You are right I should have said 'many' and not 'most'. But that will be enough for Sony winning this year.

But how did you come to this conclusion though? And why is it only for NIN and not applied to Sony as well with the PS4?

PS4 has all the big multiplats and generally has many more games. Switch depends more of its Nintendo games and has thus less big games.

And finally PS4 will have Spiderman this holiday in US.

But couldnt the same be said for the big PS4 games this year? PS4 sales will be close to 85 million before the holiday shopping season starts and those games belong to established, popular genres so isnt it likely that a large chunk of their audience is already on PS4?

Im not trying to say PS4 wont win, it has a great chance of winning, i just thought your reasoning was a bit off.

That argument is only allowed against Nintendo :P

But on topic, the big question in my mind that E3 won't answer is bundles.  Will Nintendo do any this Holiday that will be widely available?  Now,  I can absolutely see them introducing a bundle as the standard SKU this fall, probably with Odyssey, Breath of the Wild, Splatoon, or Mario Kart included.  Might even do two, one for each joy con option.  That would be something we've seen them do before and also a common practice.  Sony did somethjng similar with Last of Us Remastered.

But will Nintendo have any widely available bundles with games launched during or around the Holidays?  Will they have one for Smash or Pokemon (if it makes it)?  Even just having them from Black Friday to Christmas would be massive.  But this is something Nintendo hasn't done in years, only occassionally doing limited edition bundles.  If Nintendo changes their tune, that could be quite the difference maker.

Thus, Nintendo's exclusives have a bigger impact on Nintendo's hardware sales. Pokemon+Smash is an extremely formidable opponent for Sony. 

Wal-Mart. Give it a few more years though and Amazon will start winning this consistently.

3DS did have a Smash+Pokemon combo back in 2014 but the circumstances were a bit different.

1. 3DS was in its 4th holiday and had a price cut, 2 revisions and many bundles by this time, Switch will only be in its 2nd holiday, has yet to receive a price cut, revisions or value bundles.

2. Pokemon was a remake and the 2nd pair of Pokemon games on the system. If Pokemon releases this holiday on Switch it will be a new generation and the series debut on the system.

3. Smash Bros had to share a release with the Wii U version which released about 1.5 months later. Smash Bros on Switch doesnt have to worry about sharing sales with another system.

3DS did well in Q4 2014 (~1.5m) with Smash+Pokemon but not amazing but those points i outlined above means a Smash+Pokemon combo along with a Black Friday discount or bundle gives Switch significantly higher potential than 3DS had in 2014.

Because their games never seem to turn out to be as good as they should be.

It's crazy reading this thread and everyone thinking their favorite console won last holiday season when one of the first post has the numbers from last holiday lol.

Anyway Sony will win this holiday with nintendo in second. Sony won't take December off this year when it comes to deals. Plus I see a price cut happening in September or October. Although that could hurt their Holiday sales if people buy early. Think they will be able to hit $199 again this Black Friday and also do a $249 RDR bundle for December.