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Forums - Sales Discussion - How many units do you think SWITCH will sell in 2018 (sold through)?

 

Sold through in 2018

Less than 10 million 6 5.45%
 
10 million 2 1.82%
 
12 million 1 0.91%
 
15 million 21 19.09%
 
18 million 51 46.36%
 
20 million 21 19.09%
 
25 million 3 2.73%
 
More than 25 million 5 4.55%
 
Total:110

18M, probably more if Pokémon comes out early this fall (like in October)



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CrazyGamer2017 said:
zorg1000 said:

Would you mind going into detail why you think sales will be so low?

They are forcasting to ship 20 million from April 1, 2018 to March 31, 2019. Sure, its possible that they miss their forcast but by ~8 million? I doubt thats happening.

First if they sell 12 million Switches in their second year it's not what I would call "low sales".

And to answer your question, they sold 15 million units their first year because there was Zelda BOTW that pushed the sales, I mean the vast majority of people who bought a Switch the first year did so for Zelda, the attach rate was super high, very few Switches sold with no intention of playing Zelda. Then Mario Odyssey came along and gave a push too.

But the second year you will not have such names to push sales. There certainly will be new Zelda and Mario games but not this year obviously.

Of course you can say there are other games expected this year but I don't think they will have the same impact as the first party mega names like the two I talked about. Last year nobody had a Switch so if you wanted to play Zelda you had to buy one. This year 15 million people already have a Switch so the big titles of this year will be shared between people who already own a Switch and those who don't and that means the impact on sales should not be the same as last year.

Now the Switch could very well end up selling much more than I predict but that would mean there are masses of new comers that would care to get a Switch for games that are not the big ones from Nintendo. Of course I don't know the exact schedule of releases from Nintendo so there may be big games I am not thinking of. I think I heard that there was a big Pokemon game coming and that game could seriously push sales but other than that one which big names would?  So the rest would be up to third party games or if more and more games of all genres come to the Switch, the variety could push sales up too I suppose.

The bottom line is I'm simply making a prediction without any certainty, it's just my humble opinion and I admit I don't have all the info to make a scientific prediction. Let's just say if the Switch sells 12 millions units this year, It will be a very decent figure, if it sells significantly more then I'll be officially impressed

I mean low in relation to their forcasts. 12m in itself isnt low but it is when they want it to do 20m.

Youre right that games like Zelda & Mario pushed a significant amount of consoles last year but considering that those games along with Mario Kart & Splatoon are consistently selling in the top 10/20 in US, Canada, Japan, UK, France, Germany & Spain on a weekly/monthly basis shows that these games are still moving hardware.

We have also seen very stable hardware sales so far this year. NPD has it doing 270-310k each month and Media create has it doing ~40k/week since week 2, its safe to assume Europe has been pretty stable as well. Also Nintendo reported that smaller regions like Latin America, Middle East & Asia arr seeing increased sales.

Sales are stable so far this year pretty much on the strength of last years titles along with an increased quantity of small-medium sized releases (Nintendo has a 1st party title every 2-3 weeks from late April-mid July.

As for new big tites this year, Smash Bros is set for the year and is a potential 15+ million seller along with Pokemon being highly likely (listed as a possible 2018 release by Nintendo) which is a consistent 15+ million seller. If both those titles release this than the holidays will be huge.

 

So yeah i just feel like 12 million is very low considering Nintendo is confident in shipping 20 million and they have crushed their previous Switch forcasts up to now.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Qwark said:

I think this game in general fares better as handheld game than as a full blown Console game. Which is kind of what we expect from Switch nowadays. I could be wrong though.

From all the people I know who want a Switch I heard Zelda, Smash, Mario Kart, Mario Oddesey, Pokemon and even Metroid (before both where announced) as main reasons to buy a Switch. Yet I never heard animal crossing as main reason. Perhaps Japan will love animal crossing to death.

As I said I could be wrong but I simply can't see the hype for a new animal crossing outside of fora like these. Anyway my estimate is somewhere between 17.5 and 18.5 million, pretty much equal to Playstation 4 sales which I estimate somewhere between 18.5 million and 19.5 million.

Yes Animal Crossing performs much better on handhelds, good thing Switch acts as a handheld

Well were the people you know hyped for Animal Crossing on DS or 3DS? AC is huge in Japan and in the West it is primarily played by kids & females. So im not sure if your friends are a good indication of how well a new one would do.

 

Overall i agree, i think Switch will do ~18 million.

My friends are probably not a good indication. As I said I could be wrong. Time will tell. as for this moment the Switch is on track to sell 18 million units to customers. Not too shabby although I sincerely doubt animal crossing could push that number over 20 million units. The only game that can pull that of is probably Pokemon. 



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

quickrick said:
14 million.

Would be a pretty mediocre result if you ask me.

WW sales are already 700k above last year's sales without any heavy hitter releasing, and we will come now after Goldenweek into the period where the Switch only sold around 120k weekly last year due to lack of stocks, then 160k after Obon week until the release of SMO. Switch sales haven't even dipped below 190k yet, let alone anywhere close to 120k. During Spring and summer the Switch will build up a serious lead simply because it isn't supply constrained like it was last year. To loose all that advantage during the last quarter Switch must make around Wii U numbers to not get to 15M or more.



18 million



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
quickrick said:
14 million.

Would be a pretty mediocre result if you ask me.

WW sales are already 700k above last year's sales without any heavy hitter releasing, and we will come now after Goldenweek into the period where the Switch only sold around 120k weekly last year due to lack of stocks, then 160k after Obon week until the release of SMO. Switch sales haven't even dipped below 190k yet, let alone anywhere close to 120k. During Spring and summer the Switch will build up a serious lead simply because it isn't supply constrained like it was last year. To loose all that advantage during the last quarter Switch must make around Wii U numbers to not get to 15M or more.

nobody knows, what WW sales are . all we know nintedo shipped 2.74 million as as march 30 last year, that was basically all stock sold out this quarter it's 2.93 million shipped, probably heavy stocked as they finally are able to have no more stock problems. 



18 ~ 20 million



Looks like Pokemon and Smash Bros. is a go for this year, sure its a different Pokemon, but it is still going to move a ton of hardware this year.

Will be interesting to see what the lineup looks like after E3.



Wirh only the titles we have right now, assuming there would be nothing else big coming this year (which is impossible), i dont see the Switch doing under 20 million. We are getting new genre of games and games with huge communities like Smash and pkmn. Also, this will be the first fall/holiday season without stock issues and we will most likely see some packs and deals for Black friday and christmas. Didn't they shipped 17.79 in 13 months in a launch period. No way it wont beat that number by a fair margin on a second year with those 2 games.

But we will also get other stuff announced at E3 so yea. Switch stayed at around 200k/week during the first half which had no marketing and no big games. I think people just compare it too much to the PS4 which is peaking right now or last year and had several major releases during first half.



1 trillion



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first.