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Forums - Sales Discussion - Amazon U.S. April bestsellers and general Amazon-based discussion

Nuvendil said:
quickrick said:

Mario kart did 38 million on wii, so i don't think we should look at the wii for reference, to what a franchise baseline. i know what he was referring too basically wiiu vs switch in terms of how games are selling.

Well I would say Smash definitely has more of a core-gamer leaning, for lack of a better term.  And also did not benefit at all from the motion control craze that helped Mario Kart grow that much.  So much like 3D Mario, I think the Wii is a fine enough metric in this instance.  Plus when you compare Brawl to Melee, the growth in sales relative to growth in install base is well within acceptable levels.  

it didn't benefit as much as mario kart, but when a system is selling 600-700k on regular months just in the US, i'm sure smash got a nice benefit out of it . 



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quickrick said:
tbone51 said:

Omg what the hell! Why do you bring up points that no brings up? 

 

That said MK8D is a port thats going to sell at least 15mil lifetime.... How in the hell do you think a new MK would of sold if a port sold that much lol? If switch does close to 100mil a mk9 could do 30mil+

umm being port is a huge benefit,  because mario kart can come out so early in the system life time, and there are very little options, plus most who owned wiiu were hardcore nintendo fans i'm sure most would double dip for a portable version, not to mention the extra modes and 1080p. zelda on wii was a GC port yet it destroyed skyward in sales, also mario galaxy came out when wii install base was samll yet it out sold mario galaxy 2 by a huge amount. when ever mario kart 9 comes out it won't outsell mario kart 8.

Galaxy 2 is different though.  It's a sequel to a Wii exclusive game.  Mario Kart 9 will be a brand new Mario Kart.  Also you have to look at surrounding market conditions.  Skyward Sword is especially glaring.  Twilight Princess generated an obscene amount of hype in the build up to release, was a launch title, and Nintendo's marketing early on was extremely aggressive and prolific.  By contrast, when Skyward Sword launched the hype was pretty low key, the reception to previews much less positive, and Nintendo's marketing in 2011 wasn't so much low key as borderline non-existent.  Nintendo really had 3 big releases to bookend the Wii's life:  Last Story, Xenoblade, and Skyward Sword.  None of them were well advertised, two of them completely unadvertised.  Nintendo's marketing in the last years of the Wii's life was notoriously low key.  Plus, Skyward Sword launched *after* the Wii U's announcement.



quickrick said:
Nuvendil said:

Well I would say Smash definitely has more of a core-gamer leaning, for lack of a better term.  And also did not benefit at all from the motion control craze that helped Mario Kart grow that much.  So much like 3D Mario, I think the Wii is a fine enough metric in this instance.  Plus when you compare Brawl to Melee, the growth in sales relative to growth in install base is well within acceptable levels.  

it didn't benefit as much as mario kart, but when a system is selling 600-700k on regular months just in the US, i'm sure smash got a nice benefit out of it . 

Well obviously, bigger consumer base=more consumers to sell to.



If you list enough excuses, at some point you might find a valid one.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

People are talking about the possibility of Gow4 outselling Smash 5?

God of War sales (as of 2012)

God of War - 4.62 million
God of War 2 - 4.25 million
God of War 3 - 5.20 million

 

Super Smash Bros sales (as of 2017)

Super Smash Bros - 5.55 million
Super Smash Bros. Melee - 7.41 million
Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 13.25 million
Super Smash Bros. 4 - 14.51 million

 

First, let's already start saying that the best selling GoW game isn't even as big as the worst selling Smash game, which was also the first...

Second, no doubt both series had a growh, but we are in a different level there, like, God of War was selling pretty much 4/5 million for game, with GOW3 being the best selling, and the new God of War has a new formula which will help to be way bigger... it may possible sell 10 million or more, not saying it can't.

 

But Smash? I mean, let's start saying EVERY GAME sold better than the previus entry. But the true story of smash is pretty much that every game has something which hold down the sales.

First, Smash 64, easy to understand, it was the first entry and as a new IP it wasn't that big. (even though it included famous IP, but people were not confident with the gameplay)

Smash melee, well outside of the fact that it had A LOT of new mechanics, and was 100 times better than Smash 64, it was the launch game of a console, which surely helped the sales. What didn't help? The fact that the console was the gamecube. On a biggest console, it could have sold SO much more...

Brawl, It comes after amazing word of mouch from Melee, and on a BIG userbase. So far all good. What went wrong? Bad word of mouth, for reasons that most Smash fans already know. The game the biggest launch ever for a Nintendo game, it was huge (2.7 million in one month in USA, 800K first week in Japan ecc) , but the legs were pretty bad for a Nintendo game, indeed with a launch like this people would have expect way more (like 20 million considering the big success of the Wii and the big launch, some people were predicting it to outsell GTA IV lifetime) and it only stopped at 13 million.

Smash 4, the good thing is that it comes on 2 platforms. The bad thing is that the combined sales of the 2 platforms are still below the Wii, and also it comes after the not so good reception of Brawl. It was Smash, so it still has a very strong launch, but nowhere as big as Brawl. Guess what? In the end, the game was able to outsell Smash Brawl, and become the biggest game of the franchise. Smaller launch, but good word of mouch helped it for having better legs.

 

 

Now, Smash 5. The "bad thing" is that it won't have 2 versions... but i don't think it will hurt sales so much. The good things, however:

 

  • It comes after Smash 4, which had a good word of mouth
  • Literally every Smash sold better than the previus one, the series is growing every games
  • It's on the Switch, which is most likely gonna be the best selling console of a Smash game, or at least super close to the Wii
  • Literally every Nintendo series had a big growh on Switch. It is just looks like Nintendo IP are stronger than ever right now, and if Mario 3D can ship 9 million in 2 months, what can we expect from Smash?
  • It will be good? Why not? Basically, Smash 5 could be what Brawl should have been. If Smash 5 has good word of mouth, comes out after Smash 4 and on a successful platform, it will do insane.
So, in conclusion... Smash 4 should end at 15 million units (cause is still selling) and i don't see Smash 5 selling less than that. At worst, it will sell as much as Smash 4, but right now i'm thinking 20 million could happen, depend on the game itself.
And no, i just don't see GoW4 being close to Smash 5, even if it surpass 10 million.

 



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zorg1000 said:
If you list enough excuses, at some point you might find a valid one.

I don't think i need to make excuses for what i'm predicting. 



CalmFire said:
Now the PSN cards are gone.

Sony and Amazon need to rectify this!

There is something bigger between Amazon and Sony, try to pre-order  Detroit, Spiderman, Days Gone all upcoming sony's first party games are unavailable to pre-order or not listed.

I have noticed this trend since last year, first thing I noticed was amazon.us suddenly making some Sony's games as not elegible to be send to México (knack 2 being the first then Horizon Zero dawn complete edition, then god of war and so on)

Last edited by Kairos - on 17 April 2018

quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:
If you list enough excuses, at some point you might find a valid one.

I don't think i need to make excuses for what i'm predicting. 

Only goalpost. Look above your last post Ryng put out a good analysis for you. 

 

I too think GoW will do something similar to BotW and sell do wonders for the franchise. Hell it can break 10mil too.

That said when it comes to smash you dont have a clue what your talking about



God of War 4 wont beat smash but i think it will be the ebst selling God of War. I'm expecting 8-9m lifetime.



tbone51 said:
quickrick said:

I don't think i need to make excuses for what i'm predicting. 

Only goalpost. Look above your last post Ryng put out a good analysis for you. 

 

I too think GoW will do something similar to BotW and sell do wonders for the franchise. Hell it can break 10mil too.

That said when it comes to smash you dont have a clue what your talking about

He did something similar with Animal Crossing recently as well. He wanted to use the GC/Wii versions that sold ~3-4m to prove AC isnt that big but would ignore the DS/3DS entries that did ~12m each.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.