Lets assume VGC numbers are close for X1, I'll say 43-45 million by 2019. I see Switch selling 15-18 million in 2018. So like 28-30 million by 2019. 7 million X1's in 2019 taking it to 50-52 million. 20 million Switches in 2019 taking it to 48-50 million by Jan 2020. I see it being some time in 2020.

Of course we have no idea how the sales of the Switch will turn out per year. The 3DS also sold 13 million or so in it's launch year, while down compared to the Switch, it's not yet a blow out. 3DS later proved that about 14 million was it's upper limit. I expect the Switch to fare better, but these 24+ million years some are touting seem like hyperbole.

The Xbox One should sell 55-60 million lifetime, while the Switch could do anywhere from 80-100+ million depending on it's time on the market.

I honestly don't see it that way, unbundling kinect was surely a solution to a problem they created themselves and many of their exclusives are now also on PC and not even inferior versions either, many run better than on Xbox. I think they have failed to create exclusive content with worldwide appeal and their standard xbox one hardware is similarly priced to ps4 and the xbox one X is some way above PS4 Pro in pricing. So many reasons to choose playstation over xbox but so few reasons to choose Xbox over Playstation especially if you PC game as well. Still love my Xbox One but it's hard to recommend to others nowadays especially here in the UK.  Also Sunset Overdrive was terrible, not something I enjoyed playing to say the least and that's coming from someone who absolutely adored all their Resistance games on ps3 and still play them to this day occasionally. Sea of Thieves while beautiful is more work in progress needing more content. Looking forward to playing it perhaps in 6 months when the whole game is there.

Kimishima says 20 million (not an official forcast) and you assume that means 25-30 million? Makes sense.

Just because their plans arent working doesnt mean they arent trying hard.

You obviously can't compare the SNES generation with this generation. The gaming industry was tiny back then. Xbox One is a failure compared to its predecessor and compared to its competitors and those are the only relevant metrics.

compared to its predacessor, its only slightly behind Xbox 360 when launches are aligned. Compared to the PS4, yeah, I guess you can say its failure. But its other competition was the wii u. Compared to that, it was a success.

42% XB1 worth sales in little over a year ... of course it's going to outsell it.

The 5th X Box will be the XB2?  

Unless Microsoft has something hidden, yes, NSW may beat it before 2020

Yes, it kind of was an April Fool's topic -- and also a take on Xeno's Arrow Paradox ("by the time Switch reaches XBOX One, it will have pulled ahead, etc.)

But glad to see so many interesting responses. On the other hand, it is still a useful reminder that the Switch is unlikely to catch up with PS4, let alone XBOX One (before 2020, at least). By then, we could well be looking at Sony's and Microsoft's next-gen systems.

Not that the Switch is affected by the competition. It seems to be working very well for Nintendo to have abandoned the direct head-on battle with Sony and MS.