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Can the Switch realistically surpass XBOX One's sales figures?

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Will the Switch surpass XBOX One?

Yes, in 2018. 14 11.11%
 
Yes, in 2019. 61 48.41%
 
Yes, in 2020. 38 30.16%
 
Not before next-gen conso... 3 2.38%
 
No, it will do well in 2018 and then drop. 2 1.59%
 
No, it will perform until 2019, then drop. 2 1.59%
 
No, it will never match 2017 in sales number. 6 4.76%
 
Total:126
EricHiggin said:
zorg1000 said:

Microsoft has fought their asses off all generation, unbundled Kinect, multiple price reductions, 2 revisions, released their biggest IP (Halo, Gears, Forza), has full AAA support, paid for exclusives/timed exclusives (Titanfall, Tomb Raider, PUBG), released a handful of new IP (Sunset Overdrive, Quantum Break, ReCore, Sea of Thieves). They just cant seem to get out of that ~8 million/year baseline.

It may not be a bad thing for XB actually. As long as the 'XB2' launch goes much smoother. While the 360 was a strong launch and a massive improvement in many ways, just focus on the fact that the 360 was unexpected and a true underdog. People love when an underdog rises up and goes above and beyond. If 'XB2' has next gen level hardware that matches the price, and that price is reasonable, then a worthy and more lengthy list of exclusives to go with that launch and the following years, could very well give 'XB2' the same boost that 360 had. Right now, while there is still room to go down since they aren't hurting that bad overall at this point, especially in comparison to the 360 sales, XB has plenty of room to move up and improve, which makes them potentially dangerous.

I see XB1 coasting for the rest of this gen for the most part, so it leads me to believe that we will see Switch surpassing it by the end of 2019, which may be short lived if we see a 2020 'XB2'.

Thing about 360 is the were factors that fell into their favour MS forced a new gen and forced a massive power jump in going HD this caused development costs to spike meaning many developers couldn't afford to be exclusive unless the platform holder footed cost, this was a major blow for Sony back then as they thrived off exclusives but at the same time it caused them to poured more investments into their first party for the future something MS didn't focus on as much. XB1 had no such factors fall into place for it so the gen normalised and tbh I don't see things getting better for their next platform as the library's pulling power has diminished some what this gen as a result of not properly focusing on first party investment.



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If the current trend continues, then yes, Switch could outsell XboxOne before MS launches XboxTwo.



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Wyrdness said:
EricHiggin said:

It may not be a bad thing for XB actually. As long as the 'XB2' launch goes much smoother. While the 360 was a strong launch and a massive improvement in many ways, just focus on the fact that the 360 was unexpected and a true underdog. People love when an underdog rises up and goes above and beyond. If 'XB2' has next gen level hardware that matches the price, and that price is reasonable, then a worthy and more lengthy list of exclusives to go with that launch and the following years, could very well give 'XB2' the same boost that 360 had. Right now, while there is still room to go down since they aren't hurting that bad overall at this point, especially in comparison to the 360 sales, XB has plenty of room to move up and improve, which makes them potentially dangerous.

I see XB1 coasting for the rest of this gen for the most part, so it leads me to believe that we will see Switch surpassing it by the end of 2019, which may be short lived if we see a 2020 'XB2'.

Thing about 360 is the were factors that fell into their favour MS forced a new gen and forced a massive power jump in going HD this caused development costs to spike meaning many developers couldn't afford to be exclusive unless the platform holder footed cost, this was a major blow for Sony back then as they thrived off exclusives but at the same time it caused them to poured more investments into their first party for the future something MS didn't focus on as much. XB1 had no such factors fall into place for it so the gen normalised and tbh I don't see things getting better for their next platform as the library's pulling power has diminished some what this gen as a result of not properly focusing on first party investment.

My point wasn't that 'XB2' will turn out exactly like 7th gen in terms of sales specifically. Simply that the possibility for that this gen, is long over, and has been for a while now, so being in the position they are, they have a chance to "start fresh" in a way, and bring overall sales more into balance next gen. There is nothing stopping XB from building up their first party, and it's what they need to do is they are going to follow the console formula. However, PS isn't just going to sit around and watch, so XB will more than likely always be an underdog, but they can greatly reduce this by investing more in first party going forward. When you are in the position PS is now, at the peak of the mountain, staying up there consistently for a long period of time is not easy, and it's a potentially long fall if you can't defend your position. When your competition has the resources that XB does, you can never get to comfortable up there.



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I say 2019 will be the year,definitely



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Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

Microsoft has fought their asses off all generation, unbundled Kinect, multiple price reductions, 2 revisions, released their biggest IP (Halo, Gears, Forza), has full AAA support, paid for exclusives/timed exclusives (Titanfall, Tomb Raider, PUBG), released a handful of new IP (Sunset Overdrive, Quantum Break, ReCore, Sea of Thieves). They just cant seem to get out of that ~8 million/year baseline.

Most of those are fighting for American/UK customers, who are notably disloyal. When they could be fighting more for European customers or in other areas like South America. Take Fifa away from Sony instead of the Madden deal or release more games to european taste.

Idk fighting against Sony in Europe would just be fighting a losing battle.

All of Nintendo's handhelds, Wii and now Switch have been moderate to huge hits in Europe but they are/were different enough that they dont compete head on with PS home consoles, the same cannot be said for Xbox.

 

360 did very well in Europe but alot of that was due to Sony shooting themselves in the foot in the first few years of PS3. If you have to rely on your competition to fail in order to succeed than you're not in a good position.

 

Im pretty sure ive read that EA has a legal obligation to release FIFA on any device where it financially makes sense to be on so MS cant just get FIFA as an exclusive and even if they could it would cost such a huge amount since FIFA sells so much more on PS.

 

Im not saying they cant improve their standing in places like Europe or South America but in order to gain serious ground they need 1 of 2 things to happen.

1. Change the philosphy of Xbox entirely so its not a direct competitor to PS that can co-exist like GB, DS, Wii or Switch.

2. Hope that Sony fucks up big while not making any major mistakes and steal a decent chunk of their fanbase like 360.



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I think it will in early 2020.



zorg1000 said:
Farsala said:

Most of those are fighting for American/UK customers, who are notably disloyal. When they could be fighting more for European customers or in other areas like South America. Take Fifa away from Sony instead of the Madden deal or release more games to european taste.

Idk fighting against Sony in Europe would just be fighting a losing battle.

All of Nintendo's handhelds, Wii and now Switch have been moderate to huge hits in Europe but they are/were different enough that they dont compete head on with PS home consoles, the same cannot be said for Xbox.

 

360 did very well in Europe but alot of that was due to Sony shooting themselves in the foot in the first few years of PS3. If you have to rely on your competition to fail in order to succeed than you're not in a good position.

 

Im pretty sure ive read that EA has a legal obligation to release FIFA on any device where it financially makes sense to be on so MS cant just get FIFA as an exclusive and even if they could it would cost such a huge amount since FIFA sells so much more on PS.

 

Im not saying they cant improve their standing in places like Europe or South America but in order to gain serious ground they need 1 of 2 things to happen.

1. Change the philosphy of Xbox entirely so its not a direct competitor to PS that can co-exist like GB, DS, Wii or Switch.

2. Hope that Sony fucks up big while not making any major mistakes and steal a decent chunk of their fanbase like 360.

Europe and Others are their best chances for any growth considering Japan. With US, they seem to be guaranteed 20m on any console with their first party lineup and holiday strategy. Of course they will need something to stand apart from Sony, but they could also try heavy advertising, and more games suited for the audience instead of US. I live in the US so I don't actually know the situation in Europe, but here they advertise as much as Sony if not more. But I think they advertise less in Europe thus I think the same budget as Sony allocates to Europe could be quite impactful.

 

Admittably Sea of Thieves, Tomb Raider, and Sunset Overdrive were good attempts for Europe compared to the FPS, but they all didn't sell well enough. A good seller in Europe is needed, they just need to find what it is.



Farsala said:

Europe and Others are their best chances for any growth considering Japan. With US, they seem to be guaranteed 20m on any console with their first party lineup and holiday strategy. Of course they will need something to stand apart from Sony, but they could also try heavy advertising, and more games suited for the audience instead of US. I live in the US so I don't actually know the situation in Europe, but here they advertise as much as Sony if not more. But I think they advertise less in Europe thus I think the same budget as Sony allocates to Europe could be quite impactful.

 

Admittably Sea of Thieves, Tomb Raider, and Sunset Overdrive were good attempts for Europe compared to the FPS, but they all didn't sell well enough. A good seller in Europe is needed, they just need to find what it is.

Not going to happen unless Sony cocks up, EU is a solid region for the PS brand of consoles as it was the first brand that managed EU well and still does most people in EU will tend to buy the go to brand and nothing else that tries to compete with it you need more than advertising over here you need a powerful library people can't get else where  (I'm not talking about a few game I main an entire library of hits) or establish your own identity like Nintendo did.

MS have tried to show themselves as another Sony and doesn't work in EU only region you might have some success is UK which has often been a random part of the PAL region in itself.



Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

Idk fighting against Sony in Europe would just be fighting a losing battle.

All of Nintendo's handhelds, Wii and now Switch have been moderate to huge hits in Europe but they are/were different enough that they dont compete head on with PS home consoles, the same cannot be said for Xbox.

 

360 did very well in Europe but alot of that was due to Sony shooting themselves in the foot in the first few years of PS3. If you have to rely on your competition to fail in order to succeed than you're not in a good position.

 

Im pretty sure ive read that EA has a legal obligation to release FIFA on any device where it financially makes sense to be on so MS cant just get FIFA as an exclusive and even if they could it would cost such a huge amount since FIFA sells so much more on PS.

 

Im not saying they cant improve their standing in places like Europe or South America but in order to gain serious ground they need 1 of 2 things to happen.

1. Change the philosphy of Xbox entirely so its not a direct competitor to PS that can co-exist like GB, DS, Wii or Switch.

2. Hope that Sony fucks up big while not making any major mistakes and steal a decent chunk of their fanbase like 360.

Europe and Others are their best chances for any growth considering Japan. With US, they seem to be guaranteed 20m on any console with their first party lineup and holiday strategy. Of course they will need something to stand apart from Sony, but they could also try heavy advertising, and more games suited for the audience instead of US. I live in the US so I don't actually know the situation in Europe, but here they advertise as much as Sony if not more. But I think they advertise less in Europe thus I think the same budget as Sony allocates to Europe could be quite impactful.

 

Admittably Sea of Thieves, Tomb Raider, and Sunset Overdrive were good attempts for Europe compared to the FPS, but they all didn't sell well enough. A good seller in Europe is needed, they just need to find what it is.

More advertising can certainly help but to what extent? I dont think people will all of a sudden pick XB over PS just because its advertised more.

Also, what exactly is "a game for Europe"? Outside of FIFA, i cant think of a game that does significantly better in Europe compared to America.



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Unless something drastic happens to Nintendo then yes the Switch will outsell the XBOX ONE.