 is already a successful platform. So PS4M can sell 2 Million additional PS4's a year or 20 Million. At the end of the day it grows the PS4 platform, brings more people to Sony's OS, and/or keeps current customers active on PlayStation more often. It is a win, win situation for Sony, and increases the value of their OS, Software, and Services.

This echoes my thoughts on the How and Why perfectly.



      

      

      

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contestgamer on 01 May 2018

Is it even possible to cram a PS4 in to a switch sized portable unit??



potato_hamster on 01 May 2018

Well I hate to burst your bubble, but according to people like Colin Moriarty, PS5 games are already in production by major studios. So, that means those dev kits are definitely PS5 kits.