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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predicting Switch sales

Megiddo said:
I would hope that as well but just having ~5-10% of the people who bought the big Nintendo games buying the big 3rd party games (Skyrim, FIFA, Doom) on the Switch is not a good sign. What's even more bizarre is when I see people tout those numbers as being good for 3rd parties on this website. It's not. Switch is doing great with indies. Not with big third party publishers at retail. Its on track to have much less software parity than the Wii, and I'm not seeing any recognition of this issue by anybody.

Yeah and it does get alot of indies flocking to it because of it.
Which is kinda cool, some of them are pretty intresting because they try things (concepts) that these bigger 3rd party wouldnt.



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I definitely agree. Indie games can be extremely enjoyable and just as fun to play as AAA games. I'm not disparaging them at all. I'm just saying there is a difference between indie game devs stating that the Switch has been great for sales and the thoughts of big third party developers. I'm not trying to spread doom. I'm just saying that paying close attention to how Dark Souls Remastered and Wolfenstein II do on the Switch will be far more important to the Switch's third party success than making a thread about how a indie Zelda clone or 2d platformed did so much better on Switch than any other system.



Megiddo said:
I would hope that as well but just having ~5-10% of the people who bought the big Nintendo games buying the big 3rd party games (Skyrim, FIFA, Doom) on the Switch is not a good sign. What's even more bizarre is when I see people tout those numbers as being good for 3rd parties on this website. It's not. Switch is doing great with indies. Not with big third party publishers at retail. Its on track to have much less software parity than the Wii, and I'm not seeing any recognition of this issue by anybody.

But a lot of the current AAA third party support on the switch have only been testing the waters with late ports already played to death on other consoles or castrated games. For what EA did with FIFA relative to other versions but selling at same price, they should be over the moon that anyone bought it at all, much more that it is anywhere close to 1m in sales.



JRPGfan said:
Jumpin said:

I don’t think 3DS is even close to the Wii, to be honest. Some of the games on Wii included:

 

  • Super Mario Galaxy  (I give you this one)
  • Wii Sports
  • Legend of Zelda  (3ds has plenty of)
  • Super Paper Mario  (this was a horrible paper mario game)
  • Metroid Prime
  • Fire Emblem (3ds has plenty of, and better version that the wii had)
  • WarioWare  (really?)
  • Forever Blue/Endless Ocean
  • Resident Evil 4  (3ds has plenty of)
  • Resident Evil Umbrella Chronicles (3ds has plenty of)
  • Call of Duty 3 and 4 
  • Medal of Honour
  • Okami
  • Fifa  (sports games, who cares really?)
  • PES  (sports games, who cares really?)
  • Tiger Woods PGA (sports games, who cares really?)
  • Madden NFL  (sports games, who cares really?)
  • SSX (sports games, who cares really?)
  • Tony Hawk (sports games, who cares really?)
  • Need for Speed
  • Far Cry
  • Bully
  • Splinter Cell
  • Prince of Persia
  • Driver
  • Guitar Hero
  • Rock Band
  • The Godfather
  • Scarface
  • Zack and Wiki
  • Geometry Wars (indies?)
  • The Simpsons Game
  • Trauma Center
  • Elebits
  • Spyro the Dragon
  • No More Heroes
  • Red Steel
  • Harvest Moon (Story of Seasons) (3ds has plenty of)
And that’s just one year of releases.

Since we’re counting games a console has access to, the Wii had access to the Gamecube library and the most extensive back catalogue virtual console of any console existing. 
The real story is that Wii launched with what turned out to be the biggest killer app in videogame history, and capped off its first year with one of the most critically acclaimed games in history. In its lifetime the 3DS didn’t have any games of this caliber.

 

 

But how many "meaty" proper full length high quality RPGs did the wii have? man it was slim pickings.
3DS owns the Wii+Gamecube when it comes to RPGs to a degree, I think 3DS is a better game library.

I dont "feel" like the wii had that many standout titles tbh.
You got a Wii, the must haves where like:

Xenoblade Chronicles (which 3ds also has)
the Mario Galaxy (I&II) games
Resident Evil 4
DKC-Returns
Skyward Sword

5 big "must have"s imo, but the 3DS has tons of games at that level.

You claim that 3DS has tons of games of Super Mario Galaxy 1 and 2 level games? Where are they?

http://www.gamerankings.com/browse.html?site=wii&cat=0&year=0&numrev=1&sort=0&letter=&search=

Top 10 3DS Games: 

3DS The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
GREZZO/Nintendo, 2011
93.89%
59 Reviews
3DS Fire Emblem: Awakening
Intelligent Systems/Nintendo, 2013
92.52%
52 Reviews
3DS Pushmo
Intelligent Systems/Nintendo, 2011
91.50%
21 Reviews
3DS The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds
Nintendo, 2013
90.55%
55 Reviews
3DS The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D
GREZZO/Nintendo, 2015
90.39%
58 Reviews
3DS Super Mario 3D Land
Nintendo, 2011
90.09%
56 Reviews
3DS Fire Emblem Fates: Special Edition
Intelligent Systems/Nintendo, 2016
89.07%
22 Reviews
3DS Colors! 3D
Collecting Smiles, 2012
88.38%
13 Reviews
3DS Pokemon Sun
Game Freak/Nintendo, 2016
87.94%
52 Reviews
3DS Pokemon Y
Game Freak/Nintendo, 2013
87.89%

Nope, I don't see them. And don't say "Super Mario 3D Land" because it's not even close.  Perhaps you thought the 4th port of Ocarina of Time? Or Pushmo?

I'll put in the Top 10 Wii games as an exclamation point:

WII Super Mario Galaxy
Nintendo, 2007
97.64%
78 Reviews
WII Super Mario Galaxy 2
Nintendo EAD Tokyo /Nintendo, 2010
97.35%
56 Reviews
WII The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
Nintendo, 2006
94.58%
84 Reviews
WII World of Goo
2D Boy, 2008
94.04%
23 Reviews
WII The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword
Nintendo, 2011
93.15%
61 Reviews
WII Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Game Arts/Nintendo, 2008
92.84%
78 Reviews
WII Metroid Prime Trilogy
Retro Studios/Nintendo, 2009
92.35%
34 Reviews
WII Xenoblade Chronicles
Monolith Soft/Nintendo, 2012
91.74%
42 Reviews
WII Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition
Capcom, 2007
91.59%
61 Reviews
WII Rayman Origins
UBlart Montpellier/Ubisoft, 2011
91.27%

And crossing out a bunch of games doesn't make them disappear. Wii Sports was the most successful killer app in videogame history.
You crossed out Resident Evil 4 and said 3DS has this, what?
You crossed of Super Paper Mario, claiming it was horrible, in what regard? Critically the game scored very well. Perhaps you meant commercially? Nope, it's the best selling in the franchise.

You claim the 3DS has "meaty high-quality RPGs," where are these? It has a Fire Emblem and an inferior port of Xenoblade Chronicles which doesn't work on most 3DSs. You mentioned the backwards compatible DS to further flesh it out. Since you count ports and backwards compatibility, well... the Wii has enough ammunition to demolish the 3DS multiple times over:
* Xenoblade Chronicles
* Rune Factory Frontier and Oceans
* The Last Story
* Tales of Symphonia 1 and 2
* Pandora's Tower
* Little King's Story
* Skies of Arcadia Legends
* Dragon Quest X and Tales of Graces in Japan/Import
* Fire Emblem Path of Radiance & Radiant Dawn
* Final Fantasy 1, 4, 6, Mystic Quest (SNES version), and AY
* Secret of Mana
* Chrono Trigger
* Phantasy Star 1, 2, 3, 4
* Ys Book 1 and 2
* Star Tropics
* Super Mario RPG
* Paper Mario 1 and 2
* Beyond Oasis
* Shining Force 1 and 2
* ActRaiser
* Breath of Fire
* Ogre Battle 1 and 64

From what I can tell, you haven't been able to show how 3DS's lineup matches one year of Wii. It certainly doesn't top the lifetime critically or commercially; ports and backward compatibility or not.

 

Don’t get me wrong, I loved the 3DS, but it ranks lowest of Nintendo’s handhelds for me, and doesn’t come anywhere near the Wii. I’d even say the Switch already has a more interesting library as I definitely played a lot more Switch in its first year than perhaps any two years of the 3DS - and I am primarily a handheld gaming fan.

Last edited by Jumpin - on 08 April 2018

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

"You claim the 3DS has "meaty high-quality RPGs," where are these? It has a Fire Emblem and an inferior port of Xenoblade Chronicles which doesn't work on most 3DSs. You mentioned the backwards compatible DS to further flesh it out. Since you count ports and backwards compatibility, well... the Wii has enough ammunition to demolish the 3DS multiple times over:

* Xenoblade Chronicles (3ds has)
* Rune Factory Frontier and Oceans (spin offs, never played tho)
* The Last Story (I never got the hype for this game, its way overhyped imo)
* Tales of Symphonia 1 and 2 (their okay, but they dont even reach the "knee"'s of a DQ or FF game)
* Pandora's Tower (again okay but slightly overhyped)
* Little King's Story (more of a pikman esk strategy game? than a rpg, and again kinda meh)
* Skies of Arcadia Legends (okay this is cool, and a "meaty" rpg)
* Dragon Quest X and Tales of Graces in Japan/Import (a poor mmo, drawing on DQ brand name to sell)
* Fire Emblem Path of Radiance & Radiant Dawn (I vastly prefer the 3DS fire-emblem games) "


^ is this a joke? this proves my point.

"* Final Fantasy 1, 4, 6, Mystic Quest (SNES version), and AY
* Secret of Mana
* Chrono Trigger (amasing game, and rpg)
* Phantasy Star 1, 2, 3, 4
* Ys Book 1 and 2
* Star Tropics
* Super Mario RPG (amasing game, and rpg)
* Paper Mario 1 and 2
* Beyond Oasis
* Shining Force 1 and 2
* ActRaiser   (this isnt a rpg)
* Breath of Fire
* Ogre Battle 1 and 64  (tactics game)"

^ stacking the "wii"'s super good rpg list, with ooooooooold SNES/Mega Drive games (to make it seem like the Wii had rpgs)?

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 08 April 2018

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Jumpin look at this: DS+3DS

DQ series:
Dragon Quest IV: Chapters of the Chosen (DS)
Dragon Quest V: Hand of the Heavenly Bride (DS)
Dragon Quest VI: Realms of Revelation (DS)
Dragon Quest VII: Fragments of the Forgotten Past (3ds)
Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King (3ds)
Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies (DS)

Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry's Wonderland 3D (3ds) (fan translation)
Dragon Quest Heroes: Rocket Slime (DS)
Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker (DS)
Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 2 (DS)
Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 (3ds) (fan translation)

^ that alone beats all the RPGs the Wii had imo.

The 3ds just has sooo much more high quality "meaty" RPGs.



JRPGfan said:
Jumpin look at this: DS+3DS

DQ series:
Dragon Quest IV: Chapters of the Chosen (DS)
Dragon Quest V: Hand of the Heavenly Bride (DS)
Dragon Quest VI: Realms of Revelation (DS)
Dragon Quest VII: Fragments of the Forgotten Past (3ds)
Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King (3ds)
Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies (DS)

Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry's Wonderland 3D (3ds) (fan translation)
Dragon Quest Heroes: Rocket Slime (DS)
Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker (DS)
Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 2 (DS)
Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 (3ds) (fan translation)

^ that alone beats all the RPGs the Wii had imo.

The 3ds just has sooo much more high quality "meaty" RPGs.

You literally just complained about me using ports and RPGs from previous consoles. Then respond with this?

You keep changing your own rules in every post, so I don't see how you expect me to take you seriously.

Last edited by Jumpin - on 08 April 2018

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Jumpin said:
JRPGfan said:
Jumpin look at this: DS+3DS

DQ series:
Dragon Quest IV: Chapters of the Chosen (DS)
Dragon Quest V: Hand of the Heavenly Bride (DS)
Dragon Quest VI: Realms of Revelation (DS)
Dragon Quest VII: Fragments of the Forgotten Past (3ds)
Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King (3ds)
Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies (DS)

Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry's Wonderland 3D (3ds) (fan translation)
Dragon Quest Heroes: Rocket Slime (DS)
Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker (DS)
Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 2 (DS)
Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 (3ds) (fan translation)

^ that alone beats all the RPGs the Wii had imo.

The 3ds just has sooo much more high quality "meaty" RPGs.

You literally just complained about me using ports and RPGs from previous consoles. Then respond with this?

You keep changing your own rules in every post, so I don't see how you expect me to take you seriously.

1) surely you can see the differnce? When your stacking the wii library with old snes/mega drive games? vs DS games.
2) I never changed any rules, I said from the start that the 3DS because it can also play DS games, is a much stronger game catalog than the wii's.

DS was right before the 3DS....... while the SNES/Mega drive are how many gens behinde the Wii ? or our current gens?

When you have to pad your list to prove a point with games that are 25-30 years old, you lost the argument.
For some reason you dont like the idea of the 3DS haveing a better games catalog for RPGs than the Wii, dispite it being that way.



JRPGfan said:
Jumpin said:

You literally just complained about me using ports and RPGs from previous consoles. Then respond with this?

You keep changing your own rules in every post, so I don't see how you expect me to take you seriously.

1) surely you can see the differnce? When your stacking the wii library with old snes/mega drive games? vs DS games.
2) I never changed any rules, I said from the start that the 3DS because it can also play DS games, is a much stronger game catalog than the wii's.

DS was right before the 3DS....... while the SNES/Mega drive are how many gens behinde the Wii ? or our current gens?

When you have to pad your list to prove a point with games that are 25-30 years old, you lost the argument.
For some reason you dont like the idea of the 3DS haveing a better games catalog for RPGs than the Wii, dispite it being that way.

Is this a joke? You just made a list padded with ports of remakes of games from the SNES (and NES) that are 25-30 years old.

Basically, what you are trying to argue is that old games count toward the 3DS library, somehow we're supposed to imagine they don't exist in the Wii library. 
If we're arguing what the best library of games are, and including catalogue and ports, then that must remain consistent across both consoles - all games are relevant. There's no reason to ignore facts, consistency, and reality.

It sounds more like your goal isn't actually understanding why the 3DS sold as little as it did.
You seem mostly concerned about trying to win an argument on the Internet.

But here's the reality:
* Wii sold 30 million units more than the 3DS, despite not being supported as long.
* Wii sold 650,000,000 more software units than the 3DS, over three times the volume.
* Wii is Nintendo's highest revenue generating platform of all time.
* Super Mario Galaxy 1 and 2 (and no the 3DS doesn't have "a ton" of games of that quality) are two of the top 5 most critically acclaimed games of all time.
* Even without Super Mario Galaxy 1 and 2, Wii's software library has received substantially more critical praise than the 3DS - despite the handicap of having a lot of software that critics generally aren't fond of.

I like the 3DS, I'm actually primarily a handheld gamer, but the reality is that 3DS is far from Nintendo's best jaunt; and it doesn't have the all-time best library you claim it does. It's clear the Wii outclasses it.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.