Already sold 10m as of March 31st. Just to add context, it did 1.8m in the last quarter. Do you think it will only sell 2m more lifetime?

Maybe it will hit 14, still doubt itll go much higher, its too niche.

I do think you were super bold.

What kind of "niche game" sells 14m? Btw, at this rate I'd say betting anything below 15m would be bolder than my prediction.  

Actually, I'm thinking I should call it just "bold" now. Last quarterly figures surpassed all of our expectations by a lot (I myself expected about 1m shipped), but I stand by my original prediction of ~3.9m shipped this year, give or take a bit. The last figures just reinforced my prediction.

PS: BotW is at 10m as of March 31st.

Pokemon is apparently a niche franchise, as it does around 15 million these days. Aka, don’t listen to contestgamer

At BOTW’s current pace, it can easily do 15 million and probably will, and then factor in a price cut/Nintendo Select to give it even longer legs...20 million is possible now.

If BOTW is 15 million by this time next year, you can count on 20 million. A select and some time will certainly carry it to the golden 20 million club with lifetime sales.

It will be close. 15 million is safe. With a Nintendo selects version, this could be possible, the question is will we still see Nintendo selects? Will they still be 20 dollars / euros or will they be 30 dollars / euros for the cost of the cartridges?

To make a title that made 10M on its first year into a LT 20M is no small task.

Somewhere down the road I expect something like a GOTY/Complete edition with all of the DLC included.  I'm sure that will boost sales even more.  20m is definitely doable, but in the end it might end up a little bit more or a little bit less.

BOTW has shown considerable legs to get to that 10 million already, and without any price cuts.

You do realize that Horizon, a new IP, sold 7.6 million in a year with massive price cuts, deals and a complete edition. What do you think Zelda, a long standing series that has sold even better and faster than Horizon without all of those benefits, can do once it receives them?

15 million seems like a lock. 20 million isn’t out of the question lifetime. Not for sure, but not ‘a stretch’. Just a max expectation prediction.

I know, that's why I still consider it to be bold, just not super bold anymore.

Exactly. The game will still be selling well in the next 2 years, and then Nintendo can always turn it into a Nintendo Select, cutting the price to $30, do special bundles for the holidays, etc.