A 20k baseline would be unlikely? Even the most pessimistic person wouldn't predict that lol.

You think after Golden week it won't go lower than 20K and supply chain fixed, at the current price point? (I can reasonably think it could land there, and I feel the period after golden week and now are usually around the same). 

This is pessimistic view point. My optimistic view point would be 25k base. 

I do agree that these forums can be ridiculous sometimes.There are some users from the Sony side that whenever the PS4 is treading bad waters, they say stuff like "Home consoles on Japan are dead, so it selling this bad is normal"(There is already one comment like this on here, you can check out) or "PS4 is doing great overseas, so Sony dosent care about Japan", but when PS4 starts doing well on it, like it did when MHW arrived, the tone totally changes, and start saying stuff like "heh, thiose idiots that thought that PS4 was dead on Japan" or things of the same sort.Heh, I even remember a user here who went on claiming that the Switch would fail to sell well on Japan because he was reading on japanese forums that those users werent very fond of the machine.It was a very entertaining period.And the same thing can be said for the Nintendo side, where some users can get very defensive when Nintendo consoles start doing bad on Japan and there isnt a legit reason for it doing bad.The usual sentences arent far off of the ones you just posted.other ones you usually see are "Nintendo consoles are more popular on the USA, so they are sending more units there, thats why the stock is so low this weak!".You know the drill.

Having said that, please, please stop this Faelco.I am not one of those people, and while I do admit its simply more fun at the moment to cheer for Nintendo, I am as unbiased as possible when it comes to these situations, when we try to analyse whats going on.I mean, I like to believe you know me enough to know Im not as blind as you seem to suggest.So lets stop this kind of nonsense talk, please?

First of all, about your whole Vita and PSVR point:Who said that, only because they have supply, it means that the demand for them is high?Who is even saying that they are selling well?Having stock dosent mean its flying off the shelves.Actually, its most likely the oposite, as Media Create shows(at least for Vita).It could be a stock that was bought 3 weeks, 1 months, maybe even 2 months ago, and they didnt manage to sell it all yet, while the PS4 manages to sell everything that is being shipped, which seems to be, at least for the last month, anywhere between 10k to 20k.Second, as Im much in the dark in this situation as you.I dont know whats the cause.And like I said, if it ends up being exclusively a supply problem, Ill be the first one to admit.I simply just think thats its more likely that its a mix of supply problems coupled with retailers buying less stock.Now the reason for that i have no idea.Dwindling sales due to its age, Switch canabilizing a bit of its market, pre Golden week, lack of compelling software.Could be any of those reasons.Probably its a combination of all of them.

And just to adress the anecdotal evidence part:Its not that I dont believe you, its simply that, just because a couple of stores that you go through dosent have PS4 on them, you cant make a conclusion on that alone that PS4 must be having supply problems.Without more evidence and proof, there could be any number of reasons behind it, like the ones I already said.And just to clarify:if someone came and said the same thing but about the Switch, I would also call BS on that.

And sorry for the late reply.I went to sleep, then I had classes and a bunch of responsabilities to attend to.

Thats not what i said, i said since week 8 its been down an average of ~10k/week YOY and i doubt it would have sold an addition 10k each of those weeks with excess stock.

Week 8-34.8k

Week 9-26.6k

Week 10-28.4k

Week 11-22.6k

Week 12-23.8k

Week 13-25.3k

Week 14-14.5k

Week 15-11.0k

PS4 has averaged 23.4k for the last 8 weeks and would have needed to average ~33k to be up YOY in that time span.

When factoring in digital, it will probably pass 3 million eventually.

Don't worry, the "ridiculous forums" part wasn't specifically about you, it's more of a reaction to all the recent Japan sales threads. Sorry if I seemed too harsh.

My Vita/PSVR argument wasn't that it's selling well, quite the opposite. You were saying that retailers were the one not ordering PS4s because they were disappointed about the sales. My point is that the Vita and PSVR sales are way lower than the PS4, and the retailers have Vita and PSVR all the time. And the sales are not bad enough for it to be months old stocks, so they do order Vita and PSVR regularly, enough to have a constant stock. It would be perfectly ridiculous for them to decide to not order enough PS4 because they think it doesn't sell enough, and yet order more than enough Vita and PSVR, don't you think?

I know that we can't be sure about something just because of a few stores. But we don't have that much people here trying to buy a PS4 in Japan, so we can't get a lot more info than that. Some other users checked the online stores of big Japanese retailers and the PS4 wasn't available either (right now the only PS4 sold by Amazon themselves and available is the Shadow of Mordor bundle...). When it's the same things for weeks or months, it's maybe not enough to understand the problem entirely, but it's IMO enough to understand that there is a problem.

New anecdotal evidence. I went to get my GoW bundle this morning, 2 weeks after my last time in the store. Still no PS4 available at all, except for a dozen preordered bundles (I preordered the last one 2 weeks ago). Switch, PSVR, Vita and Labo all available, with a lot of stock for Switch and Labo. The store was very quiet and empty though, maybe too early. Families will surely go get Labo tomorrow.

What would you say if a big Gamestop in a city like New York or London didn't have any PS4 for more than 2 weeks, maybe a month? Normal situation or shortage? For me, it's not normal...

From what I know, while the PS4 is supply constrained, it wouldn't have sold that much better without any supply issues. So probably this week would have been 13-16k normally.

But this is also the slow season before Goldenweek, so we will have to see how the sales evolve after that.

Sony might just think that fixing the stock issue isn't worth it.

I think everyone agrees there is an issue with PS4 supply at present, what  nobody can say for certain is what the problem is and why the PS4 seems to be in an artificial death spiral with Sony acting unconcerned.

If there is no official word, people will form their own theories which would align with whatever end of the Sony  love-hate spectrum they fall.

Just utterly pathetic numbers all around ...

Japan's future as a dedicated gaming devices market is probably at stake for the very first time! Heck, we could be witnessing a precursor to the very first Japanese video game market crash by the end of this generation/start of next generation!

It must be extremely sad that the most currently relevant Japanese game franchises in the market have been reduced to less than a dozen. Animal Crossing, Dragon Quest, Mario, Pokemon, Monster Hunter, Splatoon and Super Smash Bros are all that's left ...

The situation is so dire that franchises such as Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts and Yokai Watch may not be able to reach 1M units sold in Japan ever again with future entries ...