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Can the Switch realistically surpass XBOX One's sales figures?

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Will the Switch surpass XBOX One?

Yes, in 2018. 14 11.11%
 
Yes, in 2019. 61 48.41%
 
Yes, in 2020. 38 30.16%
 
Not before next-gen conso... 3 2.38%
 
No, it will do well in 2018 and then drop. 2 1.59%
 
No, it will perform until 2019, then drop. 2 1.59%
 
No, it will never match 2017 in sales number. 6 4.76%
 
Total:126

Is this an April Fools thread, because at the rate both consoles are going, it's only a matter of time that the Switch passes the Xbox One in sales



 

              

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It is highly likely that it will outsell XB1. Its more a matter of when. I think 2020 is most likely, but I could see it taking until 2021.

I will note that Nintendo must continue to release great games in order to keep selling consoles at anything close to the rate they have so far. If Kart, Smash, and Pokemon are solid, as they always are, then I think that will be enough to keep things going for a couple years. At that point, they should be around XB1 sales.



I doubt it will before the next box drops. If Xbox sales droopped flat maybe but switch is slowing down too, still unable to grab Europe. Although with Japan now getting back on track after the 2011 tsunami who knows, maybe the numbers there will keep rising slowly. We'll know by next November whether or not it'll be able to do it.



 

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The XB1 hasn't sold that much, so it should be pretty easy for any successful console to outsell it.



Of course it will.



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John2290 said:
I doubt it will before the next box drops. If Xbox sales droopped flat maybe but switch is slowing down too, still unable to grab Europe. Although with Japan now getting back on track after the 2011 tsunami who knows, maybe the numbers there will keep rising slowly. We'll know by next November whether or not it'll be able to do it.

You're going to need to provide some evidence to back up this claim. Under no metric has it shown any signs of slowing.



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I expect it'll happen at the end of 2019 (calendar year) - sooner if Labo or any other new IP takes off. Even if something like Labo isn't a huge hit, Nintendo have a lot of momentum, established ever-green sellers (Zelda, Odyssey, Kart, Splatoon 2), more system-sellers coming (Smash, Pokemon) and that's without any new announcements at E3 or later this year. Switch is unlike anything else on the market and the concept has caught on and the software library is filling out nicely; all of these things combined suggest to me Switch will be going strong into 2019 at least (later than that will depend on Nintendo's first-party output and whether they manage the system's momentum well or allow it to drop as they did with Wii - which I think they could avoid given they're not jugging different hardware lines).



Easily. Should do it by this time next year, no problem.



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Helloplite said:

Hear me out: We all know that the Switch has been consistently outselling XBOX One, to the point that it now has nearly 40% of XBOX One's total sales, in little over a year since it launched. This is incredible, and provided Nintendo kept the same pace, and XBOX One ceased to sell at all, it would be likely that Nintendo would top its sales within 14-18 months time. 

 

Of course, the above scenario is impossible. With XBOX One X, Microsoft has managed to resurrect the platform's sales, and they could well perform much higher than anticipated in 2018. Nintendo, on the other hand, would pretty much have to surpass their first year, which sounds impossible at this moment.

 

I understand that eventually, given current trends, Switch could outsell the XBOX. But if this happens at the twilight of this generation, then it would be a Pyrrhic victory. 

 

Will the Switch surpass XBOX One (vanilla, S, and X) sales?

A Pyrrhic victory is a victory so costly that it leads to the victor eventually losing the war.  I don't see how that possibly could be applied to the Switch inevitably surpassing the Xbox One's lifetime sales figure.  Regardless of when the Xbox One is discontinued, it was at retail almost 4 years earlier than the Switch.  If the Switch surpasses its sales number at any point in the near future, which it more than likely will, there is nothing "Pyrrhic" about that.  The Xbox One X, while it re-invigorated sales of the brand recently, I would imagine that a healthy portion of those new X owners were upgrading from Xbox One S' they already owned, therefore not really increasing the Xbox One's consumer base.  If that is the case, the Xbox One's sales uptick would be the actual "Pyrrhic Victory".



I'm guessing early 2020.

Smash in September should provide an "extra" holiday season this year then there's pokemon which will sell pokemon amounts of consoles :P